Member Info for KeithOz

Right, I'm out by a factor of 10 - it's 1.15TCF (ONLY!!!) - too many digits for my calculator!

Could someone please check this calculation. I know I'm assuming 11m thickness throughout, it will obviously pinch out to zero at some point, so it's reasonable to at least halve the volume, but even so, I'm finding it hard to believe the result.

6km² = 6,000,000 m²

11m thick

20% porosity

66% recoverable

Gas expansion factor = 50 (don't know actual figure, but shallow, overpressured, I'm assuming low, could be twice this)

75% attributable to PRD

6,000,000 x 11 x 0.2 x 0.66 x 0.75 x 50 = 326,700,000 m³

1m³ = 35.31ft³

326.7M x 35.3 = 11.5 TCF (for same thickness across the whole reservoir)

Yes, sorry for the over-reaction - but my initial guestimate is that this previously unexpected reservoir is likely to contain more gas than the Middle Sands, which we have not yet even reached - Middle Sands low/best/high is 110/320/659 BCF.

So there are stacked reservoirs - this new one at the top, Middle Sands will be next, with the MOU-Fan below. Yummy.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weKiqtpRF7g

Published yesterday - this showed up (in Arabic!) on Telegram yesterday - thanks Paul B. Predator is now a 'giant' :-)

https://www.facebook.com/guercif24com - translation tidied up a bit.

"A British company confirms the presence of 11 billion cubic meters [388BCF] of gas in the region of Guercif.

British giant "Predator Oil and Gas Holding" launched MOU-3 well drilling operations in the province of Guercif, making it the third well on the same field where gas exploration has begun.

Predator Oil and Gas Holding signed a contract with the Moroccan company Skyavers to build a platform for MOU-3 and prepare roads to it. The company had previously launched civil engineering work on the project since last April, in order to facilitate the construction of drilling operations during the period between the end of last May and the beginning of June, after completing licensing and necessary studies.

Regarding funding, the gas company announced it had proposed 15.5 million new shares for terms, with a total value of up to £2 million, i.e. £2.4 million to funding the British company.

The company itself confirmed, in a previously published report, there are promising reserves of gas in the Guercif area, estimated at 11 billion cubic metres.

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One comment:

"Thirty years ago or more, we have been hearing about the discovery of gas or oil, and we have not seen even one cubic metre".

@aligator. "I can only guess that several hundred miles will be via earth roads, which will slow the journey considerably"

Why do you only post FUD? 10 seconds of research will show that there are 8200km of paved trunk roads across Tanzania, including all the way from Dar es Salaam to Mbeya & Rukwa. As Skittish has posted today, the last couple of km to the Tai-3 site is not asphalt, but has been constructed specifically to take the required traffic.

I'm looking forward to MOU-4 being re-named to MOU-99.

@gg - The mud section encountered by the MOU-2 drill can be correlated with a particular seismic signature, which is not present at the MOU-3 position.

Maybe you are reading too much into someone crystallising a capital loss for tax purposes?

Here's a rather folksy, but nevertheless interesting & accurate, video on the geology of salt deposits under the Gulf of Mexico. I'm sure I don't need to tell you just how much oil is under the GoM, and you can see from the seismic slices shown here all the possibilities for trapping hydrocarbons.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2Qqslr5ytY

I appreciate that some of this (especially the linked papers) is rather technical. I reference it in the hope that it gives some background as to why some of us here believe that there is a lot, lot more potential for the Guercif licences than just the MOU-Fan. Needless to say, there is much interest in what the lower half of the MOU-4 drillhole will reveal.

GRH is referring to salt deposits, which act like an extremely viscous liquid and slowly rise to the surface due to the weight of the overlying rocks - these form domes that penetrate those overlying strata - these are called diapirs. There is such a layer of Triassic salt underlying the Jurassic around Guercif, as well as many other gas & oil-bearing regions of the world. Hydrocarbons become pooled within reservoirs abutting these salt domes.

We had a private discussion on this potential a few months back. Since it was a private discussion, I will post only some of my side of the conversation, but I am sure Graham will not mind me saying that he was in general agreement.

"I haven't researched the Guercif Jurassic in as much depth, since it is mostly associated with oil rather than gas. Oil does not fit with the Predator energy transition positioning, and there is no refinery nor oil infrastructure in Morocco, so I have always assumed the oil opportunity will be taken up by a purchaser rather than by PRD.

