Member Info for KeithOz

Jeez, Jimmy, both your eyesight and your seismic interpretation skills are streets ahead of mine 😎

@Androcles - not only is the change of stance on publicity interesting, but so was the mention that work for the CNG plant is progressing, at the same time showing a major ceramics factory - but mentioning neither ceramics nor the name of the company producing them. Is this another case of 'join the dots'?

If I worked at Flagstaff, I would put that out to UK media with an English voice over.

Good morning, boys & girls. I hope you were all able to sleep soundly despite the excitement. I notice there are a few new names on the board this week - welcome everybody. @LifeofPi had asked about what we might expect further down MOU-3, which I am sure is an answer we would all like to know in advance. I can't know the answer, of course, but there are a few pointers.

Economic gas will only be found in rock strata with sufficient porosity & permeability to host gas - our reservoirs, so unfortunately we will not encounter 750m of gas. What we expect to find is:

*Middle Sands - 24m net pay (total thickness of actual reservoir rock), at 65% saturation & 66% recoverability, giving P50 (50% chance of exceeding this number) of 320 BCF, P10 (10% chance of exceeding this number) of 659 BCF, all volumes net to PRD, data from the 2020 CPR.

*MOU-Fan turbidites - 19m net pay at 66% saturation & 66% recoverability, giving P50 of 295 BCF and P10 of 708 BCF, all net to PRD, data from the 2022 CPR.

So pre-drill estimates were for 42m of net reservoir from the 1500m borehole. The main factor that will move the gas volumes from the P50 numbers towards the P10 (or beyond!) is reservoir thickness. I find it encouraging that in MOU-2 a displaced section of MOU-Fan reservoir was found some 26m thick, mostly good quality sand. Furthermore, as you know, an additional and unexpected 11m reservoir was found at shallow depth in MOU-3. I have the expectation that we will find substantially more net pay than was proposed pre-drill.

Other less important factors are:

* the gas saturation, or %age of pore space containing gas. The 65/66% used in the two CPRs looks rather low given that we have a significantly overpressured system.

* the gas recoverability is given as 66% - as many of you know, a figure of 90% has been achieved for many of the wells in the west of the Gharb basin.

Anyway, we will find out soon enough. I suspect we are close to TD now. I repeat my view that if there is to be a TD-only RNS, I do not expect it before Wednesday 21st. PRD have stated that the next RNS will be post-logging, not just TD, if so I expect that at earliest Friday 23rd or more likely Monday 26th. I am happy to be wrong if we get positive news earlier!

w/c 26th June the team will be going through all the data from MOU-1 & MOU-3, and selecting the reservoir intervals most likely to provide good gas flow. These will then be tested; I expect results w/c 3rd July. Based on the flow tests there will be the announcement of a forward gas sales agreement, or just possibly a capital raise, to fund MOU-4 drilling & testing during July, and possibly include finishing off MOU-2 as well.

Now three times in a week!

"The hour draws near. If you are going to put many eggs in one basket, at least make sure you select a good basket, and then watch it very closely... The Guercif basin is that basket. Good 'luck' to all 'Predators'."

I don't normally comment on the share price, but interesting (to me, anyway) how humans like round numbers. The bid hits 10p, and within 15 minutes the traders unload 1½ million shares. Oh well, their loss.

@Dicko, thanks for doing these calculations - may I add a couple of things?

* If a TD-only RNS is issued, I don't expect it before Wednesday 21st, although I'm happy to be wrong.

* If a post-logging RNS, as stated in the 13th June RNS, I expect that either Friday 23rd or Monday 26th.

* The 295 BCF Contingent resource for the MOU-Fan is already net to PRD, so no need to multiply by 0.75.

* Upsides will depend mostly on reservoir thickness - early indications are that we may exceed pre-drill estimates.

* The P10 numbers (10% chance of exceeding this amount), all net to PRD, are - MOU-Fan TGB2 / TGB6 / MA1 = 708 BCF, plus TGB3/4 middle sands target = 659 BCF, giving a total of 1.367 TCF, not including any extra horizons we have picked up on the way down.

