Member Info for KeithOz

I guess if you had just pulled up 1500m of drill pipe you would need to stack it somewhere out of the way of the CTU you had just brought on site...

I know no one is much interested, but after no change for three weeks, a lot of stuff has been moved around on the MOU-3 drill pad between Thursday & Saturday.

Hmm, we are starting to see an interesting range of valuations. OilyFred's people (industry or PE?) apparently want to start at 25/30p per share for the whole company. This week's industry deal comparison suggests £3 per share just for MOU, Paul wants $150M per 40 BCF, which would give £11.50 per share for just 1 TCF at MOU. MEM's friends (Middle East Money) tell us that there are 19 TCFs at Guercif. This all suggests an improvement on the current 10p. Comfy seat & popcorn at the ready.

@BRV - brief reply before my bed time :-) The deeper you go in the Guercif basin, the more complex the geological structures, including the fact that whole tens of millions of years' worth of strata have been eroded in some, but not all, places. Therefore exploration time & costs increase substantially. Across most of North Africa, the Triassic, particularly TAGI sands (French - Triassic Argilo-Gréseux Inférieur) form the major oil reservoirs, so yes, any purcahser will want to look at the potential. In Morocco, the TAGI are being appraised by Sound Energy with mixed success - the main problem seems to be lower porosity & permeability than elsewhere in North Africa, but no one at this stage knows if that will also be an issue for any Triassic on the Guercif licence.

Paul is 70, and has had a stressful life. I imagine he would be very happy to make his shallow, hugely lucrative, discovery and leave the rest to someone with more time & money. I know I would.

As Steve Miller said: "Take the money and run. Find yourself a place in the sun..."

@Lancy. Seabright is absolutely spot on in identifying the unique geology of the Guercif area. All I would add is that the Guercif rift valley structure has undergone inversion twice - sinking down as the rift opens, then being squashed back up as the rift closes again.

The first rift opening process resulted in a huge thickness of sediment being deposited over the underlying organic-rich shales, which sunk to a depth where the increased heat and pressure was sufficient to convert the organic matter into both oil and gas. When the rift closed, the upper deposits were extensively faulted as Seabright has described.

Then Mother Nature played her ace - during the second, more gentle, sequence, impervious layers were laid down on top during the subsidence phase, just before the deep sediments - now containing hydrocarbons - were squeezed again in the second rift closing & uplift, causing the oil & gas to migrate up the fault system and become trapped in reservoirs below the seal. Which is where we will hopefully find it next week 🥂

@Dickie. 3 or 4 (inc MOU-2) wells should have had reservoir volumes and flow rates established by end-July. First CNG production is scheduled for 12 months later - I understand the longest lead time is for tanker trucks of the necessary high specification - I believe USA manufacture. This will ramp up rapidly to 10mmcfd, with a target of 34mmcfd after 24 months (mid 2025). The current Morocco industrial market demand is 50mmcfd, so the excess will need to either supply local power stations or be piped to Europe. These two options are capital intensive and will require far more resources than are available to PRD.

Paul has made it clear that he intends to sell a majority ownership in PRD's Moroccan subsidiary Predator Gas Ventures Ltd., with a major O & G company the likely purchaser or operator. Hopefully Paul will be able to negotiate either a production royalty or retain stub equity, so that PRD shareholders benefit in the long term from as yet undiscovered assets. How long the purchaser takes to get G2P or G2EU going is up to the purchaser. I suspect that getting the CNG operation up and running is not just a profit generator for PRD, but an advert that the whole Guercif licence is a money spinner.

I would not be at all surprised if the Morocco operations are sold this year. Once gas volumes and flow rates have been established, there will be a huge amount of industry interest, since there are very few large scale gas opportunities available, especially with such a high profit margin in a stable and tax-friendly jurisdiction with direct access to the European market.

Ignore the share price, it is industry valuation that will set the final value return for shareholders.

@Bob, LIH - £3 is for production from MOU-1,2,3 & 4 only. GRH's enigmatic 'Swan Lake' tweet was implying that we will shortly be able to afford to wipe our bums on swans' necks.

Since we have at least 40 hours to wait before we find out if we have a damp squib or a 50 megaton bomb, it might be of interest to read this article in the FT and do some sums:

https://www.ft.com/content/d30040ec-e9dc-4845-8fd2-27c5f903204f

Since not everyone has FT access, I will summarise the juicy bits. Private (PE-backed) gas producer Neptune Energy has been bought by Italian O&G major Eni for $4.9 Bn. Neptune produces mostly from the UK, Norway, Netherlands & Algeria. I hope I am not breaching copyright by quoting a couple of tasty morsels - after all I am promoting FT subscription for them by encouraging you to read the full article.

"Eni expects demand for natural gas, which has lower carbon emissions than oil, to continue to grow as countries use more of the fuel as part of the transition to renewable energy. Eni wants 60 per cent of its group-wide production to be gas by 2030."

"Eni’s chief executive Claudio Descalzi told the Financial Times that Neptune’s portfolio of gasfields, many of them close to European markets or with access to them, were an “exceptional fit”.

Now the sums. The article quoted 135,000 boe/d = 710 mmcfg/d, or a little less than 3x Paul's stated objective for Guercif CNG + G2P + some G2EU. $4.9 Bn = £3.8 Bn, divide by 3 (equivalent gas production), divide by 426M (PRD shares in issue) = £3 per share.

