Member Info for KeithOz

Off-topic. @HH - I got out of PANR a while ago. They are clearly trying something interesting, which is to apply shale gas fracking techniques to poor permeability oil-bearing sandstone. The jury is still out as to whether that will work, but IF it does - and a lot of things need to be just right - there is clearly a large resource to play with. I would like to see the SLB data in more detail before venturing back in - if at all.

@Spritefan - OK, then. Here's another one!

Graham has mentioned the Leviathan 20 BCF field on a number of occasions, and suggested parallels with the Guercif graben. Here's a background article (which will be published next week!) updating what is known of this system, it's a bit on the technical side, as you would expect, but perhaps a couple of brief clips might ring some bells:

"Turbidite sandstones of Oligo-Miocene age ... are the most prolific gas reservoir in the Israeli offshore, of which the net sand thickness can exceed 150 m"

"Doming to the south of the Levant Basin during the Oligocene-Miocene resulted in erosion and transport of siliciclastic sediments into the basin, leading to the deposition of what are the principal gas reservoirs today. Subsequent closure of the Mediterranean Sea during the Latest Miocene led to the partial desiccation of the Levant Basin and deposition of the Messinian evaporite beds."

"Major Mesozoic faults exert direct control on Miocene faults, for example on the northern side of the Leviathan Block. Here, normal fault splays exhibit flower structure geometries that merge downwards and laterally into the North Leviathan Fault"

https://geoexpro.com/new-studies-in-the-levant-basin-offshore-israel/

Sorry to keep clogging up the board, but both Cenkos & Auctus have released reviews of CHAR this morning, following their earlier RNS. Not saying this to put CHAR down, just to point out the comparative valuations being bandied about.

CHAR's latest FEED is based on 3 wells producing total 105 mmcfd, Paul has suggested that PRD would have 3 wells producing total 150 - 250 mmcfd. I have picked up rumours that CHAR capital costs for the Anchois project will be $500 - 700M. PRD costs will be around $4m for the remaining 1 and a bit wells, plus $12M for each of 2 or 3 CNG modules. At the higher end of the PRD volume forecast, connection to the Trans Maghreb Pipeline is likely to be $5 - 10M. Anchois first gas is projected for 2025, PRD should be early 2024.

The Cenkos 1-year target market cap for CHAR? - £600M !

@Porters - Yes, since it is ONHYM in the driving seat, and they are under pressure (pun unintended) to get this done. In Morocco, things can move surprisingly quickly if a certain person wills it.

Key points, need to read both PRD & CEG releases to get all the info!
- Settlement is targeted for end-May, with an end-August long stop.
- This is conditional upon government approvals.
- $1m is payable by PRD on closing
- CPR will be finalised before closing
- The two companies are working together on CO2 EOR, including opportunities for fields owned by other companies.

So PRD has to find $1m in the next 2 months. That will come from a) the already-mentioned external investment into the EOR operation, b) forward sales of Moroccan gas or c) a raise. My guess is (a).

...and another 3 pages when I woke up this morning. Even Proactive has got it wrong - they mistakenly say that there are delays while PRD is writing to all the Ministries for approval. Completely incorrect. It is ONHYM that is driving this with the other government departments, that is a very big difference.

I am curious that so many Cassandras are ignoring some important facts:

* The details of the testing programme have now been agreed.
* That means the testing company is available and has the appropriate equipment and staff.
* ONHYM has been formally notified of the proposed programme.
* ONHYM has approved it, and has notified the government department involved in explosives use, and the Guercif regional Governor. Notified, not requested approval. Big difference.
* The remaining formality is to agree the details concerning shipment of explosives.
* As a matter of politeness, PRD will meet with Guercif local authorities to advise them what is happening - again, advise them, not requesting approval. Big difference again.

No, this is not my (mistaken?) conjecture, as some here suggest. It is the concise information spelled out in surprising detail in a legally-binding RNS.

@Blun - have you considered the possibility that you are delusional?

Explosive procedures.
You may recall that Paul stated quite clearly that they were finalising details of MOU-1 testing with two potential providers. That has obviously now concluded, and who is testing what has been agreed. It is only when that process has finished that you know how much explosive is required and what will be done with it. Once you know that, procedures can be agreed with the authorities. ONHYM are already onboard, and as the government agency responsible for coordination, they have already informed the other relevant departments - this is clearly stated in the RNS. So PRD just await formal acknowledgment from the other involved parties, who are being pushed by ONHYM, not by PRD. "A letter from ONHYM has been sent to the Ministry of the Energy Transition and Sustainable Development and to the Governor of the Guercif region TO INFORM THEM of the proposed testing operations" (my caps). Then a meeting to arrange transport dates, a politeness meeting with the Guercif mayor, and a one-day drive from Casablanca to Guercif - less than 500km, motorway all the way. Could all be done in a week, but while no-one really knows, does this really justify the near 10% drop in the share price, particularly since we were clearly told that testing would be done in March? Still over 3 weeks of March to go.