* Let's see what we have in MOU-3 before we start valuing MOU-4 !

@O & W. Guercif graben is relatively small, North Sea & northern Gulf of Mexico are the flooded remains of much larger and older systems caused by continental drift. The East African Rift System is still very much a work in progress, although the Red Sea end is more developed. All these have extensive hydrocarbon systems. I can't guarantee that every graben will hold oil or gas, but most seem to - this is because the sediments between the spreading continental blocks subside deep enough to reach the temperatures and pressures necessary to turn organic matter into oil and/or gas. It is well recognised that some of the best hydrocarbon traps occur up against the graben walls - these are basement margin fault closures. Also associated with sediment slumping along the graben wall are synsedimentary faults - those that occur around the time that the sediments are being laid down - these act as both oil & gas conduits later on, and also trapping structures. I posted a diagram of these on Twitter a while ago which newer members may not have seen -

https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1626041438688657410/photo/1

https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1626040662977310720/photo/1

Guercif has both kinds of traps (as well as other kinds!)

Not O/T this time. GRH has alluded to grabens on Twitter - I am sure by now you are all aware of the Guercif graben. You may not be aware of another, more relevant British curiosity - the North Sea is a graben, and I seem to recall that a small amount of hydrocarbons have been found there 😆.

I don't suggest you read this paper - you will get a severe migraine - but just look at the pictures. Start with Fig 4 on P.6 that shows all the parallel faulting, then look at Figs 3 & 2 that show the location of the oil & gas fields.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/2204/c/pdf/B2204C.pdf

O/T! Some geographical info:

* I did a little lecturing at the Cambourne School of Mines, so can confirm that Mousehole is indeed both in Cornwall and a lovely spot (when not overrun by emmets - Kernow for ants, i.e. tourists), but is pronounced Mowzl. It also rains a lot there.

* I have done a little caving at Malham Cove when much younger and less sensible, but didn't get to go down the interestingly named Braithwaite's Wife's Hole which is an ancient sinkhole into a chain of undergound caverns at the foot of Ingleborough.

I think you are spot on, skittish, esp. re. Noble. I would just point out as an example, the stuff they have been trumpeting about basement margin fault closures. Yes, there has been 100% success rate with BMFCs in ONE rift, finding HYDROCARBONS. Rukwa NE side BMFC has been drilled previously for hydrocarbons, without success. I cannot find any record of that well hitting helium. Also, BMFCs are likely to contain a lower volume of helium, since migration into the potential trap is prevented from 180° of directions due to the basement rock itself.

Lastly, as I have said before, NHE's licences are further away from the Rungwe Volcanic Province than are HE1's. This is important, because it is the hot fluid & gas from RVP that drives the lateral migration of helium - our licences are in the 'sweet spot' for He concentrations, NHE's are not. We have an independent CPR, NHE have 'management estimates'.

Lorna is a highly experienced geoscientist who has worked in the East African Rift System, so she knows all this, and all the risks that working with Noble entails. I am sure there is daily contact with NHE, especially after their volte face on funding, and I would not be at all surprised to hear next week that HE1 is going it alone.

Hi MEM, coincidentally @Dicko asked almost the same questions on the other board. Since it is almost my bedtime I will copy & paste:

MOU-NE / Titanosaurus is thought to have 200m GROSS reservoir interval. We don't know what the NET pay is until drilling - it could be one or two thin beds, or several big fat ones within that 200m. There is a MOU-NE CPR floating about, presumably that will be updated with next month's drilling before release.

While last week's data has derisked the MOU-4 drill MOU-Fan targets, the cos for the underlying Jurassic target is unchanged. The structure area has been upgraded from 102km² to 126km². MOU-4 is not targeting the highest point of the structure as originally planned, but is positioned so that it intercepts both the MOU-Fan & MOU-NE.

The MOU-NE reservoirs are a lot deeper than the shallow sands announced last week, so the gas is under much greater lithostatic pressure, so will give more gas per m³ of reservoir.

and I will add -

* gas cloud - I think this is primarily related to spill from the MOU-Fan turbidite structure, although we have had a brief discussion on here as to whether it originates partly form a deeper structure (MOU-NE) as well.

