Member Info for KeithOz

Hi Blun, welcome aboard, ignore the emotional outpourings of some here. Wireline logging was done for MOU-1 18 months ago, interpreted by Nutech, results have been released by PRD in unusual detail. On the basis of those results, Prospective Resources have been upgraded to Contingent Resources - in other words the presence of gas in potentially commercial quantities has been confirmed. What is next is flow testing, which is the quantification of the confirmed gas. That should be complete by the end of next month.

Wireline logging has only been partially completed for MOU-2, since a layer of sticky mud could potentially cause the loss of the logging tools. This issue is being addressed, and I expect that drilling will recommence by the end of next month, but this depends on being able to source a suitable non-reactive mud. Drilling to TD should only take a couple of days to complete.

PRD do not have spare cash sloshing around up to neck level, but money will no longer be a problem once MOU-1 commerciality is declared, all the talk of a rights issue or worse is from certain traders here with an agenda to lower the price. You will quickly spot who those people are. The rig does not have anywhere else to go, so no cost to keep it on site. It was in storage for a year or so prior to mobilisation to MOU-2. The only other folks drilling in Morocco are SDX, they have a different rig. Star Valley, rig owners, know there is a lot of future business with PRD, so are happy with the current arrangements.

There are plans for a third well, MOU-3, on the MOU-Fan. Some long lead time items for this have been ordered, but this well is not yet funded. As I said before, once MOU-1 commerciality is declared, cash will no longer be an issue.

Hope this answers your questions.

Nigel, just temporarily de-filtered you since Bob made an additional comment about your bizarre claims. I see you have neatly sidestepped the issue of 1/ Bob's question - how did you surmount the physical improbabilities of arresting three drunk drivers, and 2/ My question - how did you as a citizen surmount the legal difficulties as set out in the Road Traffic Act 1988, (amended March 1st 2018) Part 1, Section 6D, ss1 & 2, where it is clearly stated that only a Constable (clarified by subsequent case law : in uniform, any police rank) may arrest someone who has ss1. failed a breath test, or ss2. refuses a breath test and the Constable has reasonable suspicion that they are drunk in charge. Even as an Oxfordshire Justice of the Peace, I could not have done what you claim - nor can a lollipop patrol. Joe Public cannot just snatch people off the street at random, nor can Police Officers - there is clear written law of the procedures to be followed by Police, and if they do not follow them to the letter, the case will be thrown out of court. No Court can or would accept an arrest for a Summary Offence by a citizen, quite simply it is illegal.

I don't much like getting involved in schoolyard squabbles, but some folks here are new, and may possibly not realise the manipulation that some posters are attempting in order to promote their own selfish trading strategies. Here's a classic example:

Saturday 18.21 Redbox states "PG always has had a negative effect on the shareprice when he talks" and says he uses that as his trading strategy, and later refers in rather offensive terms that some of us are throwing money away.
Saturday 21.22 Called out for being 180° wrong by tmhsdx6, in fact the share price went up after PG interviews.
Saturday 23.21 Redbox doubles down on his position with an insult "The interviews were after you clown".

No Redbox, you are quite deliberately telling porkies in an attempt to further your trading agenda, and are getting both offensive and aggressive when called out by multiple other posters.

Facts:
Fri Jan 27 sp 4.85p
Sun Jan 29 Sunday Roast interview
Mon Jan 30 sp 5.2p
Wed Feb 01 sp 5.4p, then IMC presentation & Q&A
sp up every day to Tue Feb 07 - close @ 7.05p.

How about an apology to tmhsdx6 for being offensive? And to the rest of the board for deliberately trying to mislead them by knowingly providing false information? All in a feeble attempt to make a couple of pennies? No, I thought not, will never admit to shameful behaviour.

Latest article from Phil Kornbluth, suggesting the current helium shortage may still have a few years to run.

http://www.kornbluthheliumconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Innovation-Network-P-Kornbluth-March-2023-FINAL.pdf

I have been a subscriber to G & R for several years. Their analysis is unmatched in detail, and their conclusions have always proved to be spot on. Even better, they make their publications available to the public completely free of charge within a week or two of compilation - I guess this is a kind of advertising for their consultancy services. Despite what some would have you believe, the days of reliance upon oil & gas are far from over.

Mr Rozencwajg is an incredibly polite man. He managed to get across his main points why oil demand and price are going to increase, without once saying "stop asking me stupid questions about shooting down balloons and tech company layoffs."

