Member Info for LeMajor

Just to emphasise the irrelevance of MC in a takeover context, out of 80 or so acquisitions I covered less than 35% were quoted companies. Some were privately owned, some were divisions of larger corporates (like Smiths Industries) so the MC did not exist

I thought actuaries were more boring than accountants - what do I know.
Seriously, I have worked with many accountants, and spent 5 years managing an acquisitions team. My teams role was to establish an accurate valuation of annual income in target businesses. I am very familiar with NDA's and dealt with directors, auditors and accountants from both sides. No-one I worked with gave credance to the MC, as it had absolutely nothing to do with our valuation process. Similarly, no-one on this BB can predict to any degree of accuracy what Sareum would be worth to a major player - unless they know who that player is, and how their evaluation process works. Thoth seems to understand the industry, so has some credibility IMO, a few others come close - but in the final analysis, turnover, debt, patents, market competition, expert institutions, regulatory limitations, etc, etc, all have influence on the valuation, as do the auction participants (if more than one). The sp and it's directly related MC, at best, provides a starting point to eliminate all but serious participants.
Predicting future SP is a whole different discipline, and in that context the MC has a part to play but keep in mind it is no more than a "virtual snapshot of wishful thinking".

Mcap is simply the "market assessment" of the company value. It relates directly to the sp. ( sp* shares issued = MC). It bears no relationship to the actual value of the company, as that depends on how it fits into the strategy of the buyer. If the buyer is intent on acquiring the company because it is a competitor, its value may be less to them than a company who wants to add a new product to their range and break into a new market. Comparing MC's cuts out the need to calculate an "exchange rate" between sp's as it has already been done.

With Sierra arranging loans to make milestone payments, it suggests they'll need their ample cash reserves to step up production when NDA rubber stamps the product. Nice to know cash payout to CRUK and SAR is in the budget. I believe NDA takes 30-60 days to reach a conclusion, but when was/is the start date?

As long as HNWI's are holding, the drop is either market jitters at prolonged silence or MM's stirring the pot due to low activity (which equates to low commission).

So if Warren has put $800m inti GSK, and one of his HNW pals has lobbed a wad into SAR, are we expecting the Flood Gates (pardon the expression) to open anytime soon?

Proposition got anagrammed.

Some big buys last week, some big news this week, Ardent forecast in the 9-10p range (did they sa when?). Hopefully DKL will have a few pundits suggesting they're a good priposituin over the weekend. I hope we hit that target when the Y/E figures are formalised. A return to 14p can't come soon enough. My pension awaits.

Did DKL/LM give an indication of the salary now substituted for shared - my Tesco clubcard has an exchange rate, so what is DKL's 15/GBP or is it 20/Euro?

Should add a premium to current sp for director purchases/salary sacrifice and at least 6 month wait. Alt., buy on open market. There needs to be some incentive built into such deals.

Still conservative, but in the right ball-park. By the time the formal, audited FYE figures arrive, I would not be surprised to see less debt and reduced interest.

Sold half at 12p ish, and half again as it fell lower, still have 100k shares so I see no reason to sell cheap - just needs time to blossom.

7.9p - nuts to that! Seems modest to me as I can see 10p by end of Q1.
Couple of £10k deals this week, so could be a sign of a surge.
I'm waiting for a return to 14p and beyond once the nuts show a profit.

Nostrils aren't all they're cracked up to be neither are share certificates. Gone are the days when issuing shares meant more paper more envelopes, more stamps, more signatures and mote change of address forms, plus the time delays associated wigh snail mail. A share is just a few hundred bytes plus a few squrts of electricity or light energy into a data centre in Indo-China. Consolidation (imho) has only one practical context, and that is when x-shares in Company A are exchanged for y-shares in Company B. All other contexts are psychology based. It may well be that certain share markets have a "minimum share price" requirement - but this again is a psychology based, elitist concept.

30:1 ? I was thinking 8:1 once we have gone above 10p. I'd like to see some merit in the current sp before any consolidation and bring us in at just under £1 on implementation. I'd rather see us fall back 10% from 95p than 10% from £1.05. Once we break through £1 I want to stay above it.

I feel PH are here to head off major pharma at the pass. If BOD were subject to a takeover they could lose strategic control. II's on the other hand will give BOD more leeway to follow their dream (unless progress becomes intolerably slow).

How does Pfizer and Merk "covid pill" compare with Sar pipeline capsule?

They will multibag regardless of consolidation. It will hit the sp by 10-20% but the only advantage as I see it is that it will allow II's to get a foothold, and they (like HNWI's) will buy large at a discount and the bigger they buy, the more stable the sp will become. II's will flatten the sp volatility and eliminate the most severe spikes.

STAR did an 8:1 consolidation in Nov, taking the price to 16.5p, it now stands at 11p.
SAR is moving quicker (IMHO) so I think a dip will be short lived.
Consolidation is more about perception than fact so I think a 20:1 deal is too greedy. The humble PI would see a 500K holding drop to 25,000 - would encourage a sell-off just before consolidating. Also II's would see a direct jump to £1 (20:1) as a bit blatant with the risk that it would then immediately dip below £1. Better to see a rise of 30% to almost £1 in 6-12 months than a drop to 95p - more pleasing to their Big Gun investors.

My guess would be One new for 8 to 15 old shares (so 40p-75p) - either would put us in range for £1 by end of year.
If it is timed to coincide with a milestone payment from Sierra it could eliminate the customary 10% dip. Similarly new of a government grant would have the same effect. No fireworks, but good outlook.