Ramadan
Of course work continues during Ramadan, but things do not always run as smoothly as at other times of the year, especially in the provinces. The last time I was in Morocco during Ramadan, we were assigned two army guys to protect us from potential problems with Polisario insurgents. While we went to work assessing the phosphates, they slept under the truck, with the instruction to wake them up if anyone suspicious came along.

O & W - if it's going to be longer than a month, they should get approval for MOU-2 explosive requirements as well, and save some money by doing the two tests back-to-back.

This is an interesting RNS from Europa Oil & Gas, presenting a study showing how low emissions will be from using indigenous gas rather than importing it. Hopefully PRD will jump on Europa's coat tails with this - it is in everybody's interest to get the Successor Authorisations approved asap .

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/EOG/irish-licence-emissions-report/15863953

...and there you are, Roxi, at least someting on MOU-1, if not MOU-2 yet. It seems that driving the probes the necessary depth into the unconsolidated sand reservoirs requires an unusually large charge in the gun. 2 weeks to the start of Ramadan - hopefully all the necessary local approvals can be obtained by then.

Hi BDT - I'd never really thought about this, so had a look at Google Earth. You are quite correct, the flat Moulouya River valley floor is very white, as are the valleys of its tributaries from the north. The only other white bit I can see is the band of mountains to the north of the valley, running NE-SW. According to the geological map, this is an outcrop of limestone, so my guess is that the valley soil is mostly from limestone that has washed down from these hills. Guercif is famous throughout Morocco for the high quality of its olives - maybe we now know what makes them grow so fat. Hopefully will be famous for another oily product soon.

Optiva were granted the 2.8p Warrants on 24th May 2018 in connection with the IPO placing. Initially these had a 3-year life, but expiry was extended until 23rd May 2023.

Optiva were granted the 4p Warrants on 14th February 2020 in relation to the placing on that date to pay off the Arato Convertible Loan Note. Expiry was 28th February 2023.

Had Optiva not exercised the 4p Warrants last week, they would have expired valueless. These account by far for the bulk of the payment. The 2.8p Warrants would also expire valueless in 2 months unless exercised. It is therefore obvious why they have exercised the Warrants now. If they sell some next week that is their business, but the suggestion here - that they have done so in order to sell the resultant shares before a crash in the share price that somehow only they know is coming - is at best a valueless conspiracy theory, at worst, deliberate trolling.

Louis10, also known as Oilman Jim, has turned up to infest this board as well as PANR. All he ever does is promote Oilman Jim's paid blog, contrary to lse rules. Oilman Jim appears to have a clear methodology of either promoting or undermining stocks to his subscribers, for his own ends, often using information which he must know to be incorrect. This week he is promoting NHE with false information. Get lost Louis/Jim.

"Anti -ashphaltene or anti-parrafinic treatments" Huh??? Since when did we start producing heavy crude oil at Guercif? Also, you need to check spelling - incorrect for both terms. Headmaster - you should give them F-

So now we're all in agreement that this is the first target to go for, all that's missing from the RNS is when do they get started?

I'm not sure we're on the right track here regarding the mud problem. Paul has said quite clearly that the gluey mess was the result of the drilling fluid interacting with high levels of Potassium in the natural clays. I thought this a little odd, since Potassium salts (particularly KCl) are routinely added to drilling fluid to counteract swelling of clay minerals. There are some suggestions that around 5% of K+ ions provides the optimum drilling fluid concentration - going above this amount can result in further clay swelling - the opposite to what is required.

The best information I can find on what to do under various circumstances similar to those being experienced at MOU-2 is in this rather long & technical paper from the Depts of Petroleum & Chemical Engineering, Curtin University Australia & Malaysia campuses.

https://espace.curtin.edu.au/bitstream/handle/20.500.11937/59302/257638.pdf;jsessionid=1E4BF169624434693AF98FD54453758A?sequence=2

I wish to make it quite clear that this is not an area of specialist knowledge for me :-)

@affc21. I must admit I don't know exactly where the MOU-2 Prospect (as opposed to the MOU-2 borehole on the MOU-Fan Prospect, very confusing) since it doesn't show up on any comprehensive map - but it does exist! On p.12 of the 28th September 2021 presentation there is a seismic slice from it, showing both Messinian and Tortonian (TGB-3 & -4) fan reservoirs with a low/best/high estimate of 148/426/944 BCF Prospective resources, so it appears to be another MOU-Fan turbidite lookalike.

In order to avoid any confusion, particularly for newer folks, may I just add that when Wacky referred to MOU-4 in his 6th August 2021 post, that has now been renamed MOU-2, the one that is currently being drilled. I am in complete agreement with his beliefs, we await testing of MOU-1 & -2 to prove up the connectivity. I will hopefully have some further data to add (currently only surmise) on the potential for the Guercif graben, once the testing work is complete.

Graham - I did put a photo of my enlarged pudding basin on Twitter a few weeks ago - https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1621711136197595138/photo/1

They were looking for oil, no interest in gas at the time.