You have mentioned the Zizi 1996 paper a few times – have you seen the follow-up by Sani & Zizi, 2000?

https://researchgate.net/publication/46603074_The_Neogene_Taza-Guercif_Basin

Fig 4 shows how complex the Jurassic stratigraphy can be over short distances, with huge changes in thickness and petrology. Some of this results from erosion of the Upper Jurassic giving a discontinuity before the deposition of the Tortonian, but the main controlling factor is the series of half-graben faults. Many of these have associated positive flower structures, providing favourable trapping potential.

Another trapping possibility is provided by diapirs of Triassic salt and/or mud penetrating the Jurassic. I suspect that these are a lot more common than is generally acknowledged – someone more familiar with the local geology suggested that just about every Jurassic anticline had a diapir at its core – the limited gravity data I have seen (trying to locate the source paper) would suggest that may be correct. The diapirism seems to be closely controlled by the fault geometry.

There are some good thicknesses of marl which should provide a good seal within the Jurassic strata. We know that of the two large reef structures identified by PRD, MOU-NW definitely has oil – this was confirmed back in 1924. As you know, carbonate material from strata analogous to MOU-NE has leached porosity development, and that indicates hydrocarbons close by."

and

from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1464343X20300480

"Most of these anticlines are nucleated by diapiric Triassic evaporates (Benzaquen et al., 1965; Colletta, 1977)."

Colletta is a Swiss PhD thesis, can't locate the 1965 one."

If certain people didn't have a phobia about satellites, they would see that 1. This is not a desert. 2. It has been raining heavily for several days this week - as a result the numerous watercourses and ponds are full. 3. Jimmy is kind & patient enough to confirm what everyone else but the usual suspect already knows, it is of course supplied by truck, which then pumps it into the storage tank which is visible just outside the drill pad, northern end of the east side.

Where are the neurons coming from for a brain to function? - bit of a shortage in that area.

Just watched this while having lunch. Of interest to HE1 shareholders:

* Oxford Uni model suggests He concentration of 3-5%, compared to 4.4% in original He1 CPR, 1.32% in latest Tai CPR.

* Very strong interest from offtakers - intend to sell direct from wellhead to midstreamers, who will pay for plant, in order to avoid major capital costs.

* 15mmcfd (presumably total gas = N + He) assumed for commerciality

* HE1 drill in August, then Mbelele in September, 2nd NHE drill in October, rig possibly retained for production wells.

* Q - When will rig contract be signed? - A - We're working all documentation & getting rig up to scratch. All to be signed & rig on boat by end of month.

* Full DST costs $4M, so will not be bringing equipment and team into Tanzania. Instead will be mini-DST & NDT only.

* Have executed data swap with HE1, but does not yet cover data from upcoming wells.

* Lots of Q's about HE1 - Justyn said this is an NHE presentation, DYOR on HE1!

* In summing up, they said the thing of most interest to NHE management from the upcoming drilling is the He concentration, but even at 1% it will be commercially viable.

Share price closed yesterday at 19.5¢, At close of webinar is 7% down at 18.25¢, presumably due to lack of confirmation of rig contract signature. Hope this is useful info - Keith

Hidden away in the notes at the bottom of today's AGM notice is this: "Disko Exploration Ltd holds two additional projects in Greenland - the 692 sq km Kangerluarsuk zinc-lead- silver project, where historical work has recovered grades of up to 45.4% zinc, 9.3% lead and 596 g/t silver and a summer drill programme is to commence on multiple large-scale drill targets".

P.13 of the presentation, cost per drill given as A$10.8M, = US$7.2M. Also note that Mbelele is not going to be completed for production - it will be p & a'd after testing. That seems rather a lot for a shallow vertical drill just for discovery purposes, maybe costs of getting the rig to a remote location are prohibitive, and it is that cost that has previously caused the difficulty in finding a rig provider prepared to do a single well. Completion for production would likely cost an additional US$1M.

@fj40 - the agreement between HE1 & NHE clearly says that HE1 will go first.

@gg - you don't need to be a pro to know that an answer to your question is impossible. Only death & taxes are certain. Do you really think you could buy at 6p if everything was 100% guaranteed?

Interesting that SDX, with OHNYM's help has renegotiated a gas supply agreement with its major customer to get a better price. Doesn't say how much, but last year, they produced 5MMcfgd at an average $10.39/Mcf, down from $11.34 in 2021.

@Dai. Around $3M, not including testing. Operators are Canadian outfit Star Valley. Their rig lives in Morocco full time, Crew fly in from Calgary as necessary.