Member Info for KeithOz

@Jimmy. May I chime in from a slightly different perspective - less technical, more commercial? I had also assumed that with the availability of cheaper testing capability they would test as many individual reservoir beds as possible - this would not only give the largest and most accurate figures for calculating a Reserve, but also provide useful information concerning reservoir connectivity.

Paul said "but what would we do with all that gas?" That suggests that he is very confident that flow rates will provide enough gas to meet current market needs, and that they have returned to the plan that the MOU-Fan/CNG business is to be retained rather than sold. If you were going to sell, you would want maximum Reserves in order to get the highest price, if you were going to keep the business yourself, you just need to be sure you have enough to meet market requirements - so I completely agree with your last paragraph.

I am not sure that a fear of compartmentalisation is the reason for multiple production wells - in fact Paul seemed confident about lateral reservoir continuity. SDX had to terminate the supply to their largest customer because of well problems, and did not have adequate back up production supply to compensate. Gas contracts to Moroccan industry appear to have not only take or pay clauses (to ensure steady income for the supplier) but also supply or pay clauses (to compensate the industrial user should their gas supply fail). PRD want to ensure that they are able to meet any contractual obligations, so a minimum of two production wells are required, preferably three if they are dealing with large contractual quantities, or multiple customers.

My conclusion is that they are now decided on a strategy of getting the CNG business up and running asap, then using the cash flow to invest in just enough exploration to optimise the sale of the rest of the Moroccan assets.

@Jimmy. TAF-1X was drilled by Phillips in 1979, no detailed data appears to be publicly available. All I have seen is a reference to 18m of dolomitic carbonate reservoir exhibiting leached porosity development - but no actual poroperm figures. (Paul has said MOU-NE, sorry, Titanosaurus, is oolitic, not dolomitic). I guess that since they were looking for oil (there are extensive seeps in the area) and didn't find any, detailed logs may not have been kept. A very old ONHYM presentation refers to Guercif basin Jurassic carbonates and sandstones having porosities of 6 - 20%, i.e. poor - good, but presumably this is outcrop rather than drill core data.

Has anyone else here seen more detailed info?

Remove the e and th from my name, and add an f. But you knew that :-)

@BRV - honest answer is I don't know, but you are quite correct that the deeper structures could be oil and the upper closures contain gas. What the proportions are is anyone's guess. 250km of 2D seismic was run in early 2022, much of it over what was then MOU-NE, and we were told that interpretation of this was complete by May 2022, enabling selection of well locations. This and other data will have guided the CPR, which should be a very interesting read, but as previously discussed, PRD are likely wanting to release all the price-sensitive info during a short timeframe in order to minimise hostile corporate activity.

With regard to the new name, I assumed that it was decided not after a few beers, but perhaps after excessive intake of another product that Morocco is famous for (not olives).

@Dai. The loyalty options cost 1¢ in October 2022. To convert them to a share, it is necessary also to pay the option fee. So the cost is not 1¢ for a share, but 23.5¢ or 26¢. The share price on Friday was 13.5¢. If you intend to convert your option to a share, then sell it for a 10¢ or 12.5¢ loss, then I have a very nice bridge you might like to buy.

@Kevin. The ASX is a lot easier venue to raise cash for resources companies than is the LSE. However, if NHE backtracked on the farmout and went for a placing, they would get slaughtered at the current price. IMHO they made a serious mistake in announcing an unidentified 'preferred partner'. They should have progressed parallel negotiations to a stage at which they were able to finalise a real contract. They currently look silly - the ideal partner should have experience and expertise in gas exploration and production, as well as a willingness and ability to fund future activities - at the moment they know none of these issues. The best bet if the current partner turns out to be just a fishing exercise, is to re-open negotiations with another interested party - but this puts them at a disadvantage and exposes them to a poor deal outcome. I repeat that HE1 needs to be ready to pull the ripcord on a go-it-alone arrangement, I just hope that Sofori are prepared to do a one-well deal.

What used to be known as MOU-NE was originally thought to be an oil prospect, then changed to gas, back to oil, and then very recently renamed the Titanosaurus prospect, with the Grifforaptor & Lonnydactyl deciding that it is actually gas. Since it appears that the relevant CPR will be issued as close as possible to the MOU-1 & -3 testing results, we will have to wait for an official explanation.

