Member Info for KeithOz

...should have included this quote from President Hassan on Tuesday;
“We have been engaging with investors to formulate joint ventures, and this system is beneficial because apart from the 16 percent statutory shareholding we get new tax revenues, employment opportunities, infrastructure, technology transfer, expertise, and community support."

I agree with @Legalwolf that Noble's behaviour strongly suggests that an acceptable offer is already on the table, but it is legally necessary to complete the formal procedures. It is also pretty obvious that HE1 are in the loop. I expect a farm in announcement within a couple of weeks of the formal closing date, closely followed by the rig contract for both companies.

There is a simple way around the concern that Tanzanian regulatory approval could take months. Noble is an Australian based holding company with 100% ownership of three registered business entities in Tanzania, two of which are the actual licence holders:
Rocket Tanzania ltd - Rukwa & North Nyasa
Antares Tanzania ltd. - Eyasi & Manyara
and Cephei Tanzania ltd.
A farminee will buy a minority stake in one or all of these subsidiaries. This does not require government approval.

Quite why Aminex keeps getting dragged up as an example is beyond me - totally different scenario. President Samia Suluhu Hassan is strongly pro-business, and recognises that resource exploitation will power her country for the next few decades. She mentioned the potential of helium in her inaugural speech, which was broadcast nationwide. On Tuesday she turned up in person for the signing of agreements with three Australian companies - Evolution Energy Minerals, Eco Graf Ltd and Peak Rare Earths, and stated : “I’m glad that even before 2025, the (resources) sector’s contribution is nearing the ten percent target. Taking into consideration the ongoing investments and government efforts, I’m sure we will surpass that target.”

It is quite clear that after a couple of difficult decades, the United Republic of Tanzania is now fully open for business.

That chart tells me one very obvious thing - that the share price is event driven, and that forecasting based on solely on the chart is a total waste of time. Doubtless someone will respond with some nonsense about Fibonacci ratios.

If Bluejay are to make best use of the limited Greenland field season, they will need to start activities for Disko & Kangerluarsuk in mid-June, which in turn means they need to start mobilising equipment and materials to the field base in mid-May, which is only three weeks away. Not surprising that some are getting twitchy that there has not yet been an RNS to give details of the 2023 campaigns.

The fact that we have no information on activities for both D-N & KLS suggests strongly to me that there will be combined activity, as I speculated last week. Both projects are fully financed, both are drill-ready, the only reasons for delay are either sorting out the logistical complexities, or finalising local permitting. JAY are managing the field work logistics for both projects – and (this may be a surprise to some!) they are actually very good at this.

There can be no chance that either Bluejay or KoBold are having second thoughts – have a look through the technical presentation on KLS:
http://bluejaymining.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Kangerluarsuk-Slides-Final-Feb-2023.pdf

and note the comments on D-N on the JAY website:
“the Kugg Project, on the southern peninsula, where surface sampling confirmed a working sulphide system with initial chemical assays in oxidised surface material returning 2.02% nickel, 0.8% copper and 0.2% cobalt. Handheld XRF sampling on fresh, polished material returned values averaging between 4.6%-9.3% nickel & 1.5-2.8% copper, and samples taken from outcrops show characteristics indicative of large-scale Ni-Cu-Co-PGE sulphide segregation.” and:
“Grab samples from the historical Igdlukunguaq Gossan assayed 1.9% Cu, 3.3% Ni, and 1.1% Cu, 2.8% Ni, confirming the previously identified existence of a massive sulphide system” and:
the famous 28 tons Igdlukunguak massive-sulphide boulder which assayed 6.9% Ni, 3.7% Cu, 0.6% Co and 2g/t PGM. At today's metals prices that is worth a staggering $7000 per m³. (calculations on request!).
Furthermore, there is very good reason Anglo-American have staked 10,000 km² of surrounding land.

Putting in a 1000m+ DD drill in Greenland may cost up to $500k, so you need to be very sure where you are drilling. Once core is retrieved, it could take several months to get an accurate idea of what is there – copper ores are pretty easy to spot with a hand lens, pentlandite (nickel) is also, but has variable Ni content. 2 g/t finely disseminated PGMs are impossible to determine other than by fire assay. Hand-held XRF's are notoriously unreliable, so you must await lab assay results. For this reason, you do not do all your drilling in one season – you do enough to validate your geophysical & geochemical data, then do follow-up appraisal the next year. This is why I am confident we will see drilling at D-N this year.

