Member Info for KeithOz

"Worry is a subtle, pernicious creature. It creeps into our minds and adapts so that we hardly notice its presence. Meanwhile it corrodes our self-belief and corrupts our hopes. Wisdom, although similarly discreet, has a very different effect. Sometimes, we confuse it with worry; we might think that a justified misgiving is an unsubstantiated fear. Yet real wisdom is fearless".

Oscar Cainer - Astrologer. Today's horoscope.

Oh, it's still Thursday in Tunisia. Cancel that!

You won't get a phone answer on a Friday in a Muslim country - it's their equivalent to our Sunday.

I do have a suggestion as to where the comma should be inserted, but it's time for my coma.

Humour break over, back to work, guys & girls. In answer to comments below, I don't think we're likely to hit TD this weekend. Lonny's spud tweet was posted at 6 am on Saturday 3rd, from the brightness of the sun in the videos, spud was presumably the previous afternoon. Yesterday we had the early morning RNS, with the mentioned casing at 778m (roughly halfway) presumably having occurred the previous day. From Friday 3rd to Monday 12th is 9 days, so another 9 days to TD on Wednesday 21st.

However, yesterday's RNS said "The Company is drilling ahead CAUTIOUSLY in 8½" hole to evaluate six targets, in addition to the newly identified two shallow zones. A further drilling update will be given AFTER the completion of logging operations." My caps.

'Cautiously' might mean drilling a bit slower than the first half, they are concerned about further potential gas kicks. Wireline logging may be another 1-2 days. The earliest I expect the next RNS is Friday 23rd, but more likely Monday 26th.

...or my favourite headline "Sir Vivian Fuchs off to the Antarctic again"

Try "drilling ahead; on schedule and within budget". There, fixed it for you. A bit like that famous violent incident at the restaurant "panda eats; shoots & leaves"

Huh?? First line got missed out - here it is:

"The Moroccan Ministry of Energy Transition and the International Finance Corporation of the World Bank...

From Kuto on Twitter (translated from the Arabic)

Corporation of the World Bank signed an agreement to develop the natural gas roadmap, with the aim of reaching 52% of electricity production from renewable energy by 2030.

A statement by the Ministry of Energy Transition said that the agreement also aims to organize a partnership between the public and private sectors, to develop gas infrastructure in the country, as part of the state's plan towards energy transition.

The statement pointed out that natural gas plays a pivotal role in Morocco's energy transition and decarbonization strategy, as it contains less carbon and has multiple uses.

He explained that the country is seeking to strengthen the local gas infrastructure, with the aim of ensuring the security of its supplies, and linking the sources of income with the areas of consumption.

The International Finance Corporation will provide support to the Ministry through feasibility studies and structuring the issuance of gas tenders in a transparent and competitive manner, in accordance with national laws, with the aim of selecting a partner or several partners from the private sector to develop, finance and operate the infrastructure.

@Cheshirelad - I haven't changed my overall views on valuation since my post yesterday at 11.03. Yes, we will have (already have) more gas than is required for a CNG operation, Paul has made it clear that he wants to sell out to someone with deep enough pockets to develop the remaining assets. I am sure he will not sell it off cheap.

MariN - apologies :-)

Hi Mari, welcome aboard as a poster rather than a lurker! Thanks for highlighting this - I can't find an RNS relating to this, which is a little odd. However, there is this local news item today which is worth a read. I agree the implied valuation looks on the high side, for all the reasons you mention, and bodes well for PRD.

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2023/06/355935/sound-energy-secures-funding-from-calvalley-petroleum-for-tendrara-exploitation-in-morocco

I did ask for comments on my initial calculations for the shallow sands intercepted yesterday, and received some. I thought the estimate looked far too high, and it was - thanks for your comments - that's why I show assumptions! Now I have a laptop to work from rather than just a phone, 2 morning espressos, and a calmer environment (no one wanting dinner!), here are my revised assumptions and numbers. Again, if you think they're cr@p, please say so, a consensus is more valuable than just one opinion.