Poor trolls, missing out on all that upside. The rest of you - enjoy your weekend.

@JH - Why are you asking us if you already know the answer? On 21st June you said "I'm a little more clued up than most on here when reading the market dynamics" and "Imho a positive MOU3 result is pretty much being priced in. Expecting a S hit load of selling on news".

.

OK, I'm wrong - the EGM is the 27th JULY not June. I phoned them this morning to ask what was going on and why nothing was mentioned about the contract in the talk this week. They couldn't comment on contractual matters, but I was told that formal shareholder approval was needed next week for the share issue. From that comment I assumed that the EGM is next week, but that is obviously not correct. So 2+2=0 in this case

Anyone here an actual shareholder? Craig McNab is the company secretary, +61 8 9481 0389. Good luck in getting anyone to answer.

Drilling contracts will be signed on Tuesday 27th June. How do I know that? NHE have a General Meeting that day at 11.00 am Brisbane time, 2.00am UK time, to approve the 1st tranche of placement shares. Since they have already subscribed for shares, this will undoubtedly be approved by shareholders, thus giving legal clearance to use the money already raised. Without that legal clearance, NHE cannot sign a contract agreeing to pay a third party with those funds. So expect HE1 RNS either Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

Put it on the other board ...

I suspect that the interim RNS was released not for us, but to 'encourage' potential offtakers to hurry up and make up their minds - dangling the possibility of all the gas from multiple stacked overpressured reservoirs going to one of their competitors might crystallise the decision-making.

Chairman Ian Stalker has 10.9 million shares and 6 million options in Helium One. Look him up on Linkedin & elsewhere. I would imagine he knows more about resources investing than everybody on this bulletin board put together. The Tai-3 drill pad and ancillary works are almost complete. My conclusion is that HE1 will drill this year. I don't give a toss what other peoples' conclusions are, it's not their money I have invested.

Just answered that on Telegram - A little under $100K per day, so they're still well within budget. My best guess is wirelining will be finished tomorrow, and the rig will be back on standby - free of charge until MOU-4 is ready to rip. Text of RNS will need to be formulated with ONHYM and run past FDC, so still guessing Monday or Tuesday.

Talking of market dynamics, did anyone notice that yesterday PRD hit an all-time high - in market capitalisation? £46.5M, previous was £45.4M back on April 4th 2021 on mobilisation of drill for MOU-1.

People here claiming to be making lots of money with their 'reading the market dynamics' reminds me of a true story about Kerry Packer. He was in the Mirage Resort one day playing blackjack for small money, when a loud Texan walked in with a couple of semi-clad women on each arm, and said "Hey losers, this is what you get when you're worth $100 million". Kerry looked him up and down, pulled a coin out of his pocket and slapped it down on the table. "$100 million, eh? Flip you for it".

That's another source of gas - station épuration = sewage works.

@JH. Clearly in your case, RSI is repetitive strain injury. Not a clue.

In light of the recent share price rise, a few people have suggested possible target prices. The Fox-Davies report was issued three weeks ago, and I went through the various riskings they had applied, and suggested we tick them off through the month to see the effect on the theoretical share price as the company's projects became progressively derisked. The hints dropped in the Morocco news video have suggested to me that some of that derisking may come earlier than expected.

FDC is a reputable outfit, and Lionel Therond is a respected analyst, so I am using his numbers. Some (including me) have good reason to believe those numbers are on the conservative side, but unlike the other forecasts on here the last week, they are relatively independent.

LT suggested a sp target of 15p after 3 months, 25p after 12 months – but importantly these were risked valuations.

Let's suppose that we hear two important things this month: MOU-3 results confirm both the MOU-Fan and the Middle Sands P50 forecasts, and that Super Cérame or another large ceramics company is financing the CNG plant and entering into a forward gas sales agreement that pays for MOU-4 drilling & testing.

FDC's risked values per share were (all NAV12.5 - what they are worth today after reducing cash flow by 12.5% per annum compounded):

121 BCF of MOU-Fan needed for CNG – 17.5p.

Remaining 174 of 295 BCF – 7.2p.

Middle Sands 320 BCF – 8.2p

Those were assuming 12 months to CNG start up, 24 months from now to reach 34MMcfd. Let's strip out the risk as stated above– the values become 57.9p, 42.9p & 97.2p respectively, giving a total share price of £1.98p – and those are actual FDC figures, not mine. I think they are still conservative. Why?

* This is for MOU-Fan and Middle Sands CPR P50 numbers, we have discussed previously why the actual numbers may be higher.

* FDC are using $11/mcf CNG, $9/mcf for G2P, Paul says $16/mcf for CNG.

* FDC assume PRD is paying CNG capital costs, not an end-user.

* Earlier start = earlier cash flow

Finally, FDC look at some other O & G companies to suggest a comparative valuation based on EV/resource. This does not take into account that many of those 'comparators' are in dodgy jurisdictions (eg GKP), have huge capital cost (e.g.CHAR) or high taxation regimes (e.g. JOG).

Oh, did I mention that we are drilling MOU4 next month? Or Ireland? Or T & T? Not included in the above!

I have reported multiple posts by this person for being abusive and defamatory, suggest others do the same.