The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Good afternoon Southmead, just waking getting going in this part of the world. Could you please list what specifically you found reassuring from the video released yesterday. Perhaps I missed something, or watched the wrong one even. Thanks in advance. I did list a few of the things I found extremely worrying in my posts yesterday, but perhaps I clicked on the wrong link.
It’s simple, market sentiment has an enormous impact on sp and ultimately whether a company can raise capital, pay bills, get deals done and survive. They’re all connected.
Sentiment is dependent upon confidence in management. Put really simply, do they do what they say they’ll do? Is there consistency? Can you trust what they say and tell you, because if not, then there’s nothing at all other than someone telling you a story with no basis at all.
The fact is there’s been such a massive, blatant and repeated history of utter bs from GL and GD, inconsistent messages and timelines over short periods of time, that the only sane conclusion is they simply lie. They’re unable to tell the truth. There’s no way for example things have suddenly got so much worse since 21 September, but they clearly have. You have to conclude you just can’t trust a word they say. Ever extending timelines will lead to this company failing, of that I’m sure. The project might get concluded, but not by Sound and not to benefit its shareholders, that’s for sure.
Longer timelines = more dilution = much lower share price (it’s a viscous cycle now as sp / mcap is so low now, any raise via equity dilution as it would mean vast watering down of existing SHs)
The content of the presentation published last night combined with the underhand chicken shot way they did it (not facing up to its investors) is the last straw I feel. There’s only so many times people are willing to be mugged off, as it’s deeply personal I’d think.
GL = JP. They’re no different. Unable to be consistent, tell the truth, give investors any confidence at all. It’s always tomorrow, next month or next year. The FID has been talked about for 4-5yrs now, and yet again massive delays admitted last night with no certainty.
It’s not all bad news. GL and co will continue to get paid for the moment, they’ll continue to not invest a penny nor have any real skin in the game here, huge red flags for any investor.
Share holder value and company are not the same thing. It’s clear to me GL has prioritised all other internal and external stakeholders over equity SHs here. No wonder the CB is selling, they’ve realised it too.
My expectation is GL to resign in the next 4 months, and Sou to cease trading on grounds of insolvency. There’s no money in 2.5 months by their own admission and a market that’s clearly unwilling to be continually mugged off again and again by this lot. Sorry to say it but Sou is finished.
unbelievably chicken **** of them not to front up to investors. no ability to challenge, or question or query wtf is going on or upcoming fund raise. this is a huge hammer blow. by their own admission there is no money beyond december 2023, so massive dilution coming and no phase 1 revenues until over 12 months
Just comparing the new delayed timelines and cash flows with the current assumptions in the sp angel model, for both phase 1 and 2. They’ll need to completely rework with a huge impact on sp, from that but also necessary mid term funding / dilution…..this is what so many have been saying, and it’s come to pass…..
Is it reasonable to put gross not net revenues (to Sound) on a Sou presentation? Typical AIM bs, $120m revenues on slides, when we all know it’s much smaller due to Sou having farmed out 65% of the licence now….what a bunch of second hand car salesmen. Only ktf would fall for this carp surely????
Slipped deadlines all over the place. I can’t believe how they’ve done this away from shareholders. Just dropped a bomb on the existing SHs. There’s so much dilution coming due to these delays, 0.4p by Christmas is my prediction.
Listen, there’s a number of posters to whom this will be of zero surprise, but they’re not even building the lng tank until q1 2024 now, another slipped deadline. My estimate of first revenues phase 1 until 2025 is looking sound (pardon the pun). But surely a few must be increasingly miffed with the constant bs from this lot?
It could not be clearer, anyone hoping for any material news anytime soon is a lunatic. All the red flags on the last call have just been laid bare. No debt financing not until 2024, then 24 months to revenues. So no revenue until 2027 earliest. I’m wondering how many of us will still be alive and kicking in 2027, I’m not getting any younger……
And there’s more…..like I stated, the engineering and costing of the pipeline and associated capital projects isn’t even in play??!! How fking slow are these lot? Are they only able to run one thing at a time? They knew that would be necessary, but it sounds like they’ve not even started it. My view, costs are 100% than 2018 original estimates, and increase completely missing from the sp angel valuation, like I’ve said. It’s all proving to be as I stated. To call this company a basket case as an investment proposition is a cutting insult to a basket.
And there’s more. GL is nothing but a blagger and a bullshotter. Less than a month ago he stated loan and calval news in q3, so before end Sep23. There’s also two critical funding deadlines missed. Now he’s saying ‘quite a lot of outstanding CPs’ (ktf, contact me directly if you need me to explain what they are), and no FID until 2024 now!!! All you have to do is look at past quarterly presentations to gain an understanding about the bs from this management team. Leading investors over a dilution and funding cliff edge as every quarter delay is further massive dilution, particularly at 14-15m mcap!!! This share is even worse than I expected. See if sp angel bother to reissue their targets with this latest very disappointing news. What a tool GL is. Like I said they’re all the same, GL=JP.
oh dear, sou does what sou does…… more bs slippy deadlines. now first gas phase 1 is not even 1h 24 it’s now 2024……they’re so full of ****. that’s another 6 months or £6m funding dilution, i make that 40% off the share price. tomorrow.