Hi Jimmy, good points in your 10.29 post today about possible top seal leaks. May I answer that with some translation of the more technical bits (in brackets) so that it can be readily understood by a wider audience? It is certainly a possibility that basin inversion (later uplift of strata laid down in the Guercif graben) could cause loss of gas due to either compression or fracturing, but I don't think that has happened. May I refer you to an interesting chart in the 2022 SLR CPR:

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/01/cpr2022.pdf (for those who don't have it to hand)

On p.19, there is a chart of 2D seismic line 84-GR-06, which shows the flower fault structure quite well. It is apparent that the faulting reaches up into the Tortonian sequences (which include the current TGB-sand reservoirs). Since these are synsedimentary fault systems (occurred very soon after deposition of the sediments) they must have occurred between 11.6MA and 7.2MA (MA = millions of years before present day, this was the timeframe of Tortonion sedimentation). (This considerable thickness of sediments was laid down in the channel that then existed between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean)

The overlying Messinian sequences were laid down from 7.2MA to 5.2 MA, but these do not appear to be faulted. (Folks here a while ago may recall GRH talking about the importance of the Messinian Salinity crisis - when rising land levels - our basin inversion - shut off the Mediterranean from the Atlantic. The drying out of the isolated seawater caused the deposition of a thick layer of salt, which acts as a great seal to prevent the escape of gas).

The important thing is that the seismic chart I referred to does not show significant faulting of the Messinian strata (so the seal has not been broken). My conclusion is that gas did not start to migrate from the deep source rocks until less than 5.2MA, which was the beginning of the final basin inversion. This final inversion episode must have been quite gentle, since it has not produced widespread faulting, thus has not affected the trapping of the gas. I repeat my belief that the gas cloud to the east of MOU-2 indicates a fill-to-spill situation, rather than a leaky trap. I am confident there is more gas than you can shake a stick at.

Ben has stated on Twitter, Feb 11th "Strategy update now end of Feb".

Before agreeing and publishing strategy for the rest of the year, there are two major issues to resolve:

1. In the KCB, why was no mineralisation found? Why did the geochemistry (pathfinder mineral soil samples) not reflect what was underground, and why was the geophysics so wrong - an indicated anticline was actually a syncline, and magnetic signatures didn't have any apparent real source? Before drilling again in the KCB, they need to work out how they can be sure they are doing so in the correct place. That requires a lot of data interpretation, and a new exploration model to be formulated - that can't be done over a weekend.

2. There needs to be a review of partner interest, or lack thereof, for the KSZ. Is there a suitable offer on the table, and has it been finalised? If not, does KAV have the b@lls to drill B1 on their own, knowing that it will be make, or literally break, for the company? Should the South KSZ zones be evaluated before, after, or at the same time as the Northern section? - Again, this depends on partner interest, capabilities & financial commitment.

So, 2023 - The Year of Take Off, or Year of Crash Landing. Place your bets, ladies & gentlemen.

Should have added that synsedimentary just means taking place at the time as sediment deposition, or soon after. Oil & gas is produced much later on as a result of heat and pressure produced at depth, 'cooking' the high-carbon content sediment. Being less dense than rock or water, the hydrocarbons then migrate upwards into the traps that were formed earlier. Guercif has a faulting structure that extends down into the 'kitchen' rocks, and up to the traps, but does not reach the surface. This acts as conduits for oil & gas migration. It would appear there is one main deep fault, the Moulouya fault, which runs the length of the Guercif graben, which acts as the 'stem' of the flower faulting seen higher up.

Hence the excitement in certain quarters - there is a linked structure of deep faults extending down to the kitchen potentially supplying many smaller faults, which in turn terminate below numerous large structural traps. In theory much of the entire 750 km² Guercif graben could be gas charged.

That makes concerns about whether MOU-2 will end up costing £3M rather than the budgeted $3M (a difference of £500K) seem rather trivial.

Some of the stuff on faulting, and why people are enthusiastic about it, may seem a little arcane. In the spirit of a picture being worth a thousand words, I have posted some explanatory diagrams on Twitter:

Synsedimentary (growth) faulting -
https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1626041438688657410/photo/1

Positive flower faults -
https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1626040662977310720/photo/1

Photo of some slumped turbidite as found in MOU-2-
https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1626036279317237761/photo/1

Hope that helps.

? keyboard problem!

refus, not resuse

@Bob - That's a very interesting question. Quite apart from the physical difficulties involved, there's a legal issue. Under English & Welsh law, drink driving is a Summary Offence, not an Indictable (Arrestable) Offence. People committing an AO can be arrested by a citizen, but SO's only by an authorised Police Officer in uniform. If a citizen were to attempt an arrest for a non-AO, the police would not accept the arrest, and the arrested person could legitimately sue the arresting citizen for false imprisonment. Furthermore, an authorised Police Officer in uniform can only arrest someone for drink driving if they fail or resuse a breath test.
Sorry, I'm smearing the board with facts again, possibly spoiling someone's tall stories.