* Uniform thickness of 11m (it may be thicker or thinner)

* Area 6km² = 6,000,000m²

* Porosity 20% (likely to be better consolidated than MOU turbidites, so lower than the 25% assumed for them)

* 66% recoverability (imo on the low side, but this is what is assumed in the CPR & by FDC)

* 70% charge (CPR again)

* 75% attributable to PRD

* Gas expansion Factor of 86. Rule of thumb is lithostatic pressure is 1 psi for each 1ft of depth. 350m x 3.28 = 1148ft depth, plus 122psi overpressure = 1270psi. 1 Bar = 14.7psi. 1270/14.7 = 86.4 Bar.

So, 11 x 6,000,000 x 0.2 x 0.66 x 0.7 X 0.75 x 86 = 393346800 m³

1m³ = 35.3ft³ which gives 13889075508 ft³ - near enough 14 BCF. Adjust the assumptions to come up with your own numbers.

Looking forward to adding the next 6 reservoirs in MOU-3, and borrowing the IBM quantum computer for the lower half of MOU-4.

Rather odd comment from Malcy, could be perceived as negative - previously he has always been supportive of PRD & Paul. If Malcy won the lottery, would he say 'I expected to lose £5, but things have not gone totally to plan"?

"Noble Helium Limited (ASX:NHE) (“Noble Helium” or “the Company”) has

received a major vote of confidence from the Government of Tanzania with the

renewal of six exploration permits at its North Rukwa Helium Project by the

Tanzanian Mining Commission."

"The Company remains on track to drill its first two wells at its North Rukwa Project in Tanzania in Q3

2023. "

The news is getting out:

"Predator Oil and Gas soars on unexpected drill results"

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1017686/predator-oil-and-gas-soars-on-unexpected-drill-results-1017686.html

Someone wake up Malcy.

@165721 - wirelines will be completed directly after finishing drilling, probably early next week. They will then decide which zones in MOU-1 & MOU-3 are the most cost-effective for perforation & testing, so flow test results likely the following week.

CUBE on twitter:

High-pressured gas at Guercif MOU3 well, as expected.

The whole basin is a kitchen.

Oil too, no doubt in the carbonates. 🛢 MOU4/NE

Congratulations to #PRD Paul Griffiths, Lonny Baumgardner and team.

Hold for the logs.

@Cheshirelad. I can't answer that question definitively, since a crucial unknown is what are you going to do with all the gas? I can refer you to fig. 17 of the Fox-Davies report, where they have made assumptions about available volumes of gas, and what it would be used for. In order of profitability, it would be gas-to-industry (CNG project), which requires relatively low volumes but at a high margin, through gas-to-power, then highest volume/lowest margin is gas-to-Europe. PRD are only prepared to do CNG - G2P & G2E require large capital expenditure & management resource, so the intention is to sell them off.

FDC have calculated that the CNG project only requires 121 BCF, and they have assigned an unrisked (i.e. it goes ahead successfully) net present value of 57.9p per share - the NPV is what it is worth today after taking into account the cost of money, not what it could be worth some years into the future. Clearly there is a lot of gas left over for a purchaser who wants to pursue the G2P & G2E options. They will want to purchase at a substantial discount to NPV, since they will be bearing the development risk, and they also wish to make a profit on the deal. Having said that, the unrisked NPVs assigned by FDC are 60p per share for the leftover Contingent Resources not used by CNG, and £1.36 for the Middle Sands (319BCF) which we haven't reached yet. From today's news it would seem that the gas volumes they have assumed as the P50 (most likely) case are on the low side. Whatever numbers you pick, it should clearly be worth a lot more than 8p per share.

This is of course just the gas found by MOU-1 & MOU-3. Titanosaurus will be drilled in the next few weeks and its CPR released, the political stalemate in Ireland may be ended by the upcoming release of the Energy Security Review, and the Cory Moruga deal in T & T will hopefully close.

I wonder if Nigel was on the bus? Such a shame if he missed out after all those derogatory posts.