Member Info for L0ngterm

It’s been going on for a while, if Assore dumped 27 million shares we would have tanked lower.

An institution or institutions, especially with the subtle approach have been accumulating.

The question is, is Longstate down to its last few million, who is absorbing and if Assore how long do they have before an announcent, and how much creep say 4 million shares takes them to a TR-1.

Ooh @ceejay101 I see capex and IRR being the two that change, as keeping it flat as was seems not that difficult currently.

Well you can look back or forward, the key points being royalties flex up and down. Projections now are from 1,200-3000 out till 2030. it’s the sensitivity analysis, however I am not sure we will get that level of detail your describing.

Each offtaker or buyer will also, have their own model and I dare say that depends on how vertically integrated they are.

Also depends we selling or building a mine 😆

@ceejay101 its working out what the Li price will be, as per below. Taking out modular units, below.

Metric Orig Price +10% Price

Price/t $1,587 $1,746

NPV (8%) $1.72B $2.07B

IRR (%) 114% 132%

Payback 16 Mo. 14 Mo.

C1 Cost <$370/t <$370/t

Key Points

Flotation Added: Converts 4.7Mt of low-grade fines into high-margin 5.5% concentrate.

Feldspar Revenue: Taps into a 36.8Mt resource to supply local ceramics and offset costs.

No Modular DMS: Focuses Capex on the 2.7Mtpa main plant for better scale.

Power Savings: New Bulk Customer Permit slashes electricity costs by 30-50%.

Recovery Boost: 3-stage crushing ensures max yield for both DMS and Flotation.

High Margin: Every 1% price rise adds ~$35M to the project's bottom line.

I think we keep going over the same ground here. price will sit here till news, due to longstate. Not much further to add.

Also another reason why the company needs or should be putting a figure on the value sooner maybe, rather than later.

Folks, it is also why dilution may be your friend or not. If it gets ugly. Assore would need to persuade sayona, mif, and others to swing a vote, sell to them, or offer enough PIs a figure for selling their shares to get their, the aim being to get over 50 percent control.

So a low share price and anxious PIS (if enough) could force a cheap sale.

Or in fact a counter offer that forces the other party to increase theirs, as they kinda win either way.

It can get uglier mind you.

If a deal was approved to go to the vote then it gets interesting. Assore cannot vote against the independent boards recommendation.

They can vote against using their shares, but again no guarantees. They would most likely trigger a counter offer if they want us.

@JackB14 @cyfalafwr nope

Conflict of interest, leaves directors vulnerable or worse sued, stricken off. Dereliction of duty and lack of fiduciary responsibility. Likewise in assores rejected offers, separate board set up.

Thats why they setup an Independent Board Committee (IBC),and professional advisors like Canaccord Genuity to manage the process and keep information confidential from all other shareholders, including major ones like Assore

@cyfalafwr I get that, up until I re-read Neil Herbert’s background, and compared with where we now know we are.

From purely my strategic view, Neil had.

3 x offers now for a takeover.

Ratification incoming.

Offtake progressing.

No publication under NDA of whom, and possible price

left door open for them to re-visit.

Could of sold but didn’t, so now what?

Left him with, Get leverage, address buyer risks/increase value.

So did the following.

Assore blind to offer price.

Buyer left open for return (compete with Assore)

Ratification rubber stamp. Value increase, risk reduction.

Offtake structure and discussions, insight and pressure as shows real value/options.

Public removing Cotes, re-iterates further value.

Also leverage for any offtake deals to be sweetened, and leverage for increased value for take over.

Gives him full picture, and keeps all others guessing.

@ceejay101 I feel the pain, but I see that as a negative to the individual investor as opposed to the company’s current position.

if the company have the value from the offtake agreements or a good indication, possible Assore and another interested in takeover then this gets very interesting.

As we know it is commonly stated and we have all done it, private investors sell to early, as we face the wall of pain constantly, tsunami if you have been here for a while.

Gla

Well they should be sitting at a table just now, looking at all options.

Or possible playing all offtaker options (what value we have) against any potential takeover offers to maximise share holder return.

So many permutations, however I can’t see too many negatives (that will may comeback and bite me).

Price floor set maybe bar a short drop to grab liquidity maybe. Which weirdly iffers me some confidence, as I see the rest of the market swinging wildly with all the war rhetoric over the coming weeks/months.

Well sticking with my assumption that it’s not just a straight phase 2 offtake. Otherwise a straight forward update would have been provided I guess.

GLA

@5toamillion see my last post, I mean who in hell thought a ceasefire and calm was going to come over the Middle East, and Trump would suddenly become a conservative states man in every communication/dealings?

Oh and we have a war related to oil, pushing demand higher. Li-2-2.5

Oh! Oh! And as expected, the ceasefire calm lasted about 1hour, and the noise has begun again.

Oh! Oh! Oh!! Even if we have a set cease fire, trump will more than likely, threaten to blow everything up every other day, then in between shout Victory everything is calm. Then call on everyone in the west to invade, and off we go.

Well let’s deal with facts:

We 100% know that we are in offtake discussions.

Company said update shortly.

Floor set at 14.6 roughly from the raise

Longstate have 27 million shares and 80 days equates to about 650,000 a day. Without crashing the share completely, circa 8 million sold.

Company needs to get the share price up and average above here May,jun, July.

Investors warrants at end/start of May with additional funding set at 21.90.

Quarterly update due end of month.

3 x offers to take company over.

Li demand rising, deficit going forward general consensus from all angles.

Li price floating between 2-5k

@JackB14 yeah totally frustrating, but so close. The silence to me is key, any bad news could have been delivered last Thursday and just of been lost in the war, and absorbed over the long weekend.

If it was a straight offtake deal at phase 2, we would have heard something buy now.

So that leaves us with either offtakers are being competitive and aggressive, or we have another approach for a takeover.

Thrashing out that is probable more complex if it’s a takeover, as the takeover company will be looking at Ghanaian government, MIF etc. and want more clarity on taxation, the mechanics of it all, and Assore.

I don’t see this going to 50 or above, currently if it’s just Assore unless offtake agreed & FiD

The permutations, between OEMs and cotes etc, takeovers, offtake in general make all of this very interesting with the silence.

@jackb14 until then Longstate need to execute circa 650,000 shares a day over the 80 days, ball park they have sold about 8 million so far. So kinda puts a bottom in here, till we get news.

I would prefer they got through more prior to news, but it can’t be that far off

We know NDAS are in place with the take off.

They have one hard rock mine, it would logically make sense if your in the business to have at least 2, especially if one is at a lower cost to produce, at a low cost capex and you can build it with cash, debt or offtake. Unlike the other extension that needs government funding and is a year out from any funding decision.

Kinda dumb to ignore great project metrics, and your partners are being offered to get taken over all the time.