I am still relaxed, but will start to worry if no RNS in the next 3 weeks!

Not only CEG, but also EOG - who of course also hold a licence adjacent to Corrib. Perhaps not just the plot, but also the gravy that thickens - no, that would be for the Sunday Roast :-)

"It's much harder for Australian companies to raise money" Absolute rubbish. Have you even the faintest idea of how many resource companies are ASX-listed? and how much money is raised each year? You have been spreading ill-informed nonsense and outright lies on the PANR board, don't start here.

The peak of 680 GWh per month = 2.3BCF per month.

I first bought JAY shares about 6 years ago, my interest was solely the potential for Disko-Nuusuaq. I thought that Dundas would be sold on, and ascribed little near-term value to the Finnish brownfield sites. After years of management incompetence and/or mendacity, I gave up and sold out to invest in more compelling opportunities, but kept a close watch for progress. At the moment the market appears to think that JAY is a dead duck – not so much a case of flying under the radar, but crashed and burned in full view. Two weeks ago I bought back in bulk, this is why.

* There has been a long-overdue management change at the top.
* The share price hit and started to climb back above the CLN Floor Price.
* Maiden drill programmes are fully-funded at both D-N & Kangerluarsuk.
* I believe that a detailed announcement covering both D-N & KLS will be made before the end of this month.
* Some large share purchases were made this week.

Some here are doubting that a D-N programme will go ahead at all - I think this is an unmissable opportunity - my views are based on having a geology degree, worked as an exploration geologist, and then moving across into business development for a major player. D-N is quite simply currently one of the largest and best researched opportunities in the world. The quantity and comprehensiveness of geophysical & geochemical evaluation already performed is astounding for a company with a market cap of £35M. Take a look at the RNS's of 14 Oct 2019, 4 Feb 2020, 09 Aug 2021, 24 Mar 2022 & 11 Apr 2022.

I estimate that Kobold spent around $6M last year, and have a similar amount still to spend before they secure their 51%. They are now at the stage that the data needs to be verified by drilling, there is no reason to delay further. KLS is also due to be drilled this summer, full details will be released soon. The two projects are only 75km apart at the closest point - it would make logistical sense to do the two sets of drilling in parallel. Since the targets for both are now very tightly defined, it may be more efficient to use RC drilling for the first few hundred metres, then diamond drilling into the target itself in order to obtain assayable core. My guess would be initially six holes in each project this year, assay the cores and assess the petrology, mineralisation and structure, then return next year to the best targets for detailed evaluation.

JAY's costs at KLS will be unlikely to exceed $2M this year. Depending upon results at both projects, there is another $4M available from the CLN arrangements for follow-up work – it is likely that Kobold will have spent the full $15M by the end of this year, so further work on D-K will require JAY to co-fund if they are to retain their holding at 49%. A decent discovery this season at either project should give a significant boost to the share price, enabling a more conventional capital raise.

Kobold is required to do 15 drills by 2024. I would be very surprised if they waited until next year to do the lot - far more sensible to pick the prime targets to drill this year, then have 6-9 months to analyse all the data and refine drilling strategy for the following year. I expect an announcement imminently.

Don't know what went wrong with the last post - remove the '10MMcf per day' in the 3rd to last line - 5mmcfd is the correct figure that the calculations are based on. Sorry!

@Jimmy - It was my understanding (although this is going back a couple of decades) that the Morocco offshore Jurassic reefs did have good porosity & permeability, the problem was a lack of maturity - unlike in the Guercif graben, the source rocks had simply not become buried deeply enough to provide the conditions for either oil or gas windows. So simply, no oil.

Yes, looking forward to some positive flow tests from MOU-1, hopefully that will provide the guarantee of sufficient gas to enable a forward sales agreement - six months' forward sales of a very conservative 5mmcfg/day at a 25% discounted price of $12/mcf, at 10MMcf per day gives over $10M. Paul has said they intend to lease at least the first CNG plant, so there should be plenty left over to finish MOU-2, test MOU-2 & -3, as well as drill MOU-NE if the risk/reward is favourable.

@BRV - at this stage, I don't have the faintest idea of valuation of the oil potential - which is why a formal CPR for what is possibly the largest prospect is so important. If MOU-NE is formally assigned Prospective Resources that match the ONHYM figure of 366MMBoe (although I can't tell if this is the same prospect), at an in-ground value of just $1 per bbl, that would give a valuation 10x our current market cap. That's why I referred last week to potential 'shock & awe' on release of the MOU-NE CPR.

