RE: Dave Q&A jan 201714 Jul 2018 21:44
You misunderstand - the HRZ is the primary project because it is many times bigger than the conventional in its potential.
The plan is to keep trying to achieve a commercial flow rate, and then repeat it many times over with more wells.
We do not know what flow rate we can achieve at the FB location, and requires experimentation at this and/or other locations, using various techniques and tools until we can prove a good flow rate.
We have no idea when the flow rate (80-100 bbl/day) will be achieved - we all (inc DW) hope it will be "next time" but all we can do is keep experimenting and trying to understand the geology, the physics and the chemistry until the penny drops (finding the code).
We cannot plan a flow rate, we can only plan the extraction using some specific techniques. Having done that we can only measure the flow rate and decide whether it is good enough to be commercial - if not, we have to come up with new techniques and then plan another drilling/fracture/extraction and hope it will give us an improved flow rate next time, else rinse and repeat until it does.
Some PI's on this list have too simplistic a view and think oil exploration is a simple as a Mary Berry victoria sponge - but if she started off with 3 crocodile eggs, four pints of camel milk, a tub of pork dripping, rice flour and a bee hive, she might be able to produce something close to a victoria sponge, but would have to re-think the recipe a few times - tasting and adjusting her techniques as she goes.
As PB said, we do not fail, we simply prove that some options do not work as well as others yet to be tried (I paraphrased).