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Malcy is a rare breed, a three trick pony. Firstly that boy can eat, he can eat well off a buffet paid for by investor money. Secondly, he can sweat with the best of them, just by sitting still. Thirdly he only recommends o&g companies which structurally has been a disaster for years. When that boy meets his maker, he’ll be hard pushed to provide any examples of him adding value to this world. Could be a few uncomfortable moments before he’s shown the elevator to the lower floor.
Logically nothing here with SOU feels right to me. The scale of ambition, lending, spend, debt, nothing feels like it fits a company with a mcap of £14m and a narrow equity base and amateur management. There’s a bigger play here and existing SH will get wiped out.
Based on where the bid/offer actually was if you tried to trade at that time, these were sells not buys. It’s a little academic anyway, these are CB related sales I feel. Bigger picture is another 2 months have gone by and the team have nothing concrete to show for it and the walls are rapidly closing in.
Greendragon, you don't get it. If someone gives you 10m shares, you don't REALLY have skin in the game, what you have is a free hand, a punt. And that is what they had. If they'd have investeted their own hard earned money in buying those 10m shares at market prices, then that's skin the game. Anyone knows that.....
Sound,
I'd certainly hold my hands up and give the company some credit, but I feel this is extremely unlikely. As I have said many a time, there's a yawning chasm of difference between 'the company' and 'exisiting SH'. The company could possibly get all the below you mention done, but in the process completely wipe out existing SHs in the process. Under that scenario, I would be proven to have been right. It's not a case of cheering up - I'm simply being realistic, and the reality itsself is what is extremely negative here. I'm merely a mirror projecting back GL's mess / lies etc. Anyway, 6 days to go. I think it's pretty certain no news before the 20th as that will be another formal/informal CP for the financing discussions - push the bondholder commitments out further or get them covered by getting the existing SHs wiped out. Remember, none of these key stakeholders gives a monkey's nuts about existing SHs, particularly GL as he's made clear.
You're too kind Table, thanks. I don't feel like a trier most days, I have to take my hat off to all the triers on this bb, the investors and posters like KTF and Co (where is he nowadays, I did suggest he was just here to lure un-researched money into this black hole, could I have been right....?). They tried very hard over the years to talk this dead duck up, but ultimately it's been show to be just that, a dead duck, head under water, feet in the air. I mean what kind of CEO makes a statement in mid September about 'big news this quarter' when he actually meant 'big news next quarter or more likely the quarter after that (and when I say big news, it's not good big news......)? You gotta try really hard to lap that garbage up month after month, despite all logic and facts pointing differently, and still remain blindly unjustifiably bullish on this zombie co.
So no, hats off to you, you're the trier Table.
Bond holder meeting/vote on 20th Nov will be yet another GL car crash. He's got you all locked up in the boot of the car, he's got his headphones on and he's about to drive you and him in the end off a cliff in my view. Any company with a positive story does not shut down all comms with it's owners / SHs. It takes a pretty high level of contempt, particularly given what you lot have gone through and the statements and BS fed to you by GL to approach the situation in this way, but there you go.
All the flashy (zero value or less) CAD videos of LNG plants etc only goes to further convince myself I am right here. What kind of a company wastes SH money on such marketing guff when the SP is 60% lower vs a few months ago and at all time lows with a mcap on £15m? It's the kind of thing BP or Shell might do, not a two bob joke of a company like SOU. There's no way this ends well, it all feels very very wrong now. Assets handed over one way or another to another operator that has the pockets and capacity and experience and ability to carry this out
100% Crudehope, my seplling and grammer is often well off, I wasn’t claiming otherwise. As for my understanding of SOU, investing and AIM specifically I am too modest to say either way, I’ll let others decide. I certainly don’t have a track record of posting 3500 times on a single company and getting them all wrong, nor do I need insider info in order to make money either, just syaing.