@Nico63. Had to look that one up - hope I haven't offended anyone! These oil reservoirs are in the Dogger Sands, hence the name - a dogger in geology is a roundish iron concretion usually found within a sandstone formation. Nothing to see here, move along.

Part 3.
Some caveats – the MOU-NE reef system is likely to be structurally complex, and will very probably require expensive 3D seismic. Drilling will be deeper, so will also cost more. There is no oil refinery nor oil transport infrastructure in Morocco – all these factors mean that although there is almost certainly a lot of oil in Guercif, this is a job for the big boys with deep pockets, hence Paul wishing to sell it on. Good timing, oil is back at $85 / bbl and forecast by many to be at $100 by the end of 2023, which is just about when the licences might be farmed out or sold.

Part 2.
Our friends GRH & Cube have seen hyperspectral satellite data for Guercif, and are clearly profoundly impressed by the prospectivity. Lastly, there is a strong suggestion of oil in the licence immediately to the north of PRD's. This is the Hassi-Berkane licence, currently unallocated, but previously held by Maxim Resources. They identified three oil prospects just a few km to the north of our licence boundary, known as the Top Dogger prospect – nothing to do with a well-known custodian of flatcoats. They are located on the margin of the northward extension of our very own Guercif Graben. Here is a presentation from Maxim in 2014 – on pp.12 & 14 is info suggesting that these are synsedimentary positive flower fault structures – hmm, where have we heard that before?

https://cdn.proactiveinvestors.com/upload/SponsorFile/File/2014_08/Maxim-Resourcrs---Hassi-Berkane-Presentation-July-2014.pdf

and here is a summary of the CPR for this prospect:
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MAXIM-RESOURCES-INC-1410938/news/Maxim-Resources-Completes-Initial-N-I-51-101-Report-on-Hassi-Berkane-Block-in-Morocco-19214638/

This shows a P90/P50/P10 estimate of 30/60/120 MMBbl oil. Just for a small area.

Next, take a look at p.22 of the PRD presentation of 8th September 2022:
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/09/Proactive-Presentation-Final-8-September-2022-LATEST.pdf
The top right map shows a very large Jurassic kitchen, adjacent to the MOU-NE prospect. This is believed to have had the right temperature and pressure conditions for the formation of both gas and oil.

Now look again at the Maxim presentation referenced above, at the lower map on p. 13. This shows a huge area of proposed Jurassic kitchen – note that the southwestern half is actually on the Guercif licence. This suggests a second area of kitchen to the north of MOU-NE. Clearly someone thinks there has been a lot of cooking going on!

Finally, back to MOU-NE. Carbonate reefs provide much of the world's oil. MOU-NE is not only very large, but analogous rock samples from outcrops nearby show leached porosity development. This means that circulating fluids have dissolved rock, enhancing the pre-existing porosity, thus leaving more space for oil. In this respect MOU-NE is similar to the famous Shaikan - I have linked to this before, but worth doing so again – p.12 shows what happens:
https://files.investis.com/gulfkeystone/presentations/kurdistan.pdf

Part 1.
A little over a year ago, there was a lengthy discussion here on the potential for oil on the Guercif licences. I was thinking about updating it, but to my surprise most of the posts had been removed. Seems very strange, I don't recall anything offensive. Let's see what happens to this one, I have tried to keep it as a general overview & non-technical (i.e. - understandable!)

During the Feb 1st Q & A, Paul mentioned that he was hoping to issue a comprehensive CPR including Cory Moruga & MOU-NE, but SLR were unable to undertake this, even though data was complete for both projects. In the 8th March RNS, it stated that approvals from the T & T ministry were expected by 30th May, and the Cory Moruga CPR would be ready 'well before then' – what I don't know is if we can still also expect the MOU-NE CPR at the same time. If it is imminent, what might be in it?

We know that the MOU-NE prospect is over 100km², and is Jurassic carbonate reef, and likely contains oil rather than gas. It is well known that there is oil on the licences – it was extracted commercially 99 years ago from another Jurassic carbonate reef on the opposite (north-westerly) side of the Guercif graben, part of another PRD prospect now called MOU-NW. We also know that there are extensive oil shows around the TAF-1X well, and mapped seepages in a number of other locations. Four wells were drilled between 1972 and 1986, but failed to find oil at the target depths – they did appear to find gas at shallower levels, but this was not of commercial interest at the time. Only one (TAF-1X) penetrated the correct Jurassic target, but later seismic shows it to have been drilled in the wrong position.

