Member Info for L0ngterm

My phone has a mind of its own, I have given up even trying to correct!

I predict we wil get an update from the company on one of the following in the next few days/weekz. 😃

April 21: World Creativity and Innovation Day

April 22: International Mother Earth Day

April 23: World Book and Copyright Day

April 23: English Language Day & Spanish Language Day

April 24: International Day of Multilateralism and Diplomacy for Peace

Markets are funny, MMs drop the price to create demand, while we all know their is a buyer in the background scooping up shares.

Investors don’t buy but wait for the seller/buyer to stop, price moves and they buy higher.

Rinse and repeat

Yeah it’s the long way round, they should just get buyer they have lined up, to pay the 5-6 million for the shares so we flan get in with it. It’s not exactly subtle at the moment 😂

Mind you if enough PIs buy, it would be difficult for them to lose over the next few weeks, with the game that’s going on.

Interesting on the creep they could feasible take this to 29.9% depending on timing, before any notification.

Oddly or relevantly, they would need to buy 27.85 million shares to get to that point from the 26.x percent.

Our last issue to Longstate was 27.3 million.

The "Stealth Buyback" Math” am I correct?

how many shares can Assore buy before the ASX rules force them to notify the market again:

The Starting Point: Their last official notification was at 27.29% (with 211,800,865 shares).

The Dilution Gap: With the new total shares in issue (~801.5 million), that same pile of shares now only represents ~26.43%.

The "Free" Buying Zone: Under ASX Form 604 rules, they only have to notify when their actual ownership moves by at least 1.0% from their last notified percentage.

Since they notified at 27.29%, the "danger zones" for a new filing are 28.29% (buying) or 26.29% (selling).

The Notification Threshold: Currently at ~26.43%, they can buy all the way up to 28.29% before they are legally required to file a new notice.

How many can they buy?

To move from 26.43% to 28.29% in the current market (~801.5m total shares):

Target Shares: ~226.7 million total.

Current Holding: ~211.8 million.

Capacity to Buy: ~14.9 million shares.

Need LS out before any news landing but I doubt that will happen. Happy of someone can prove me wrong, if they have tracked what they think LS has sold.

If they do, I can’t see until after FID once they know their costs for the mine build out and what everyone else is going to pay/will fund.

Assore were at 29.45 up until March notification, and were at 29.45 at the time of the takeover talks.

They have dropped under 30 percent before, and went backup.

Either way it would be nice for the whole JV to be taken over bar the GOV. and everyone to walk away happy.

All supposition till we get updates.

GLA .

In fact come to think of it. That actually nips Assore in the bud as well.

That company did do its due diligince at the start of the year, and would explain why Assore’s 30 percent didn’t put them off.

Anyway all options open, GLA! Hopefully a very good week here.

Well you never know, our last bidder may have the JV board in a room, saying how much for it all!

We have had two governments now saying, that the company that gets the license may well not be the company that mines the license.

Actually was being over optimistic, but that may explain why Elevra and Atlantic are being quiet. 🤐

GLA.

@kaltersee sorry they? If you mean Atlantic, it can’t go into production without offtake agreements and FID.

All under NDAs as norm. If you mean update, quarterly is due soon.

Including optimisations,

At the current spot price of US$2,415/t, Atlantic Lithium’s annual steady-state profit would likely exceed US$210 million per year

Upgrading the fines through a flotation circuit is estimated to increase their total life-of-mine (LOM) revenue from approximately US$880 million to over US$1.5 billion @ the DFS rate. Circa 2.4 billion at today prices . 👀 below.

In the June 2023 Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS), the fines are treated as a "Secondary Product" sold at a low price to provide operating cost credits.

Total Tonnage (LOM): 4,733,264 tonnes

Average Selling Price: US$186 per tonne

Total Life-of-Mine (LOM) Revenue from Fines: ~US$880.4 million

With flotation circuit:

Upgraded Product Grade: >5.0% Li₂O (Spodumene Concentrate)

African Mining Market

African Mining Market

Average Selling Price (LOM): US$1,587 - $1,695 per tonne

Mass Yield Adjustment: While you produce fewer tonnes of concentrate than you had raw fines (roughly 1 tonne of concentrate for every 4–5 tonnes of fines processed), each tonne is worth ~8.5x more.

Incremental CAPEX: Only ~US$4.7 million

Then the company also needs to factor in elevra footing the 70 million and half thr remaining costs. MIF footing 6% of the build costs etc.

It’s the cash flow, IRR and capex, all these need balanced on whether the Modular units are used or not, as well as price.

In optimisation, the shallow (dog leg etc.), will also assist with balancing figures. Roughly two years of initial production sit roughly 30m down, as opposed to 100-150m In the main mine. So the whole approach will change, and IRR will get interesting here.

Then the fines come into play, when in the mine life, as when mixed it would be 2-2.4 bn at today’s prices.

So a lot to go one, keep in mind optimisation was done prior to the Li price rising, and I would assume will still be based on the circa 1500 a ton.

Further more the 30-50 percent reduction in electricity costs.

Either way the project payback, IRR should still be exceptional.

We should want spud and LI to settle, in affordable bracket.

Aim is the dumping ground for Longstate!

It’s a British thing

Well . The narrative across the board is demand outstripping supply, Lepidolite seems to have vanished from any conversation, and Chinese companies doing a 180 on the narrative, and openly saying we need more Li.

All this may well have given, any suitors or offtakers a kick and hopefully some aggressive competition is taking place secure offftake/the company.

For once the delay and all this should play to our advantage.

Jeez CATL!

‘CATL sold 630 GWh in 2025 — consuming ~450k MT LCE. That's Australia's entire lithium output. 1.5x Chile's.

Dominance at that scale creates its own vulnerability. Securing the mine isn't optional anymore.

Hence the $4.4B mining arm. But will it be enough? At that budget, expect 100–120k MT LCE capacity — just 25% of current needs.”

https://x.com/d_jimenez_sch/status/2044899028891013153?s=46&t=gJ40HEpUT4gYZeQiLJHwfw