No surprise it will be early Q3 - that fits with the climate. On p.8 of the presentation it shows that Tai-C is targeting closures in both the Lake Beds & Karoo - all good, but what are Well-1 & Well-2? They are 1500m apart. Which are we doing first, and are we drilling both?

@Jimmy. There is a reasonable belief that all the wells drilled to date in the Guercif graben are connected by the same gas charged sands, this includes not only MOU-1 & GRF-1, but also MSD-1, TAF-1X and possibly KDH-1. It was whispers of a potential giant system that first brought me to PRD, shortly after they announced getting hold of the Guercif licence. I did not come to this board until July 2021 (to find out why joe market thought MOU-1 was a duster) and was pleased to discover that other people also thought there was something much larger lurking in the background. Wacky summarised this belief on Reddit about 18 months ago, his post there includes embedded links to some valuable source data:

https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/tm3dde/2021aug14_wacky_tgb_3_4_sands/

It is not yet known if the shallow fault systems act as lateral seals (the deeper fault systems are postulated as conduits), but whether compartmentalised or not, there would appear to be potential for a gas charged system far larger in extent than the MOU-Fan. I suspect it is this potential, and how MOU-1 testing could help determine it, that Graham is discussing this week.

That there is active interest in these 'old' wells (which were looking for oil, gas was of no commercial interest at the time), is evidenced by ONHYM re-naming them to align with the existing seismic grid nomenclature - GRF-1 is now DGR1, MSD-1 is now DGR3, and TAF-1X is now TGR1

The MOU-1 results will give us the first idea of just how large this rather complex jigsaw puzzle could be.

@capitalidea - hope that's the right interpretation. My long-deceased Latin master, when asked if he thought that Latin could be used as a modern universal language, replied "There's as much chance of that as getting ink from a bee's knee".

JAY has some very interesting projects, but previous management was so godawful that I gave up and sold out, at a substantial loss. I was hoping that the new management would shake things up, and I was waiting to buy back in. Today's announcements have made that unlikely. What have we found out today?

* Dundas work to date is being binned, with a revamped feasibility study now planned to be finished by the middle of next year - if they keep to timetables, which has never happened before.
* There are no concrete plans for exploration work, let alone drilling, for Disko, despite the work season commencing in two months' time. Without a plan, just how do they expect the logistics to work for such a difficult location in such a short timeframe?
* Some good news - Kangerluarsuk is finally to get first drilling this year - but at unknown cost.
* That has to win first prize for the most complicated placing of the year - the price can be at just about anything, or maybe nothing at all.
* Nothing new for all the rest of the projects.

My overall first impression - this company is still uninvestable. I would be interested to see if others have a different point of view.

@Blubay. re your comment at 11.41 - I suggest you read the CPR, substantial detail is given on moving to production.

Some misunderstanding seems to have crept in regarding the change in focus of MOU-1 testing. I will not comment on whether this misunderstanding is deliberate or not. Before MOU-2 was drilled, the proposed MOU-1 programme had quite recently been enlarged to include testing of the thin gas shows at relatively shallow levels. This had been decided in order to maximise data on reservoir connectivity - the assumption being that these shallow reservoirs would be charged across the MOU-Fan. It was not expected that these thin shallow shows would produce much increase in total gas flow, and that was not the reason for testing them.

The highly effective seal found in MOU-2 has prevented vertical gas migration to these potential reservoir sand beds, which is why there is no shallow gas on the striplog. Therefore, there is no point in expending time and money examining connectivity of these zones, now we know there is none. Instead, as already quoted, the RNS states quite clearly:

"As a result of this the MOU-1 perforating and testing programme will be MORE FOCUSSED AND EXTENSIVE IN THE PRINCIPAL ZONE OF INTEREST to determine potential connectivity with the seismically defined area of the Moulouya Fan between MOU-1 and MOU-2 THAT IS INTERPRETED AS POTENTIALLY GAS BEARING." My caps - sorry to shout, but sometimes it seems to be necessary :-)

Happy Valentine's Day, let's hope no one encounters additional drilling problems.

@Coco - I don't normally comment on share price or trading, since I'm not interested in what I think of as short-term noise, but current conditions do seem unusually tight. Since I am outside the UK, I don't use the normal broker/market maker structure, but have direct market access. A buy order I placed on Friday took several hours to fill, and I had to split it just to get it picked up. I normally manage to deal well inside the spread, but not this time. I am surprised that the price has remained flat under these conditions. If a rig contract is announced in the next few days, it is going to be a real scramble to get hold of shares in any quantity.