Considerably more seismic has been shot in the last forty years, and also the older data has been reprocessed. The seismic has been augmented with aeromagnetic and gravity surveys, and microseepage studies. As a result, ONHYM and TransAtlantic (former licence holders) have identified several different hydrocarbon systems - in addition to the shallow Neogene gas that PRD are currently drilling, they believe that sub-salt Triassic clastics, Lower Jurassic reef complexes, Middle Jurassic sandstones, and Tertiary clastics are all prospective for oil. ONHYM identified no less than 12 Jurassic and Triassic leads to the immediate east of Guercif town (all in or on the margin of the Guercif graben) which they believed to be prospective for oil. Some of them are pretty big - P50 of 366MMBoe - see Figure 12 in the 2020 SLR CPR. Many of the Triassic leads are associated with salt diapirs, and the Jurassic closures are mostly fault-dependent.

@BDT - The sedimentary sequence is formed by what are in effect underwater avalanches down the steep sides of the graben (canyon formed by rifting), so the layers are already sloping. Paul has said that part of the slumped material included what they believed to be a section of the target reservoir - part of the same sedimentary sequence, just that it has separated and slid downslope to end up on top of its continuation lower down. So the slump hasn't penetrated the lower layers, it's sitting on top of them. I put a photo on Twitter a while back of a small-scale slumped turbidite, you can see how it is quite possible to drill the same sedimentary layer twice - https://mobile.twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1626036279317237761/photo/1

@Jimmy - some good points, of course as always we will only know for certain once drilling is completed, but I agree the indications are increasingly positive. 1. Gas cloud - I asked Paul during the Feb 1 IMC presentation (at 40m.25s) if he thought the presence of such a good seal confirmed that the gas cloud indicated a fill-to-spill situation, he confirmed that was the case. 2. Water contacts - RNS 19 July 2022 "The potential for multiple gas-water contacts may exist as is the case in the Anchois discovery and appraisal wells. However at this well location there is little seismic evidence for compartmentalisation of the target reservoir section." 3. Gross reservoir - RNS 19 July 2022 again "The well has been designed to test an independent structural closure within the Moulouya Fan covering up to 11 sq. km., twice the area of the original Anchois discovery well. Vertical relief on this closure is approximately 75 metres and is sufficient to test for lowest known gas in the 110 metre gross potential reservoir interval." Subsequent to that, MOU-2 drilling has suggested excellent sand development, and the top of the reservoir appears to be deeper than expected - we may well see considerably in excess of 110m gross pay. I suspect when MOU-2 is completed, they will need to drill 50-100m deeper than originally planned to reach the base of the reservoir interval. 4. Mud seal - strongly agree the mud seal has increased the prospectivity in several respects.

Some of the link is showing here in blue, some in black - you need to copy & paste the whole lot.

1. Copy and paste the whole of this link into your browser:
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=34.32139680116137&lng=-3.3988480571861146&zoom=16&preset=1-NATURAL-COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=20&gain=1.0&gamma=1.0&time=2022-10-01%7C2023-04-08&atmFilter=&showDates=false
2. Top left, click on natural colour. This is the latest (April 8) image.
3. Repeat 1 and 2, but in a new tab.
4. In the second tab image, click on the calendar top left, click on April 3 (April 5 is misty).
5. Click back and forth between the tabs, you can see a darker strip has appeared left of centre, with a shed at the S end.
6. Zoom out one click, you can see the A2 motorway 1km to the S, and the MOU-2 site 3km to the W, at the extreme right hand side of the image.

This may be the site of MOU-A. It is in the correct position on the same seismic line as MOU-2, the correct distance from MOU-2, and is the only change in the last week. Of course, it might just be agricultural :-)

Mea culpa! Thanks, Jimmy for pointing out the error in my calculations. Some of my reference material incorrectly shows 'Best' estimate of 1.8Tcf - in this case best means highest, or P10, whereas 'best estimate' should mean most likely, or P50. P50 for the Moulouya Fan (2020 pre-drill figures) is 819Bcf.

So revised share prices, using correct terminology, are : P90 - 72p, P50 - £2.00, P10 - £4.44p. Still more than 7.5p!

I am pulling together a bit of info on oil prospectivity for Guercif, will try to post it up in the next day or two.