On another very related point. Hopefully all investors understand the nature of the relationship between SOU (GL/etc) and SP Angel the corporate broker? As very clearly stated at the top of all their SOU reseach notes it states 'non-independent research'. That is critical. The timing and spin on this research is very much not independent. Yes it is true for example that without knowing if the CalVal or alternative equity funding solution is sucessful, and if so the terms, and without knowing any terms from the Phase 2 bank lending negotiations (such as Interest Rates!!), SP Angel can't fully update their sp target from the existing 4.6p. However, what is entirely disingenous and increasingly typcial of this mgt team is SP Angel could have updated it to take into account a couple of the recent RNSs. For exampe, the material splippage in timelines (for the 10th???? time) has a material impact on the numbers in their table, fund raising requirements and equity holder dilution and a massive impact on that 4.6p, even before the negative impact coming from the two funding negotations. It's clear to me at least the SOU have 'discouraged' SP Angel from the downwards revision in sp target that any independent broker / resarch analyst in a normal non-corrupt market would have made, in order to not completely destroy too early existing sp sentiment. The next few weeks is going to be interesting, but my interpretation of 'interesting' is very different from the majority on here. GL's contempt for existing SHs might become obvious to everyone by Christmas. Not the Xmas present one might hope for but it's coming anyway.
Crudehope, a couple of things.
1. Try and be a little more careful with your spelling. There are quite a few spelling and grammar police on this board and I noticed you mispelt 'innovative' by missing off an 'n'. Poor spelling/grammar seem to draw far worse responses here than the utter shambles GL is presiding over.
2. Once a CEO/CFO has been shown to have lied or been so utterly incompetent with their statements or timelines, it's the beginning or middle of the end anyway. You can't come back from that. As an equity investor, and despite the continued confusion on this board by quite a few, you are interested ultimately in the sp, and that is not necessarily at all correlated to the performance of the company. SHs have 'given away' more than 50% of the company equity in the last few years, with now more than 2bn shares either in issue or could be soon basis warrants and other as yet outstanding dilutive events mentioned in prior RNSs. But that only tells the story of the number of shares in issues. GL and the CEO have been using the not so innovative technique of massive asset level dilution in an attempt to seemingly (it's working...) confuse or hide from investors further dilution. The sp is now beyond saving in my view. The money runs out in 7 weeks time, they need to raise and the sp / mcap is such you're looking at 40% plus more dilution just to keep the lights on until Apri 2024, and that's assuming the bond holders don't revolt. On that point, and just another thought here, without getting too conspiratoral, it would have of course suited the bond holders (whom have GL's balls in a vice) for the sp to be so low, they can wipe out equity holders, take majority ownership of SOU in return for a bond/equity swtich. Just a thought, but anyone who trusts GL should not be allowed to invest in my opinion, there's nothing that suugests he's competent or trustworthy, and the complete silence by the company and months long refusal to answer emails says it all.
On the upside, they are able to fly a drone in the sky and create a pretty schematic of an LNG plant, so perhaps this could be where SOU goes next when this all goes pop? Rinse & Repeat......
I think frustration might be a term used to keep an investor positive about this company and mgt team from a SH value perspective. I suspect a 'head doctor' might call it a dawning reality about the state of this company and that yes, lightening can strike twice and people have been sold down the river again by just another AIM chancer of a CEO who risked nothing personally in the twilight years of his career for a fractionally small chance at walking away with a very comfortable retirement. He's recently been shown to be a BSer, nothing more or less. Still taking an enormous salary and no doubt hitting all his KPIs for a bucket load of free shares this year though. Deep down, he's the winner here, LT SHs the losers (indeed, any SH really). Refinancing will ruin the business from a SH perspective.
Brutal Crude given all you’ve made from SOU ( and the way you made it…) to post that attack on GL. It’s like a house guest that’s been sponging off you for weeks and they leave a floater in toilet as the leave without a goodbye. GL has delivered nothing but a critical massacring of the sp as his actions have done nothing but dilute and spend SH value, that’s undeniable. He’s bs’d the market as I’ve been consistent saying. The RNSs to come around the 20th Nov and later this year or next Q with further costs, delays, bs and dilution will finish this company off. He tried to ‘do a JP’ as nd did it badly, as at least JP lied and got the sp up. This guy just gives the bs and everyone can see and smell it a million miles off.