There goes some more CB related selling, a huge 10m sale.
back in 2016/17 there was a poster who was derided and put down by keyboard warriers just like the usual on this bb. they pointed out ahead of any other person on this bb from memory that the valuation flaw in JP's £1/tcf model was wrong. despite it being clear as day for anyone with the nouse to work out, what was shocking is the confirmation bias on this bb from lazy posters just assuming it was rubbish, until it became clear as day they were right. that is when the sp started it's precipitous tanking that has led to 0.8p today. my point is, the likes of ktf and co. are ten a penny, lazy illinformed and inexperienced punters, luring others over th edge. don't take my word for it, just look at the sp and look at their posts.
anyway, i said there would be more CB selling, and a chunky 10m sale fits the bill to me. doesn't bode well. all the while, GL is holed up whilst Rome burns. Figures.
Haha, they're not mutually exclusive ktf. he's chucked you a couple of bones to ease his conscience, that's all. enough to be able to claim he warned you, but you don't hear do you, hence you've been bullish from 50p down to 0.78p. enough said. just to be care GL is all about his package, then the company (which any moron (cough, cough ktf) should be able to realise is not the same as SH interests, especially on AIM when it's all about capital raises one way or another). You just need to sell enough gullible investors the dream and get them to wear years of dilution (warrants, equity dilution, CBs, asset dilution) and before they know it they actually 'own' very little at all. that is where you're heading ktf. any investor that can spin a 100% rise in sp from here to 1.5p as success is a lunatic. just look at the 5yr sp chart, it's a bloodbath and so much dilution baked in any talk of 3-4p is utter fantastical.
Whatever Sundance.
I’ve just reviewed the last video from GL published on 21 September. I’m more convinced than ever the next major RNS will be incredibly disappointing for existing SHs. Think on that. He did all he could to warn investors. It’s how he said certain things, and what he did not say. Snorkel time, investors are getting even more underwater (not that you say it matters so much…..). I would place more value on an amateur valuation that sp angel one, a paid for broker which admits huge holes in their calcs. You’ve been warned by them!
"Forgot to say, have a lovely day kylie, do TRY to be more positive about something."
What does that even mean in the context of a financial bulletin board forum ktf? You mean "ignore reality, smoke some dope and hope to god i've not got this investment terribly wrong for the last 6 years"?
Fortunately, I'm not in that position, so I can be more objective on this, but I can see why you'd want to ignore the unfolding reality here.
There is no sense in this company being £15m mcap, it's basically bankrupt by my calcs, with these assets soon to be handed back over to ONHYM. This dog traded a new all-time low yesterday, and it's hardly surprising. For me it's a textbook example of an AIM O&G zombie company, continually going cap in hand to the market for funds, diluting existing SH (most of whom can't fathom, calculate or comprehend what's being done to them, and GL is certainly grateful for that!), and a cast iron ability to miss every single deadline trailed out there, even two most recent critical funding deadlines. Delays are never positive news from my experience. Management will be getting squeezd and screwed as time goes on and more and more given away. When I say management, what that really equates to is exiting SHs, not management. They conitinue to feed at the trough, gorging on inexplicably high packages that bare zero resemblence to any delivery or SH value creation.
I said a while back that the sp would hit 0.5p, but now I honestly think it will go a lot lower. Has anyone asked what security the Moroccans have should SOU be unable to meet the tax repayments? There's so many breadcrumbs that suggest to me primarily UK PIs are being used as cannon fodder to get this Moroccan domestic project moving, with zero chance of any of that benefit likely to flow back to existing SHs. The likes of ktf have throw 3500 posts at this company, all bullish, and all wrong. It's hard to be objective when you've so publically stated your position and shown to be wrong time after time. But the reality is the company is now nearing in on 1 month late for the dead-stop date on the bank funding and much longer on the CalVal exclusivity deadline. Either they were so xxxx originally at working with their domestic partners to understand the likely deadlines (which in itself is an inexusable failure on their behalf), or this a very bad sign as to what's (not) going on in the background in terms of any progress here.
100% certain all this bs from the company about 1H24 Phase 1 revenues is utter carp (ktf seems to think that means 1 Jan 2024!!??, oh how naive), this won't produce any Phase 1 revenue until mid-2025 now in my view, over 20 months ahead at best. By which time at this cash burn there will have be a need for a further £12m+ fund raises, watering this sp down to below 0.4p in my view. This company is a massive sell, almost as much as the management here, who revert to the same old AIM tricks (as employed by JP) of being happy to email out when things aren't so bad, but have a zero comms approach when they know the news is very very bad. When this sp does blow up the likes of ktf will for sure have zero humility, they'll fade into the background and investors here will realise all these bulled up bs posters here were merely part of a faceless shorting crew, luring in poorly researched AIM punters. Just look at a sp chart and think about it. All time lows today, join the do
Christ, some people shouldn’t post. You think taking free shares and options isn’t impacting shareholders? It’s just dilution, all the same. These payments should be sp performance based, if they were neither of them
Would have a share unless and until they actually deliver SH value, which they seem unable to do or just not up for
0.77p bid, a new all time low.
Honest question, has anyone got anything back from the company regarding the two funding deadlines being missed? I haven’t despite three attempts. I even checked my spelling and grammar before sending. Seems they’re realising the worst to me.
CB seller back this morning