Member Info for kign

Zama spudded may-2017, discovery announced jul-2017. I would expect results by now (Kan) unless there's complications or nothing to announce until second prospect is also drilled (Ix)

driven mad by the share price, probably averaging down since takeover

- Shell pays $134M windfall tax in 2022 & UK 2022 production: 131.2kboepd
- HBR expects to pay >$600M windfall tax in 2022 & UK 2022 production: 190.6kboepd

*Production numbers from trove video on the top 10 uk producers which they referenced from bloomberg

I've also missed this article completely: https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-affirms-harbour-energy-at-bb-outlook-stable-29-09-2022

KEY RATING DRIVERS
Largest UKCS Producer: Harbour is the largest UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) producer by output. The company's current production (1H22: 211 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, kboe/d) is focused mainly on the UK (more than 90%) but well-diversified by hubs. Harbour operates over two-thirds of its projects, which makes its capex fairly flexible, and its portfolio is well-balanced between liquids (53% of production) and natural gas (47%).

Low Reserve Life: Harbour's reserve life is lower than peers'. Its 2P reserve life (based on projected 2022 production and end-2021 reserves) amounted to seven years, lower than Aker BP ASA's (BBB/Stable, 10 years) and Neptune Energy Group Midco Limited's (BB/Stable; 12 years). This is mitigated by Harbour's conservative leverage, which should allow for acquisitions, and substantial resources (2C), a significant share of which is close to assets in production or under development.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:
- Material improvement in the business profile (eg much higher proved reserve life and lower production costs) while maintaining a conservative financial profile (FFO net leverage below 1.5x and net debt to EBITDA below 1.2x on a sustained basis)

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:
- FFO net leverage consistently above 2.0x and net debt to EBITDA consistently above 1.7x
- Falling proved reserve life
- Falling absolute level of reserves
- Consistently negative FCF after dividends

Upstream oil and gas M&A opportunities in Indonesia for 2023

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/asia/480331/upstream-oil-and-gas-ma-opportunities-in-indonesia-for-2023/

Companies That May Exit
I won’t go through a full list of companies here, but will focus on those that have a decent-sized position in the country:
Repsol: have divested from the rest of Southeast Asia and I expect them to divest from Indonesia. They should get better value for Corridor with a 5-year extension to the GSA with Singapore and the potential to develop Kaliberau Dalam looks limited if they are to meet their commitment of all greenfield developments being net zero. I would make MedcoEnergi favourites for their assets but an interesting alternative would be for EIG (who hold 25% of Repsol upstream) to create a spin-off that could then continue to invest in Indonesia.
Mubadala: another company that has divested assets recently in Southeast Asia (Thailand), and we could see them exit Indonesia sooner rather than later. However, they may wait to confirm the materiality of their exploration acreage in Andaman before any exit.
Cenovus (Husky): following the merger of Husky and Cenovus, there has been little news in terms of their plans for the region. They continue to progress developments at their Madura Strait PSC but have limited other assets. It would be pretty easy to see a divestment to simplify their portfolio.

not alot of great choices unfortunately

I think you're right LTT, currently we have Tolmount East, Talbot, Burgman/Vardero and the pending Leverett appraisal which might see it through to 2024/25, but the profile decline will likely come every soon.

We might have to move on from Zama as Talos has even stopped showing it in their latest investor presentation! But we might be lucky with Kan/Ix which is currently being drilled.

Timpan which flowed 27mmscf/d and 1884bopd should be the main focus of the company. IHS's economic analysis showed a minimum economic field size of 580Bcf at a super low $5/mmbtu (50p/therm) and I think the 6tcf initial estimates might not be that far off.

Still, to replace say 10% of production every year would means we'll need 20kboepd replacement every year! there's not many options left in the market that's close to fid/near completion of development and also owned by non majors....GTA (Kosmos) is the only one that comes to my mind

stevo, I think you get "contribution" for the capex from the cost oil/gas portion or cost recovery portion of the psc contract for tuna?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/cnooc-3-billion-uk-portfolio-033359007.html

phew, I'm glad HBR is not in this

but yes otherwise I agree everything will be good if these tax allowances will continue with the new govt. Rishi should just give the North sea another boom as there's really no more hope for his party.

also if you think we can fast track it before labour comes into power? just look at Talbot where opred has been delaying everything for more than half a year now and they are still demanding new things to be done!

