Member Info for KeithOz

@Dai, O/T for others. PRD is main market listed, not AIM, so needs to issue a prospectus before issuing the approved shares. That prospectus will need to include a CPR, which is being finalised.

I am curious if there is any relevance to the NHE announcement, but tomorrow (Friday) is the last day of the Australian financial year. Perhaps they want to show a large free cash balance at year-end, rather than showing how much funds are committed to a rig, so are waiting to sign until the next financial year, which starts Monday. Maybe there is some kind of tax issue which benefits from signing next financial year. I have no idea, just speculating on a possible reason for the delays.

If I were an SOU shareholder, I would be concerned that they were borrowing $237M at an unspecified interest rate just to get their Moroccan gas operation up and running. Have a look at the list of Conditions Precedent - the lenders will be running the company - this is just another benefit of being debt-free, as is PRD.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SOU/project-finance-update/16017161

I'm wondering if they could manage an RNS every day - MOU-4 spud tomorrow, anyone?

hmm, I accidentally hit shift at the same time as typing 4, and came up with MOU-$. I hesitated about bothering to correct it.

...and in jump the usual suspects shouting placing - doom & gloom - the sky's falling in - it's not, it's a loan by directors, as it says on the tin.

You are correct that some people (including me) make optimistic posts about the potential of PRD. When I make such a post, I clearly state the assumptions and/or existing facts that underline the reasoning for such optimism, and most of the other posters whom you consider over-bullish do likewise.

You folks, however, post negative remarks about the company, its management, and other posters on this board, without any justification by way of facts or valid reasoning. In particular, making comparisons with other companies whose only similarity to PRD is that they are in the O & G business is merely 'whataboutery'. You may feel it is your right to express such an empty opinion - of course it is, just as it is the right of others to point the valuelessness of doing so.

Furthermore, many of those you consider overbullish have real relevant qualifications and experience, and very often use their genuine, verifiable identity across social media when referring to PRD, as I do. You folks, however, of course remain anonymous keyboard warriors.

I hope you now understand why people here get p1ssed off by you. Have a happy Thursday - Keith.

There you are, boys, girls & others. No incredibly damaging and dilutive placement. MOU-4 & MOU testing funded. No capital raise until CNG development - and that can be funded without a capital raise, of course.

Had to look it up - Boyle's law plots as a hyperbolic curve - which is mathematicalese for starts off straight, then curves deeper you go. There's even a moving illustration on Wikipedia. I'm getting too old, too tired & too sober for this stuff.

@Dicko - May I amend your numbers a bit?

* For the MOU-Fan, the reservoir looks to be about twice the thickness of pre-drill estimates, so perhaps a figure of 600 BCF?

* I know I provided a depth:pressure rule of thumb, but GEF is not directly proportional to pressure (see Boyle's Law) - there is a constant in the equation, so that while the graph starts off roughly straight, it then curves the deeper you go. For Titanosaurus, I suggest perhaps 150.

* On the positive side, I expect better than 20% porosity for the Jurassic carbonates in MOU-4. Perhaps 25%?

* Lots of unknowns for the Jurassic, especially reservoir thickness. I would prefer to wait and see rather than over-speculate. The drill followed by the CPR will be a good base to work from.

* The NPV $ value per BCF is debateable - it will be high for CNG, lower for G2P, and low for G2EU. Whatever it is, a purchaser will not pay that amount - they want a very substantial discount to reflect risk / cost of development / their profit.

* Whatever you come up with, the NPV is likely to be well above a $ Bn or two, which even after the purchaser's discount still gives a very healthy multiple of today's market cap.

Que sera sera. (HBob - no need to paste a link to the song)

@PoC. It said "formation gas 3%". That is gas detected in the drilling mud despite the pressure exerted on the reservoir by the mud. 3% is twice that at MOU-1, which was at 2700psi, and MOU-1 was in turn higher than Anchois-1 which everybody raved about at the time. Formation gas is a reliable first indicator that a gas reservoir has been intersected. Additionally, could you please explain how the shallow gas reservoirs detailed in the previous RNS were overpressured, but the lower ones are not?

MOU-3 is an appraisal well of a previous discovery - that's why the independent CPR has given Contingent Resource status.

More likely the Fog & F#ck.

NOMAD? PRD is a main market company. There is obviously enough cash to drill MOU-4, more may be needed for the testing of MOU-1 to 4, but that need not be a placing. Nice try though.

@gg. 1. It's already a discovery - this is appraisal of Contingent Resources. 2. You can only verify commerciality after flow testing. Whoever thinks this is "not very encouraging" needs a head transplant.

Hundred Acre Wood was looking very green – all the trees had grown so fast, taking all that extra carbon dioxide out of the air. Lots of new animals had arrived, and some who had been there for a while had just started speaking to the others for the first time. Pooh and Christopher Robin had decided that this morning they would have a special picnic to celebrate.

“Wow” squealed Piglet “That's such an exciting RNS, it's blown my bl**dy house door off”

“Not really,” said Eeyore gloomily, “That's quite a low concentration of rock in the gas”

BOING!!! Tigger the Top Predator had arrived, “Let's get Kanga & Roo and tell all the folks in Hundred Acre Wood”

Roo popped his head out of Kanga's pouch and addressed the gathering:

“An excellent result all round, for the company, for shareholders and for Morocco. While we still need the reservoir connectivity and flow testing to confirm the full scale of what we have, PRD & ONHYM would not release this detailed information unless they have a high degree of confidence.

