Member Info for KNIGELK

...seems like the website has been down for over a hour.. as for posts removed - I do occasionally report posts but will say so - apparently it takes just five posters to report any post for it to be automatically removed - whether that's good or bad is up to debate but at least vile comments are removed which isn't the case on another BB website I use..

Actually .. the landlords will not just be worried about Debenhams paying their quarterly rent .. we have record employment.. rising wages.. low inflation.. were did it all go wrong re the high street? (and so quickly)

Jezz... perhaps you trolling non holders/shorters here should actually re-read my post (which had 8 tick ups when I last look - thank you guys)... it was the TONE of LSE comments that I had issue with - finding it almost funny that the share price is dropping - that the company could go bust - WANTING to profit from its possible administration. I know people who work at Debenhams so perhaps I shouldn't,,, but I DO.. .take it personally - especially when new comers appear from nowhere - like vultures hovering over the remains... so it's not about taking the moral high ground - if you rather bet on a share price falling and a company failure - than "bet" on a share price rising and a company recovering - that's up to you - says more about the individuals and their outlook on life imho. I rather try to be positive than negative - try to look at the bull case than the bear case - granted Debenhams got itself into this mess and the bear case is valid here.
Sains - were have you been?

Not all the posters posting are holders. As for time here, been holding on and off for 5 years but it's not a competition on LTH status - we all want action/changes here.

Don't know Smartie2 - it's your posts that contain guesswork. How many posts have you asking others to answer you on the chances of administration/CVA etc? Twenty? So you can start by posting less and perhaps then I will post less too as I will not need to reply to your posts.. you don't hold so you don't ne d to worry .. as for SPD if they keep increasing their debt and buying companies that need a lot of turnaround work, then they will eventually end up like Debenhams

I really don't think we can be 100% sure that if we have had different directors/CEO over the last 1-2 years things would have been much different. The leases date back years. Sales would have declined - perhaps a little less. The bonds would have been an issue re repayment. Debt would have been high. Stores would have needed to be closed. MA still would have held 29.9%. He is not the answer - is HoF performing well at the moment?
I am not saying the situation could not have been a little better ie. In hindsight a rights issue a year ago at 30p would have helped but it's the retail sector overall that's the problem not a particular brand..

The bigger question really is why the final results state that the company is a going concern for the next twelve months and now we are arguing whether the company can pay its quarterly rent or not! So what has actually happen? 1) trading is worse than expected 2) the lending term ratios have been broken - the company needed to make roughly £20 million p.a. profit to maintain its convanents 3) the banks (maybe with pressure from MA) started to be concern about the company repaying its bonds - in TWO years time 4) the company proposed a CVA and the banks probably wanted debt down as well 5) talks started - ahead of time - due to profits falling - about new finance terms and possible D4E.
You have a strong point that the rental payments due next week are a key point but I am not sure the banks will want to pull the plug and risk losing £300 million in a fire sale. Do you not agree they are more likely than not to attempt refinancing as long as the company can present a decent turnaround plan? Close stores - cut cuts/rents - dispose of assets (Denmark).. indeed the retail sector usually runs in cycles - and eventually it will bottom out!
This doesn't mean admin cannot happen - I just personally think the June rental payments would be the trigger event if it happens - not now imho.
Re the bear case - lets just say that the share price has been stuck in the 3-4p range for two months now - neither side can totally win their argument and one side can claim the high ground based on the latest news but 3p (!!) is already literally discounting everything but admin.. its either recovery or bust now (or dilution)

Smartie2 - just seen your reply. Two points 1) actually re-read your post(s) and tell me what I got wrong - I NEVER try to twist a posters comment - I am not clever enough! 2) I invested £500 here ok? Not a fortune ok? So I am definitely not running scared ffs - indeed if I lose it - it's not the end of the world - never invest what you cannot afford to lose in any investment be it BT or Debenhams. Only once did I put EVERYTHING into one share - Helphire - god it paid dividends but every though I made a fortune - it was SO stressful I said "never again". Now I usually have 5-15 investments on the go - I post on some - not others ie. MOS is in a dire state but until there's news I probably only post there 1-2 a month. As for that BUG ID poster - he is stalking me - so take with views with a very large pinch of salt - I hope you never have the pleasure of a poster following you around the threads.....

Non holders getting upset by lack of news on their non investment - you couldn't make it up

Meta - yet you are rejecting any of the bull cases - pot, kettle, black.... this is a discussion thread - shareholders usually tend to stress the bull case - shorters/non holders or those with agendas might decide to stress the bear case. I accept some of the bear arguments put here - I repeat as you are a new comer here (for whatever reason).. shareholders here know the risks!!!! We get it!!! ..and it's up to us if we wish to stay invested - I am not really sure why the concern....