* there is very limited 2D seismic over MOU-NE, we simply don't know if the postulated reservoirs extend over the whole structure - very probably not, since reefs are usually structurally complex. I expect that 3D will be necessary and probably 10 - 20 drills sunk. This is obviously very expensive and time consuming, and Paul has made it clear that he does not want to do this, but sell out to someone a lot bigger - this would be even more the case if MOU-NE is primarily oil.

* other prospects - yes, lots, but I think that PRD will get the CNG project either up and running, or else just fully planned, and then sell out of Morocco and leave the rest to a big company, but hopefully retaining either stub equity or a royalty. Whatever, hopefully quantifiable success at MOU-3 & -4 will make the market sit up and realise that potentially the whole Guercif graben is hydrocarbon charged, and is a very valuable piece of real estate.

* other mu

@colon - 👍🎯💥🚀💲 - Keith

There appears to be a possible misunderstanding across the various PRD antisocial media, so I just posted this on the other board: The photo I originally posted on Twitter demonstrates that oil was flowed on MOU-NW, not MOU-NE (which is now renamed Titanosaurus). Both are Jurassic carbonate reef structures, but on opposite sides of the Guercif graben. NW is some 100km², Titanosaurus 126km². Titanosaurus is expected to yield gas at the point MOU-4 is being drilled next month, but HSSI shows we can also expect oil in this structure, but probably not at the MOU-4 location.

Predator are primarily looking for gas, which is readily processed and for which there is a hungry market in Morocco. Oil exploration requires a partner or purchaser with very deep pockets - the wells will be deeper and more expensive, and importantly there is no working oil infrastructure (pipelines, refinery, etc) in Morocco.

I will add here "other carbonate reef structures are also available" Don't seem to be able to post emojis from the Land of Oz, but if I could it would be a face with a VERY large smile! Have a great weekend.

@donalb SOU mcap is £32M, but yes, still a deal that underlines the market for gas assets.

Twice in a week - things definitely looking up!

"Are these the last few sessions before the Guercif superbasin spills her secrets...?

Two overpressured reservoirs already discovered in the Moulaya fan.

Bar unforseen operational snafus, a momentous rerate is fast approaching.

Good luck all."

I am in 100% agreement.

@Mariachi. I'm sorry, I don't understand what makes no sense. Mou-4 is targeting a Neogene turbidite fan, underlain by a Jurassic carbonate reef.

The turbidite sand reservoirs have already been demonstrated to be charged with overpressure gas - MOU-4 and MOU-3 are appraisal wells which are to be followed up with flow testing.

Due to the complex geological events, including two inversions of the Guercif graben and substantial periods of erosion resulting in discontinuities, the Jurassic is relatively close to the surface. Analogous Jurassic strata from nearby have shown enhanced porosity development, and as I mentioned earlier, a similar reef structure on the opposite side of the graben has flowed substantial quantities of oil.

Mariachi - you want a large carbonate formation? How about Titanosuarus (formerly MOU-NE), 126km² Jurassic carbonate reef? Being drilled by Predator in about 3 weeks' time - will that do? btw, here's a photo of MOU-NW, another Jurassic carbonate reef in PRD's licence area, on the other side of the Guercif graben, taken 98 years ago, when they actively produced oil.

https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1504653923541393408/photo/1

"a company living on the edge in terms of funding". LMAO, must try harder.

Just had to answer the same question on Telegram.

Cavities within a reservoir that have developed as a result of individual mineral crystals having been leached out by circulating fluids. This occurs most commonly in limestones/carbonates due to dissolution by fluids derived from hydrocarbons. Vugs increase the porosity, and indicate hydrocarbons nearby - GRH & I are sure they will make an appearance when the Jurassic strata are drilled in MOU-4. On p.12 of this GKP presentation is a pretty picture of vuggy limestone from Shaikan:

https://files.investis.com/gulfkeystone/presentations/kurdistan.pdf