Several overpressured reservoirs in one drill is pretty good going! Total net pay of 0ver 60m very comfortably exceeds pre-drill estimates, with 43m for testing, this suggests very strongly that the CPR P50 figures for the MOU-Fan (295 BCF net to PRD) and for the Middle Sands (320 net) are conservative, and will be moving towards the combined P10 figures of 1+ TCF.

Even better, these are good thick reservoirs - the thicker the reservoir bed, the higher the gas flow rate per vertical metre, as Methodology has demonstrated over on Reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/t8ssg0/mou1_the_rharb_basin_net_pay_vs_well_flow_rate/

We could be looking at 50+ mmcfd just from MOU-3, which would underpin the target 34 mmcfd for Stage 2 of the CNG project. Obviously we will need two, or preferably three, producing wells in order to ensure continuity of supply, but that is what MOU-1 and MOU-4 (plus possibly MOU-2) are for. The potential for 250 mmcfd should now be clear to a potential partner or purchaser.

Expect the announcement of a signed contract for forward gas sales very soon, possibly in advance of release of the formal gas flow test results. Hold on to your hats.”

“Thanks Roo, the market will be open soon.” said Pooh, rubbing his tummy. “Let's all go and have our picnic breakfast – we have a BIG pot of honey to share”.

Remember to look out for Chapter 4 – Titanosaurus comes to Hundred Acre Wood.

If you go down in the woods today, you're sure of a big surprise

If you go down in the woods today, you'd better go in disguise

For every bear that ever there was

Will gather there for certain because

Today's the day the teddy bears have their picnic

Caution - this is just a ramp for fun.

You often see quotes in an RNS from the heads of both companies when a deal is announced.

What if the RNS is delayed because King Mohammed VI wants to include a comment on the importance for Morocco?

Sounds of jaws hitting table.

@DaveR - To imagine fill-to-spill, I'm afraid you have to think upside down again. This time, the inverted pudding basin has a wavy rim. Gas rises up from below, fills the whole basin, then being less dense than the surroundings, 'spills' upwards from the uppermost part of the rim - what would be the first place water would spill from if the basin was the right way up. So before the spill takes place, all the reservoirs in the basin are filled. We can see a gas cloud or gas chimney rising up towards the surface from the east of the MOU-Fan, which is the part of the basin rim closest to the surface. It has a quite distinct appearance on the seismic, as a random jumble of reflections.

The reason some of us are excitedly jumping up and down is that we believe 1/ the reservoir sands have exceptional porosity & permeability 2/ they appear to be fully charged (fill-to-spill) 3/ that charge is at high pressure 4/ there are plenty more structures with the same potential within the Guercif licences.

@gg. OK, I'll make a fool of myself by trying 🤡

Let's go back to the old upside-down pudding basin analogy - that is the structural closure. We're going to fill it with pancakes with layers of jam in between. The pancakes are reservoir sands - Ma is shorthand for Messinian age sandstone, TGB is a bit older, and stands for Taza-Guercif Basin sands - there's several of them, with TGB 1 the oldest & deepest. The jam is impervious rock such as mudstones or salt layers.

We take the upside-down pudding basin and pump steam into it from below, then drill a hole down through the bottom. To our surprise, steam blasts out the hole from the uppermost pancake. How did that happen, when the layers of jam should have prevented the steam from moving up above the first pancake? Someone must have stuck a knife through all the layers of pancakes and jam, allowing the steam to migrate upwards. That of course is the migration pathway - the faulting which has been identified by seismic, allowing gas to flow up under pressure into the upper reservoir layers.

Now here's the bit that the market has missed. How could you get gas under pressureup to the top reservoir without filling all the other reservoirs on the way? Only if the seal above each reservoir was leaky. But that's not the case - we know from MOU-1 that some of the lower reservoirs (which are continuous with those we will encounter in MOU-3) are already charged with high pressure gas, so the seals must be intact. So it seems geo-logical that all eight (or more?) reservoirs in MOU-3 can be expected to be gas charged. I hope that any delay in the RNS is, as @olderandwiser suggests, due to the huge amount of data they are having to crunch.

Phew.

@gg - I don't really have any. There is an obvious redistribution of small grey dots on the drill pad after three weeks of them being in the same place, but what they are is unknown at the resolution available. My guess is that drilling finished on Friday. What I don't know is which of three options is happening:

* wireline logging (1-2 days) as was the case with the two previous holes, was completed on Friday with the rig.

* they were logging Saturday/Sunday with the rig.

* they are going to move the rig (which would add a couple of days) and log using the coiled tubing unit.

Paul mentioned a CTU at the May 18th presentation, my assumption was that this was going to be used for cleaning up MOU-1 and perforation & flow testing of both wells, but it could also be used for logging if they want to move the rig to MOU-4.

Even if logging operations are finished at MOU-3, they need to review the results and agree the wording of the RNS with ONHYM, and probably also make sure Fox-Davies are happy. Today was really the earliest all that could be done, no reason that it shouldn't be finalised by the end of the week.

“When you wake up in the morning, Pooh,” said Piglet at last, “what’s the first thing you say to yourself?”

“What’s for breakfast?” said Pooh.

“What do you say, Piglet?”

“I say, I wonder what’s going to happen exciting to-day?” said Piglet.

Pooh nodded thoughtfully.

“It’s the same thing,” he said.