Member Info for kign

congrats Bachusll,

609p next week :)

From Bloomberg: Listening to European Electricity Traders Is Very, Very Scary

But having listened in on multiple occasions over the last few months, I have three takeaways. First, the looming power emergency is worse than many industry executives publicly acknowledge, and a lot more dangerous than the government admits. Second, high prices are a big problem, but security of supply is at risk, too. Third, time is running out to prepare before temperatures start to drop.

https://archive.ph/jyljT

I recommend listening to the q&a section of the webcast. You'll get a feeling that current analysts covering HBR are caught out by the amazing FCF, remaining development optionalities, smaller than expected WT impact and speed of debt reduction. You could even hear LC trying to "play down" Timpan with statements like "we do not want to get everyone excited until we have drilled more in the block/appraise more..."

A major rerate will be coming up for sure just in time for most people to be back from their holidays next week!

another Times article: Harbour set for $300m hit from new energy levy

The biggest oil and gas producer in the North Sea has said the government’s Energy Profits Levy will cost it about $300 million this year.

Linda Cook, chief executive of Harbour Energy, also suggested that the additional 25 per cent charge was doing little to encourage investment in the basin, even though it offers tax breaks for spending in the UK.
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good for times to point out this at the end of the article:

Rival global commodity traders of Glencore’s include Vitol Group and Trafigura. The latter made a first-half net profit in June of $2.7 billion, 27 per cent up year-on-year, on the back of the extreme volatility in markets, while this month Vitol, an oil trader, reported a profit of $4.2 billion for last year and gave $3 billion to its executives and senior staff through share buybacks.

https://archive.ph/FPxcz

BP will waste their cashflow on windfarm auctions and CCS projects... and BL is the reason why WT was implemented

HBR gas price post hedge is only 69p. The ones that should be worried are the commodity traders.

very much support an Asian expansion. Note there's also a big risk of windfall/green tax in the US and even Shell is selling.

It's possible they are waiting for the Rencong-1X results as a big find there would cement the Andaman gas fields potential as an LNG export hub i.e higher international gas prices compared to the capped local Indonesian prices.

wow wow wow!

- net debt reduced from 2.3B to 1.1B!
- EPS increased from 0.1 to 1.1!
- material timpan discovery confirmed
- EPL fears much reduced with impact estimated at 300m for full year

I hope buffet sees this and spare us some billions

nstabz, you should ask the mods to delete your post before you get into trouble

Rystad ranks Timpan as 5th highest discovered volumes from high impact wells worldwide for 2022 YTD at ~150mmboe (potentially conservative). As per SKK Migas, it should be around 1.5tcf=250mmboe + 70bbl/MMscf condensate= 355mmboe.

https://www.naturalgasworld.com/bouncing-back-high-impact-well-activity-set-to-rebound-this-year-after-2021-slump-100343

It might be different this time as the greenie publications will paint a picture where HBR is profiting greatly from gas prices. This might expose HBR to the general public who might not be aware of the company at all, and it may generate some buying interests.

I also expect some kind of strategy clarification this time on what's the next step for HBR. Now that the capital reduction is effective, this would mean either more buybacks, dividends or even a proposal to take the company private /demerger or relist elsewhere?

wahoo is a prospect in Mexico NSS, nothing to do with the Brazilian one

PLEASE COPY AND PASTE YOUR SELECTION IN NUMERICAL ORDER PLEASE.

£3.84 Bushmanbob
£4.12 Banburyboy
£4.21 Keepsteady
£4.38 nICKEL 123
£4.55 steve17
£4.60 NSS
£4.69 Stingray77
£4.71 Sekforde
£4.75 KeepItSimple
£4.78 Not My Job
£4.84 Wellintervention
£6.09 kign

SOL goes to zero, WSB found this gem :)

nice...I think I'm only betting half a house :)

good points sasa, but I think these traders are really good at hiding the money and could be operating from Luxembourg like the tech companies, paying billions of royalties to some "intellectual property".

I'm still recovering from covid as you can see from my sparse "ramping" :)

A successful Rencong-1X (estimated 4Tcf) would definitely increase the value of Timpan as this would mean there will be sufficient quantity of gas to increase the lucrative LNG export capacity in Arun. As it'll be testing multiple potential hydrocarbon bearing reservoirs, this would also increase prospectivity of the entire region.

for interested parties, there's an interesting paper on Rencong-1X in the link below:
https://www.seapex.org/wp-content/uploads/Abstract/SEC%202019%20Abstracts%20-%20Session%206%20-%20Indonesia%20Revisited%201%20-%20Sumatra.pdf

we apply 70% recovery factor to gas and the condensate based on the test rates are 70bbl/MMscf. So apply that 6Tcf (for whole Andaman II), we get:
- 4.2tcf of recoverable resources = 700mmboe
- condensate recoverable resources is then 294mmbbl
- combined resources = 994mmboe
- HBR's stake is 40% therefore it'll potentially add 398mmboe to 2C.

The good news is SKK migas said there's already 1.5tcf recoverable resources in timpan alone. There's still sangar cluster to drill and more structures around timpan, so it may possible to exceed 6tcf in this entire block!

DYOR

I think the reverse might happen where there'll be even more incentives to invest in oil and gas in the EU/UK:

- without cheap gas, vital raw materials e.g. steel will not be available for European renewable companies and they will have to resort to imports which constrains their output
- due to high inflation and a unionised workforce, European renewable companies will have to pay higher wages, killing any hopes of a profit margin and they will have to continue operating at a loss
- as these companies are heavily in debt and are dependent on governmental/corporate loans which are linked to inflation, higher interests will have to be paid and many will have to start obtaining even more loans or renegotiate for more

Now that EU has labelled gas as green, this is where renewable investments need to go :)

Get Kwazi on tech companies instead. You know they are hiding lots when they have to report employee taxes as indirect taxes. They are so flush in cash they could even fly to space for fun!

hopefully not, maybe just needs another sidetrack...

HBR needs to address their decline rate issue & revise their 2P estimates.

this is what they've said pre-merger:

- Chrysaor: H1 2020 of 187mboepd, 2P reserves of 542mmboe and 2C resources of 255mmboe

- Premier: H1 2020 of 67mboepd, 2P reserves of 175mblmboe

- Combined: 254mboepd, 2P: 717MMboe

From final year 2021 results:
- production guidance: 195-210kboepd
- 2P: 488mmboe

don't think the company has ever produced 254kboepd, sealion was not booked as 2P, tolmount was revised down from 48mmboe to 36mmboe (-12mmboe), production averaged 175kboepd since H2 2020 so that's 96MMboe reduction.

How did HBR revise down an additional 121mmboe of 2P reserves?