I think you've summed it up nicely in your assumption:
- Labour to reduce allowance to 75%?

NO, likely to be zero as this is what Labour said a few days ago:

A Labour government would “extend the windfall tax, closing the fossil fuel investment loophole, and taxing oil and gas giants at the same rate at which they’re taxed in Norway,” she said.

and last year this is what they said:

Labour calls for ‘hard-edged’ end date for oil and gas exploration. The UK must set a “hard-edged timetable” for the cessation of oil and gas exploration, Keir Starmer has said, as he revealed that Labour would not support the proposed Cambo oilfield development 77 miles north-west of Shetland.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/investors-have-become-super-bullish-about-oil-kemp-2023-01-30/

There was a strongly bullish orientation, with long positions outnumbering short ones by a ratio of 5.93:1 (80th percentile) up from 2.58:1 (23rd percentile) five weeks earlier.

The most bullish ratios are concentrated in Brent (86th percentile), U.S. gasoline (85th percentile) and U.S. diesel (86th percentile), with less optimism about European gas oil (65th percentile) and WTI (41st percentile).

Refinery maintenance in the United States is expected to deplete fuel inventories there but leave WTI prices trailing Brent, which probably explains the differential performance.

BP cuts long-term forecast for oil and gas demand

https://www.ft.com/content/857dfefa-98c6-4ed5-a0ad-5a7bb6669411

Despite the declines, in the New Momentum scenario global emissions would only fall 30 per cent from 2019 levels by 2050, according to the report, which added that a 95 per cent drop from 2019 levels was required for the world to achieve net zero emissions.
In that scenario, oil demand would remain around current levels, close to 100mn b/d, through “much of this decade” before declining gradually to about 75mn b/d by 2050.

Under the “Net Zero” scenario, the study’s most ambitious outlook for a reduction in emissions, demand would drop to 70mn b/d in 2035, falling to 20mn b/d by 2050.

However, BP argues that natural declines in existing oilfields mean investment in oil and gas production will still be required for the next 30 years, even under the “Net Zero” outlook.

LC! Cancel CCS now!

thanks stevo, enq looking pretty good to me

anyone has news on HBR's Mexican exploration?

stevo, are you more invested in HBR or ENQ?

IMHO stevo is quite positive...

i've just realised HBR has 18+% in Bressay (282MMbbl 2C gross), that's pretty significant even if you halve that reserve estimate...

you've missed this part:

For that to stand any chance of happening, oil would need to trade at around $100, and gas at 300p/t from this year onwards. In the base case scenario, shares in Harbour are expected to rise to 435p – that includes an adjustment for the net present value (NPV) of the UK windfall tax between 2022-2028.

EnQuest
Following a successful refinancing last year, shares in EnQuest could rise by 180% to 60p this year, in the most optimistic scenario. Realistically, Jefferies expects company stakes to grow to 27p, or drop to 10p in the worst case.

https://www.mei.edu/publications/somethings-brewing-chinas-teapot-refineries-and-middle-east-oil-producers

https://www.chemanager-online.com/en/news/chinas-quest-self-sufficiency-chemicals

unfortunately, future of oil is in the East. a Southeast Asian/Australian acquisition would be highly advantageous but I hope EIG will not offload the crappy CSG stuff to HBR with their Origin Energy acquisition

HBR, get out of CCS now! These fellas will never be happy even if you decarbonise for them.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/taxpayers-will-fund-wind-farms-for-north-sea-firms-say-critics-l9dlgjcpz

The government has been urged to ditch the proposed investment relief that will enable firms to claim a £109 tax break for every £100 they spend on decarbonising their assets.

The new tax break is due to be introduced through legislation promised in the spring.

Tessa Khan, executive director of Uplift, the campaign group, said that oil and gas companies should not be “hitting up the public for the costs of cleaning up their operations at a time when they are already making obscene profits at our expense”.