Let's review the history. The 13 Jan 22 RNS told us "Multiple deeper Jurassic oil and gas prospective leads have been identified for future evaluation and drilling. The location for one of these features, "MOU-NE", is included in the Company's Environmental Impact Assessment for its currently scheduled drilling programme for the MOU-4 Appraisal Project. MOU-NE lies updip from an abundant micro-seepage with an oil signature identified by a Geo-Microbial Technologies micro-seepage survey in 2006 and 2007"

RNS 17 May 22: "The MOU-NE drilling lead has now been mapped at the base of the forecast reservoir sequence with a structural closure covering 102 km². The next step is to finalise a drilling location based on defining the highest point on the structure with the maximum potential for leached reservoir development (18 metres of reservoir were encountered approximately 2,200 metres downdip in well TRF-1 about 15 kms. to the southeast of the MOU-NE structure beneath a zone of gas shows. MOU-NE well will be targeting a gross reservoir sequence of approximately 200 metres within which the potential for good quality reservoir is increased due to its structurally elevated position relative to TRF-1. MOU-NE is adjacent to the gas-generating basin defined by the MOU-1 well results."

RNS 17 Mar 22: "Dry gas shows were encountered in TFR-1X at the top of this interval. MOU-NE will potentially test the play concept some 1500+ metres higher than the TFR-1X structure in an area favourably located for gas charge from the MOU-1 Tertiary basin."

In later presentations it was verbally referred to as likely to be oil, presumably since such structures worldwide are often oil-bearing. Last week we were told it is back to gas, with reference to a similar structure drilled by Galp. There may be an additional pointer. In the 15 Dec 21 RNS we were told of a gas cloud/chimney to the east of the MOU-Fan, detected on seismic line GR-84-06. At the IMC presentation I asked if the presence of a thick seal over MOU-2 indicated that the gas cloud was caused by a fill-to-spill situation rather than a top leak, and Paul agreed this was likely - a very positive factor.

Looking at the map in the latest presentation, it is clear that the western edge of Titanosaurus underlies the MOU-Fan, so MOU-4 can penetrate both formations.

About a year ago on here, there was debate as to whether the gas cloud originated from two potential reservoirs. I think it does - from both MOU-Fan & Titanosaurus. If (big if) this is correct, IMHO this is a highly positive indicator.

I started a new thread on this, because comments have appeared under a number of different headings. The poster who started, and continued this discussion, is either completely ignorant of anything to do with energy markets, or is deliberately trying to stir up FUD about PRD's Morocco strategy. Let's knock this on the head.

There seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding over the term 'energy'. Electricity is just one component of the energy market - in the UK, which most acknowledge as a developed market, electricity accounts for 19% of energy needs, oil 39% and gas 35%. The UK has an extensive and sophisticated electricity grid and gas pipeline network. Morocco has neither. It is a big country, and the cost of developing infrastructure capable of distributing the nation's energy needs is beyond its means for many decades. Thus, the country is highly dependent upon hydrocarbons, most currently imported. There is no in-country operating refinery, so all fuel oils are imported at high cost. SDX produces a few small f@rts of natural gas, Algeria has cut off supply, so the vast majority now comes from Spain, again, at high cost.

Many local industries are dependent upon natural gas - raw phosphates need gas to be converted to fertiliser, and most industries have either gas or diesel power equipment. Replacing this with electric equipment will either be prohibitively expensive, or in many cases simply not be possible because of the processes involved.

PRD management are well aware of all this, indeed Lonny has probably more experience than anyone on the planet (apart of course than the original poster) of the Moroccan gas market. For the next few years, bulk CNG delivered by road will not only be a viable market, but in many cases the only route to market for gas, and will also in some situations be able to replace expensive diesel. The MOU-Fan will be able to supply this market reliably with 3-4 wells, for at least 10 years, even at higher than predicted growth rates. The bigger (but less profitable) gas to power market will require a lot more development of Guercif resources, and PRD management have clearly indicated they will leave that to a future purchaser. G2P will almost certainly utilise the Trans Maghreb Pipeline, and volumes will be sufficient to justify its use - Sound Energy and possibly Chariot also intend to supply their gas this way.

PV and wind power is indeed an option for Morocco - I have worked in the south west of the country, and during the day you can hardly stand up in the wind, and get heat stroke even faster than you do here in the northern part of Australia. But at night there is of course no sun, and the wind (caused by hot air rising over the desert and pulling cooler air onshore) drops away completely - so forget running your industrial plants, refrigerators, air conditioning or lighting 24/7. I understand the only PV plants being planned for Morocco are for green hydrogen.