The 45 day exclusivity period for th CalVal funding ended on 28th July 2023. That's nearly 3 months ago. So a process that the company said/thought would take 45 days has now taken nearly 200% more time that expected. There are clearly some major issues in relation to the CalVal deal. The working by the FD in the recent presentation clearly alluded to that fact too. Getting this in place will be a CP for the bank funding. It's pretty clear to me that the CalVal equity element of the Phase 2 (and to be honest, now Phase 1 as back payments were to be used by the company just to keep the lights on) is beyond critical now and could threaten the entire company.
What are people's views as to the amount and timing of the next fund raise / dilution? The company themselves have stated twice that they're funded to end-2023, so it will need to be in the next 6 weeks I feel. For me it needs to be $4-5m, which will likely lead to 50% sp fall given the current market cap. Any other option is merely a left-hand / right-hand trick as any lender will murder the sp / existing SHs in a similar fashion.
For me this comes down to a complete void of trust in current management. They have no been straight or honest about anything, and once the market sees that, it's near impossible to recover from in my experience in these markets.
The RNS today was of zero surprise to me, as those regular readers of my prose will be more than aware. I noted GL did not even sign off the funding would be in place by end-Dec23, it's only his hope that the GSA will be amended to cover off that CP. It's a classic case of reading what is not said as much as what is and how.
I'm pretty convinced SOU has very little time left on the ICU and someone's about to turn off the switch and save a couple of quid for use on a more deserving patient.
Sunny, there are a number of things in your message that are way off the mark. It's not my job to do your homework for you. You can test out my point yourself, just think of 2-3 stretching / probing questions for them (God, there's SO MANY to chose from) and email them, you won't get a response. The sp is down another 9% today, trading a new all-time low. You can go and tick up some bs from the usual happy clappy crew or wake up and realise what's going on with this sp and company. It makes zero difference to me. This is just an investment forum where views are supposed to be exchanged (i'm not after airtime at all, just shouting into an empty well hoping to get anything valuable back from you and others), problem being there's very little I'm getting back other than carp from the likes of yourself. Just reinforces my view re SHs generally here. I'm not sure as a CEO you're supposed to ake favourites, but certainly if I'm part of the akward squad then that's fine by me, but from experience there's normally a very good reason they go into 'bunker mode' - ask JP, exactly what they did near the end too. Same this time. Believe me, don't believe me, it's zero skin off my nose. Deep down, you know what I'm saying is right and I've hinted at about 10 major red flags here in my recent posts, so ask them yourself. You won't get a response, I'm certain.
Table, everyone knows you’re just a naive company loving sound piece. Look where the sp is, record all time lows. All those views you’ve expressed over all those years are undeniably, objectively and completely wrong.
To be honest, I don’t believe you. If you ask them simple easy questions, pointless and non-searching questions.
Any investor that doesn’t DYOR is destined to lose money. All I’d suggest anyone and all to do, is simply send the company an email with 4-5 very obvious searching questions. You’ll see, they will not respond. Then you’ll see who to believe on here.
Come on, the posting by some and lack of posting by most says it all. That video was a PR bloodbath. They couldn’t have looked more uncomfortable. They know the past is repeating, the tide is about to go out and they’re about to get found out. They’re no different from 99% of AIM ceos and cfos. They chose their words carefully to trick the majority, but if you really look at what they say it’s incredibly disturbing. The Calval timeline has no way slipped nearly a month just due to some unseen roadblocks in terms of getting CPs cleared. I’m utterly shocked that they can sit on this terrible news as I see it as critical and requiring an RNS.
The most telling sign this company is properly fooked? Weeks ago I gave up trying to get them to answer valid questions via email. They wouldn’t even acknowledge receipt of the emails. They’re avoiding any correspondence with existing SHs as they can’t say anything that isn’t awful. I know they’re still not responding to SH emails from a contact.
