Member Info for leew

Really good day and basically my holding is now looking very rosey since the climb from the low given I significantly increased my holding well beyond my initially investments but the disconnect from market cap to potential value was too much to ignore.

Anywhere close to returning to previous sp levels based on improvement in the market cap due to fundamentals I will be a very happy investor. Looking forward to the next 3-6 months

Certainly going to be an interesting 3-6 months coming up, with production and JV progress that is for sure

Well Albertaoil, time will tell if I am right but I have done the same thing and loaded up alot at under 2p so my average is now very low and a decent spring back will do we very well and a significant rerate would be very significant for my SIPP, where as a complete failure would not be end of the world so risk reward made it worth while.

Roxi, not sure there will be any improvement in July figures as the commissioning will eat into production and also not expecting a huge jump in august as they were talking about injection pressure increases later in Q3 so really improvement will be seen in oct/nov/dec.

Although I do hope late august / sept start to set the direction of travel

Very feasible outcome Eazy,

Must admit that was my min goal, but hoping for 2.7k+ bit as they say time will tell and not long now

Yes it can be similar to a heads of terms as the letter will detail the main aspects of the agreement and I stand by my view we are now in the “legal” phase where the agreement is transferred into legal contracts. The LOI would give both parties some common understanding that it is worth the legal expense to proceed with contracts etc, although only my opinion.

Transhaven,

We are further forward on the JV based on this morning without a shadow of doubt, so to suggest otherwise is confusing at best.

An LOI can be within the terms of an NDA, but you are right the RNA message today confirms 2 parties, one of which is COPL, and the other is …… have confirmed they are at the stage where a LOI is required so that puts to bed the story on a JV does not exist.

Stas, Spot on, its a different industry but I have had a lot of experience with LOI’s, where it basically gives both parties some positive impetus to progress if there is tight timing and either/both parties want/need to commit resource or funding to ensure the end goal is still achievable. Many an MD / CEO is willing to commit to progression with a LOI in place, while a PO/Agreement is going through the sign off process.

If I had to guess I would now say we are in the 6-8 week period where the legal teams draft up the agreements for signature and hence the LOI has given both parties the impetus to progress with Legals, without fear someone changes the terms last minute. I see this as heads of terms are agreed and this LOI helps to, again, solidify the agreement, with the caveat that nothing is legally binding.

Yes most investors (if serous) will have read and understood the previous financials, which do a fantastic job of telling you what happened in the past.

Investing is about predicting the future, such as a JV impact, increasing bopd impact, potential RBL impact, whilst taking into account the historical financial aspects that carry forward. The SP is where it is as max dilution is already assumed IMO and no value is attributed to the large find so even a poor JV will add value IMO.

Luckily it’s not AIM then

Very interesting it’s, soon after the Denbury announcement.

I assume those suggesting the process was made up might want to reconsider now.

LOI signed and onto the final stages of agreement.

Llywelyn, there you go using official company information that is scrutinised and released as a RNA.

Why don’t you just say it’s going to 0.5p and full dilution happens next week :)

Like or lump the information given by COPL this year the comms have been much more professional and factually correct (no falling off chair comments) and the best bit is the operational updates have been spot on, moving in the right direction, and better still on plan, budget and expected outputs.

Recycling will be the key and there is a listed U.K. company that are going down that route and commissions a recycle plant now.

Without that type of process I fully agree with all the EV comments, and as I like an exhaust note they are not for me anyway.

StanAccy, you seem very insightful at mentioning a SP. Can I ask what Market Cap you think the company is worth and at what level the SP becomes an opportunity based on the potential market cap once financial mechanics stop.

I will put this out there and it’s only my opinion, but I think people with an average below 3p, probably within 6 months will be very happy and even those with much higher averages could do well if the right JV arrives. Again if I am wrong I am wrong but current disconnect is not something I have seen before to this level.

Well this is like a playground lol.

As the market cap reduces the disconnect gets bigger.

Basically does the market cap represent the actual company value = significantly no.

Is the failing share price down to the company going backwards on asset development or operational progress = No

Is the failing share price due to the financial mechanisms used to make the above 2 answers No = Yes.

Main question is, does real value always out in the end = Yes

Turn off, never look at the SP till Xmas and if it’s still at this level I will eat my hat. Yes I have a hat at the ready incase.

Imagine what happens if oil production increases for COPL to be profitable this year.

Chuggley, I have been since just before suspension. I always go in with a small holding in smaller market cap companies and increase over time. My last few significantly larger buys have been just below/over 2p.

I said I would take a sell at £50-100m today because there is no confirmation on any of the important topics that can drive the price rapidly up and unsurprisingly I would make some decent money at 5p.

Equally as I have said many times the disconnect in the market cap to company value, in my view, is significant and it’s all because of the BH deal. Get that out the way and the SP reacting in a normal manner and then throw in production increases, RBL and a JV and it’s guess the SP time and most guesses will be north of 5p for good reasons.

No I certainly don’t, but if offered today I would take it and do well and move on.

Do I want that NO, would anyone offer 5p, NO, would it be accepted by the share holder base, NO. Would it financially work for me personally today, yes.

Again I am not sure why the assumption is I don’t understand what I say.

Again read my actual expectation.

I am very pro COPL hence my holding is decent, and as it’s decent and brought a lot of it recently a 150% rise means I do ok, but do I want a 5p offer, NO.

Yes 100% chuggley.

£100m was my personal, I would accept this second, do well, and move on. The reality is I expect COPL to reach a market cap of between £200-400m and then start to get interest from others for the full company and then that offer is significantly about £200-400m.

The current disconnect from SP to assets is huge and on face value I am not sure I have seen such a disconnect before.

All depends on what sp the Bond holders convert at but a full conversion in and around these levels would be in or around that, why assume I am not able to convert an offer price in to a SP?