Member Info for kign

sekforde, good analysis, somewhat close to stifel estimates with some assumptions for capex claw back.

stifel numbers are around £560m currently (16% of3.5b marketcap back then) , and with the 10% increase, I guess it'll be £784m?

https://www.cityam.com/windfall-tax-hike-risks-no-new-investment-in-north-sea-warns-analyst/?amp=1

so overall not a very big deal like you said but HBR needs to think ahead of a future labour government that might raise it even more. So best to acquire something non-UK ASAP!

taconic holds quite alot of debt in Noble, so that's the reason for their shorting.

All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others...

backdate windfallsl tax to Amazon, Google and Apple

if they are proactive they should leak the consideration of the cancellation of Viking CCS now before actual news come on Thursday.

you forgot to mention the 10b debt...

there's nothing to fear when you look at arcm's fine.

best HBR signal is really their CCS projects. why are they even in the business when they are not in shell's or BP's league

One thing harbour could do is immediately withdraw from their CCS UK commitments or send a message that they are under strategic review. They are not tax deductible anyway. So end Viking and Acorn, then reinvest in CCS Indonesia.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/ipsos-survey-global-views-on-sustainability-2022

Ahead of COP27, Britons want subsidies on environmentally friendly tech while few want higher taxes on non-renewable energy sources

SK?

you're not considering the natural production decline. HBR already said tolmount will come off plateau soon and you'll have the portfolio doing 10% decline per year or so. 2p reserves will reduce around 73-75MMbbl this year alone!

Talbot is delayed and I don't see anything coming online anytime soon that can make up 20-30kboepd. There's an urgent need to replace reserves or buy production.

Otherwise, production guidance will likely be reduced next year.

I wonder if HBR can afford a merger with kosmos? 2p reserves of 580mmboe mostly in Africa:

- world class gas development 15tcf GTA in Mauritania/Senegal with more potential in Birallah & Yakaar Teranga
- current production ~60k from Jubilee & TEN + GoM + Equatorial Guinea

Enquest is mostly UK assets though but I like the low decline, and it looks like they have significant 2C reserves from Bressay and Bentley.

Unfortunately the government would rather listen to Greta than the oil producers. There's no turning back as the government is not trustworthy from the many u turns we have seen.

Best to just invest only outside the UK from now.

no need to wait, action speaks louder than words.

I say go ahead with the non-UK m&a now before EPL announcement next week

Rencong-1X is a failure:
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/aceh-still-attracting-exploration-interest-despite-subsurface-challenges/2-1-1345081

Harbour should take over this block as I think repsol looked at the wrong fault block!

Assuming Brent oil and UK gas market prices average $90/bbl and 220p/therm for the fourth quarter, resulting in $102/bbl and 212p/therm for the full year, and assuming no further changes to the UK fiscal regime, we forecast 2022 free cash flow (after tax and before shareholder distributions) of $2-2.2 billion, compared to previous guidance of $1.8-2.0 billion. The c.$200 million increase is driven by improved production levels, lower capital expenditure and higher commodity prices partially offset by the resulting higher UK cash tax payments, now forecast at c.$650 million. This includes c.$240 million relating to the December payment of Harbour's 2022 UK EPL liability now forecast to be c.$400 million with the c.$160 million balance to be paid in January 2023.

they're trying to make FCF look as small as possible, I think they are preserving cash for a non UK acquisition if epl is increased further.

you can check harbour production here:

https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/data-centre/nsta-open-data/production/

i think it's probably linked to noble's 79.3M shares...

very sad to see PIs happy to sell their shares at £5 when the fair value is at least £8.

you can't apply previous corp tax losses to WT.

and capex claw back might also be withdrawn with this flipflop government.