There are so many small time dodgy little funding groups out there that band together to raise £1-5m for placements and finance for these companies. I’m 100% sure Sou is approaching a few now to fill the very shirt term liquidity cliff face in 9 weeks time. There’s no good news coming, Gary is desperately trying to suggest he has a wealth of options, something that seems utterly implausible to any sane person as they themselves have just pushed back any Phase 1 revenue to 2025 earliest. They have no money, the have no options and as I’ve said, that puts them in a terrible position to negotiate. That is on them. You lie to and bs the market, all investor sentiment is gone forever.
SP will be sub 0.5p (likely sub-0.4p) by Christmas and company insolvent and licences handed back over to ONYHM by June24.
Sorry to say it, but you all know it too, you just won’t or can’t admit it to yourselves. Mcap if £15m!!!! Oh my….just do the maths on dilution coming!!
dudeathlon, have you lost your tongue? all mouth and no trousers chap, like quite a few others on this site. happy to ***** and moan about what some post on here but you’re just another empty vessel when it comes to the detail here. it’s a fact closely aligned with the all to obvious lack of any meaningful bullish buy side flow in the shares for many months now. not only is the an over head seller, and the cb seller, but also no strong high volume buying lifting offers at all. speaks to the true investor sentiment here, it’s rock bottom and ultimately what will kill off this company finally over the coming months. and that falls entirely at gl’s door, they’ve destroyed any confidence or trust by their lies and bs. have a nice weekend.
I posted that in the true spirit of Sou, in other words I’m off on my timeline. It will happen.
Answer me this. Where is the money coming from for the fundraise needed by 70 days time? (Just in case you’re as ill informed as some others on here, the company themselves stated they’re funded only to end 2023). Simple question. How much they gonna raise and how? You’ll see what I’m talking about.
Good afternoon Southmead, just waking getting going in this part of the world. Could you please list what specifically you found reassuring from the video released yesterday. Perhaps I missed something, or watched the wrong one even. Thanks in advance. I did list a few of the things I found extremely worrying in my posts yesterday, but perhaps I clicked on the wrong link.
It’s simple, market sentiment has an enormous impact on sp and ultimately whether a company can raise capital, pay bills, get deals done and survive. They’re all connected.
Sentiment is dependent upon confidence in management. Put really simply, do they do what they say they’ll do? Is there consistency? Can you trust what they say and tell you, because if not, then there’s nothing at all other than someone telling you a story with no basis at all.
The fact is there’s been such a massive, blatant and repeated history of utter bs from GL and GD, inconsistent messages and timelines over short periods of time, that the only sane conclusion is they simply lie. They’re unable to tell the truth. There’s no way for example things have suddenly got so much worse since 21 September, but they clearly have. You have to conclude you just can’t trust a word they say. Ever extending timelines will lead to this company failing, of that I’m sure. The project might get concluded, but not by Sound and not to benefit its shareholders, that’s for sure.
Longer timelines = more dilution = much lower share price (it’s a viscous cycle now as sp / mcap is so low now, any raise via equity dilution as it would mean vast watering down of existing SHs)
The content of the presentation published last night combined with the underhand chicken shot way they did it (not facing up to its investors) is the last straw I feel. There’s only so many times people are willing to be mugged off, as it’s deeply personal I’d think.
GL = JP. They’re no different. Unable to be consistent, tell the truth, give investors any confidence at all. It’s always tomorrow, next month or next year. The FID has been talked about for 4-5yrs now, and yet again massive delays admitted last night with no certainty.
It’s not all bad news. GL and co will continue to get paid for the moment, they’ll continue to not invest a penny nor have any real skin in the game here, huge red flags for any investor.
Share holder value and company are not the same thing. It’s clear to me GL has prioritised all other internal and external stakeholders over equity SHs here. No wonder the CB is selling, they’ve realised it too.
My expectation is GL to resign in the next 4 months, and Sou to cease trading on grounds of insolvency. There’s no money in 2.5 months by their own admission and a market that’s clearly unwilling to be continually mugged off again and again by this lot. Sorry to say it but Sou is finished.