Member Info for leew

If someone offered to take over COPL tomorrow for a price you don’t then take that price and minus the debt do you.

No I said the debt can be managed in many ways! If some one offers to take over a company their offer would reflect the debt!

Pilot, the debt gets managed in a million different ways in deals. You don’t buy a company and have to retire all the debt in the same transaction so not sure what you are thinking happens in a takeover.

Would be a nice end to the story and I would then retire buy. I think they will get a JV or RBL that allows COPL to increase bopd over the period of 2024/2025 from the various fields and subsequently if COPL is a £200-400m company then that might be a catalyst for a buy out in 2025/2026 as the proof would be there for someone to take less risk.

Although being very honest given the current SP if someone said to me now that someone would take all of COPL for £50-100m I would personally bite their hand off.

Look it’s here because of the financial aspects being played (imo), which means it’s not reflecting the company I.e. value disconnect. Up or down a value disconnect provides opportunity, if that’s Monday, next week, next month, year end or 2025 the opportunity outs in the end (assuming no new disaster deal / company maintains progress)

Can I ask what you have used as the total shares in issue after full conversion? Obviously I could take $70-80m and assume 2.1p a share but thought I would ask.

It was so good you felt the need to point it out again, so I assume you were 1 of the likes.

1509, I think technically improvements will be seen in July but shut offs to systems for install / commissioning will probably mean we don’t see it in the numbers. August was always my assumption on when we see some improvement and COPL will be a different beast but given the recent RNA about starting to ramp up the field I changed my assumption to oct/nov for really being able to see it in the numbers. Although I would hope the company can continue with month updates that provide a current Bopd achievement so upward trajectory is visible and understood earlier.

Sageman, 100% an issue with BH so don’t and won’t disagree but my view is we were in / around a £50m market cap company prior to the latest BH and we are now £11m so if I assume full dilution at current SP we sit around about £30m (arguments can be and on precise figure all day long).

Therefore the dilution from a financial perspective has happened + more than it should have.

Therefore when the price is further affected by a BH conversion announcement it’s basically down to sentiment and the mechanics illiquidity of the stock at that moment in time. Therefore with every announcement the disconnect can get greater and as such provides an opportunity, which I took to reduce the average.

My view is I will do very well based on my average and if it gets back to 30p (probably would need a 400-500m market cap to get there) I would be doing very well, and even if it got back to the previous BH conversion level of 5-6p I would be considerably in the black.

Organically I think they can grow now at a slow pace but still grow. The excitement is can a JV propel the growth significantly quicker.

I will only say one thing hillybilly, to make money the best way is to find shares with a SP disconnect from where its fair value could be so the risk reward is in your favour. At a market cap of 11m and a SP a 2p many people would completely disagree with your view of uninvestable and this could be the point where risk reward is within the investors favour.

There is zero point contacting art on anything, he can only say the same message over and over again unless he wants to say something in an RNA, so as you elude to Finwittrader you interpret that how it suits your narrative as that’s human nature lol.

Basically COPL (at these levels) is all about do you believe in the asset potential and ability to increase existing field production or don’t you. If you don’t I would not dare short it unless I was the one pulling the strings and I would not sell out at this level but I probably would at 5-6p. If you do believe in the potential then either buy or hold full stop.

Or take the trading approach because even if the worm turns now / soon there will be many opportunities to trade I would assume, unless there is a transformational event like a JV, where terms / structure dictate a large jump.

Exactly, Firefly

My average is slightly higher but not by a huge amount. Seems we hold a similar view and my expectation is the worm turns from August onwards and the. Company can organically grow for a couple of years or the JV kicks in and gloves could be off.

Firefly, should see some good value out of that trade, which is why i am struggling not to break my own investment rules.

Must admit the way I invest longer term and the way I invest has meant my average price is now low and I am actually struggling not to throw more money in at these levels as by year end I can’t see us at this SP but being restrained so far as slowest increasing holdings in some others I feel could be good for 2024, but this potentially disconnect is appealing

Well credit where credits due, they are doing exactly what they said they would do.

No more falling off chair, strap in promotional rubbish just tell us what you are doing and then do it.

Must admit i did expect June bopd figures to be a little higher, and then drop off in July as GGS was commissioned, and then some decent increases starting to be seen august but reality was the GGS introduction affected us a month earlier a small amount and then based on the RNS it looks like real improvement will raise its head in Sept/ Oct.

Keep meeting targets it builds confidence.

Another small top up for me today, nothing huge but looking to try and accumulate a few over time before it hits the radar

If anyone was short at a market cap of £10m I would be truely amazed. It went there due to BH selling which they kindly messaged on Sedar last week so basically the drop from 16/20p to 6.5p was a poor BH deal and then from 6.5p-2p very quickly was a BH dropping loads in the market. If they have stopped (the Sedar update suggests they were) then I assume back to 5-6.5p in the time it took to drop should be a minimum and if production increases / JV arrive then change estimate accordingly

Let’s not get excited it’s weeks of falling and a small rise, but has the music stopped and we are on our way back to at least the 5-6p point now the confirmation on the BH position was provided?

I am hoping for another update this week like they did on the May production as that really helps communicate the situation to shareholders.

Already did that last week at 2p.

Don’t look at the sp, look at the market cap, and now even fully diluted from BH’s it’s disconnected from reality imo. If the selling in that size qty has now stopped and more updates on GGS progress is given then could move up from here quite quick.

Finwittrader, I fully agree with you post. We have seen enough volume to have flushed these through already as this was a larger conversion than normal hence the volume needed. Anyone reacts to these BH RNA’s are reacting after the horse bolted and are basically the vehicle to transfer wealth lol