Smartie2 - your last comment is very close to libellous - just because one party is questioning the contents of SOME of the recent RNSs - doesn't mean their claims are true - nor should you repeat their claims. If shareholders (that includes SPD) cannot believe the facts stated in a RNS - then what's the point of investing? Now if any info can be proved to be false - then those involved must be held to account. As far as I am aware - the statements have been legit except that perhaps the company did not factor in the decline in trading .. which (be honest) has fallen off a cliff for MOST high street retailers this quarter.

More to the point - why is the shorting position still 10? Are they that desperate to squeeze out a little more profit when most of them have probably made an unrealised killing already? Greed is a bad emotion and shorters have it in spades.. (here at least)... the LTHs here and those interested in the company now the score - when a share price falls from 58p to 3p just over a year - and the warning signs were initially not clear - shorting had an impact - we can debate how much of an impact - but when a party acquires 29.9% of the share issue - and apparently maintains this holding - it will take a heck of a lot of selling from other shareholders to push a share price down 95%. Results were £33 million underlying profits - current trading suggests a small loss this year - the company has a cost cutting plan - wants to close 50 stores and refinance - so the only real reason we are at 3p is the risk of admin (now who wants that to happen?) and a massive D4E. Fine... but... 3p!!!!

Smartie - I am not questioning your ability to trade elsewhere and make decent profits (most of us do - I guess you don't work - or use the smart phone like me0.. I just questioned your comment early today that somewhere you made back precisely £22k yesterday to cancel out the £22k loss you realised here - if you had said you made £30k or £10k I would believe you - but the exact amount!?
Shorting - the issue here is that some believe the 29.9% shareholder lent out their shares to hedge funds to push the share price down to force the issues the company have sooner rather than later - maybe to make a cheap takeover offer etc. This is just market gossip and may be wrong but would make sense... so personally I would have a max limit on what any individual hedge fund could short in any one company otherwise the share price movements can be massive - even those who support shorting must concede the rules could be "updated"??

This isn't Interserve - and I am not an expert on that company but the vote last week was lost 44/56% (from memory) and it was blamed on some large hedge funds - happy to be corrected. With Debenhams it's more clear-cut. If SPD vote for a resolution it probably will pass and if they vote against it then it probably will fail. That's the problem with a 29.9% shareholder. As for share price - no news equals lack of interest equals more sellers than buyers - simples. Not sure why non holders keep monitoring it 24/7 ....

Smartie2 - I am fed up of saying this BUT you were bullish and only seeing the bull points until you sold out - you don't have a leg to stand on. If I sell out - not only will I say so (like you did) but it wouldn't automatically mean I will change my opinion - I might sell to invest elsewhere or - like you - at some point I might concede the risks are too high. When have I ramped this? I have rarely given a share price target - told others to buy - or not accepted the risks are there. Indeed you have to be a very high risk individual to invest here at this stage - or mug as others call it - I either will make a decent profit or lose the lot. I KNOW. I accept the negatives. Do you accept the positives that the company might actually pull this off?

Interserve - fair enough - if was the share you were posting on so you will know. Not surprised - remember Interserve was quite a large cap company until a few months ago - probably part of index tracking funds too. So obviously some investment managers would have had a holding. Different sector - similar funding issues - so not necessarily the same outcome but I totally agree more funding is needed here and shareholders will get diluted.

Pearls - the trouble with that logic is that it didn't help out BHS (a similar size chain) or Woolworths (smaller but more stores) in the past. Of course Debenhams have some large stores - six floors here in Bristol - and closures will leave a massive gap in our shopping centre - but I doubt the banks are being sentimental. These discussions are simply taking a long time - and MA offering an alternative - only a week ago - has probably delayed matters. With the rents due to be paid next week (whether funds are already available or not) I would expect a RNS on what option(s) Debenhams will take by Friday imho - good or bad

What other terrible investment decisions have Standard Life made? I know for a fact that (eg) both BlackRock, Schroders and UBS have invested in larger cap companies that eventually went bust over the years (as our investment managers on and off since the 1990s)... I don't call these investment companies "mug punters" for making the rare bad investment decision - no one/company is perfect are they? Remember the banks? Who bailed them out? The mug government helping out the mug investors pmsl. BTW the holding reduction was very small going under the 5% limit!!

Last point. Another difference is that shorters can post here and might effect sentiment and some may sell on their comments. Indeed some may buy on ramping comments (although no one would trade on BB comment).
On a suspended share any comment cannot make a blind bit of difference. Perhaps if this poster had the guts to explain his history on LSE and any former ID I might give him the time of day

Btw I guess he is talking about my ex investment WRN. Remember it's suspended since October 2014. So non holders since this date have been unable to invest even if they wanted to. I had no choice but to wait but the longer the suspension went on the less positive of reinvesting - if deals happen - i became. Indeed if Debenhams gets suspended non holders will still be able to post and none of us will be able to add-buy-or sell. ATM this share is listed. BIG difference