@Dai - all the NHE options are well underwater. No one in their right mind is going to pay 22.5¢ or 25¢ to convert their option to a share they can currently buy on the market at 13.5¢, and maybe in single figures next week.

@Fordy - So Paul does read the posts here? OK Paul, next time you need to do a discounted raise, don't hand it over to those slippery b*ms at Novum, offer it to your faithful shareholders here - we won't charge you a fee, and we won't sell on for a 5% profit the next day. When I say, 'we', there are one or two folks who should be excluded - but you must know who they are :-)

@dobbyy - I agree with @gogs that this is something a little more serious. The NHE share price was moving up nicely until it was admitted that they have no idea whom the "chosen partner" is, since then it has declined relentlessly despite lots of feelgood tweets. I have direct access to the market book - at the close of play this evening there were 902K shares being offered for sale (unsold), while offers to buy were for only 670K shares. Over half the offers to buy were at less than the all-time low, some of the offers were at just 9¢, which is 50% below the all-time low. On this basis I would expect the decline to continue next week in the absence of some really good news, hence my comment earlier that hopefully HE1 is ready to go it alone.

Thank you to all of the attendees for providing your varying insights. The coiled tubing stuck in customs will be for cleaning up the MOU-1 bore prior to testing, maybe some folks here should take note that there can be real and genuine reasons for delays, not just someone allegedly putting off testing because they are not confidant of obtaining good results. Maybe Tunisian customs think it is for distillation of alcohol?

I've looked through the earthquake data for the last 50 years - the southern end of Lake Rukwa is relatively stable. Most of the EARS seismic activity is occurring under and around Lakes Malawi & Tanganyika.

https://earthquaketrack.com/tz-09-mbeya/recent

Of more concern is the 34% decline in NHE share price over the last fortnight, after the announcement that the fairytale wedding was actually a blind date, it still being unknown if the potential suitor is a catfish; just after a one-night stand; or really is long-term relationship material, and has something constructive to offer other than just a fat wallet. I am hoping that the strictly business relationship of Lorna & Ian is a whole level above such tawdry desperate dating, and that HE1 is ready to go it alone if NHE ends up with just a broken heart.

Ah, that explains it, @antivenom is reading a different one to the rest of us.

Here's a teaser for you - on p.5 there are two photos taken inside the Guercif warehouse - boxes containing well heads, and pallets of sacks of drilling mud - but TWO different types, which I think are:

1). Purebore which worked very well for the top section of MOU-2, and presumably will also be used in MOU-3.

2). Ultradrill, as used in MOU-1, and now recommended by the Aberdeen lab as being the solution to MOU-2 sticky zone -is it left over from MOU-1, or has it been recently bought in to complete MOU-2?

Date is given in 4th paragraph.

A question for tonight please - p.6 of the presentation, left-hand chart. Why no increase in Prospective + Contingent resources until Q3 2024 if in addition to further MOU-Fan appraisal, PRD are in July this year drilling the Jurassic MOU-NE, now re-named the Titanosaurus Prospect (lmaorofl)?

Since I don't fancy a 33,000+km round trip, I won't be attending tonight. I'm sure several of you who are attending will be commenting here, but if anyone is also going to sit in on the EOG & CEG presentations, it would be very useful to post here any info that is of relevance to PRD - it often takes a few days for a video of the event to appear online. Thanks in advance - K

This is not from Keith, but his daughter - he is trying to say hello to you, but it's in a high squeaky voice - no idea what could be wrong with him - he's also joined his index finger to his thumb to make a circle, and is waving his hand up and down - maybe you know what that means? Maybe it has to do with the drill you are talking about? Hope everyone is feeling better soon.

Hi Taff, didn't mean to confuse you. The second sentence of the RNS reads "We look forward to the respected research coverage by Fox-Davies Capital as we enter into the development phase of our gas assets in the Guercif Licence, onshore Morocco." My comment was "My reading (i.e. - my interpretation) of the second sentence, which is an unusual inclusion in a broker appointment notice, is that around the end of June, F-D will produce a report encompassing MOU-1 & -3 testing results, and the MOU-NE & Cory Moruga CPRs. If a capital raise is necessary (i.e., not from forward gas sales, etc.), it will be based on that report." Hope that clarifies things :-) - K

My reading of the second sentence, which is an unusual inclusion in a broker appointment notice, is that around the end of June, F-D will produce a report encompassing MOU-1 & -3 testing results, and the MOU-NE & Cory Moruga CPRs. If a capital raise is necessary (i.e., not from forward gas sales, etc.), it will be based on that report.