Member Info for KeithOz

@Jimmy - I think it's two! Upper target appears to be a Messinian turbidite, designated Ma-1 sands, lower one is TGB3/4 sands, part of the Tortonian Moulouya fan already targeted by MOU-1 & -2, but separated from the MOU-2 target by a synsedimentary fault. Caterham is our expert on turbidites, maybe he is able to offer more detail.

Just to put the record straight, so that folks' calculations are the right order of magnitude - a figure of 5.26 thousand cubic feet of gas is generally accepted as equivalent to one barrel of oil. In the confusing terminology of O & G, this is written: 1boe = 5.26mcf.

@affc21 - I'm afraid ms on the seismic charts means milliseconds two-way time (TWT) - the time taken for the seismic impulse to go down from the emitter and bounce back up from the reflector stratum to the receiver. TWT can be converted to linear depth if you know the density of the rocks - the denser the rock, the faster the transmission time - a good rule of thumb is if you hit the rock with a hammer and it rings, it's dense - if it thuds, it's not dense!

I'm away for the weekend, I will follow up on this for you next week.

Was it Mohammed VI? He's on Twitter, but he doesn't appear to be following Graham yet :-(
https://twitter.com/SM_Mohammed_VI French

https://twitter.com/m_royalfamily?lang=en English & Arabic

@MJ. Correct, gas prices in Morocco have fallen. In July 2022 they were $30 / mmcf. The figure for February was $19 - BULK delivered by pipeline, so Paul's target of $16 for just a truckload looks pretty competitive. You might like to have a look through this article, which is mostly about CHAR, but gives some market perspective:
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/ci/research-analysis/moroccos-anchois-discovery.html
It suggests the market view is that "gas prices in Europe to remain high for the next 5-6 years, and an expected USD 10/Mscf thereafter,"

@Aimster - I can't help noticing that every one of your posts is attempting to undermine positive information provided by others, but on this occasion, I will respond rather than ignore - I have a few minutes waiting for the bathroom to become vacant before I go to bed.

According to the HUR RNS of 11th January 2023, price achieved in 2022 averaged $97 / bbl, and in 2021, $67/bbl. As you know, 1 bbl is equivalent to 5260 cu ft gas. Morocco is currently buying bulk gas, mostly for power stations, from Spain at $19 per mmcf, PRD are planning to sell CNG in smaller quantities to industry at $16 per mmcf .

5.26 x 16 = $84. So HUR and PRD equivalent prices are pretty much the same. However, HUR costs are a multiple of PRD's, so PRD are likely making 5x as much per boe as HUR.

There's my numbers, as requested. Perhaps you would like to offer the board your calculations.

My French must be in rapid decline, I don't see any reference to Guercif. However, this article highlights a key point, that Predator is not going to shout very loud until resources are actually proven, and possibly only when producing. Interesting that Europa went against ONHYM's wishes in making their announcement on Inezgane last year - they have now relinquished the licence - I wonder what the back story is on this. btw, if the King's advisors are reading this, please tell him when he comes to Guercif it would be inadvisable to wear a white suit, particularly if he is inspecting an oil well.

Hurricane Energy received 5 firm purchase offers, following negotiations with 12 serious parties. Prax is now the agreed purchaser, with an upfront of £83M, with a further £166M contingent upon future production, giving a potential deal total value of £249M, which is 10x PRD's current market cap. HUR is currently producing 7700 bopd, equivalent to 40.5MMcfgd, a figure that is in decline. It also has well-publicised reservoir problems, with production from only one deep water well, a long way from land, requiring an expensive FPSO.

Makes you wonder what 250 mmcfgd from three onshore wells next to a pipeline to Europe would be worth, especially in a low-tax jurisdiction, with an unrisked NPV of $8 billion per Tcf, and a lot more onshore oil & gas within the licence. It would seem that 100 bagger potential may not be ramping, just current market pricing. PRD valuation answers on a cheque made payable to me. Thanks.

Some points from the NHE announcement, which I have cross-checked with the original Netherland Sewell (NSAI) CPR:
* They are using a He concentration of 3.74% in their calculations.
* They are headlining a Mean estimate, not a P50/Best estimate. This is a little unusual, but gives a higher number!
* First borehole Mbelele-1 is only targeting Lake Beds. NSAI gave 4.7 BCF Mean for Lake Beds, 5.3 BCF Mean for Red Sandstone & Karoo. New (Company, not independent) Mean estimate is 8.1 BCF for Lake Beds only - significant increase.
* Pegere-1 will utilise directional drilling to get under the lake from an onshore location. I can't find this prospect in the CPR.

The increase in Lake Beds estimates could carry over to HE1 prospects. HE1 have done a lot of further work which must give increased confidence and hopefully increased Resources also. There is a possibility that there could be a HE1 CPR update before drilling Tai, but I think it much more likely that it will be after a formal discovery at Tai - that way it can incorporate latest drilling information that confirms recent geophysics. With use of a more realistic He concentration, and the increase in size of the Tai North & Itumbula North prospects, I am expecting a new He Prospective Resource of 300 - 500 BCF helium, plus a Contingent Resource at Tai.

All we need is a rig!

I believe that the current MOU-3, known earlier this year as MOU-A, is the same as the one we were calling MOU-5 before this year. There is a seismic cross-section of MOU-3 & MOU-2 on p.15 of the 1st February 2023 presentation - this and the other presentations are all on the PRD website under /Investors/Presentations. This looks pretty much identical to the diagrams of what were at the time called MOU-4 & MOU-5 on p.9 of the 28th September 2021 and p.7 of the 9th September 2021 presentations.

The combination of these three diagrams shows the shallower structure is the Messinian Fan, with Top & Base Gaddari Sands as the target reservoirs, underlain by the Moulouya Fan we all know and love. About 1000m beneath this, there is another potential target, the Lower Hoot Sands. I am curious that should enough cash become available in time that both MOU-2 and MOU-3 might be deepened to take a look at the Lower Hoot. These are all gas. 1-2000m below that is a Jurassic-age structure, but I haven't seen any detailed seismic, so cannot comment on whether this is likely to be an oil target, and anyway we are not set up to drill perhaps 5000m.

Paul said in the IMC presentation that MOU-3 was about 3km west of MOU-2, hitting a stacked sweet spot but avoiding the gluey slump. I have previously spotted a potential site that I suspect may be the position of MOU-3, it is adjacent to the north side of the A2 motorway, almost exactly 3km east of MOU-2. Just to annoy the folks here who believe that satellite views do not offer any useful information, I will post a link if anything develops there.

There was a suggestion yesterday that the first week of May was not the spud date, but the start date of operations - this was on the basis that local approvals would be required before any construction could start, and this would be followed by an extended period of pad preparation & concreting.

In the RNS of 12th May 2022, it was stated "Environmental Impact Assessment for MOU-4, MOU-5 and MOU-NE well locations approved". MOU-4 was renamed MOU-2, and MOU-5 that was seems to be the likely site for MOU-3. So that appears to be one issue out of the way. From photos of MOU-1 & -2 pads, most of the area seems to be gravel, so I suspect that very little concreting will be necessary, presumably just enough for the rig to stand on - I can't believe this will be on the critical path.

@BRV - should have added I agree with everything else you have said :-)

BRV - I'm not sure that any MOU-2 casing is available to borrow for MOU-3. According to the striplog, MOU-2 is definitely cased to 680m, and I would assume that there is narrower diameter casing below that to prevent hole collapse.

@TT-T, MadmanRob, Fordy. I was aware of the earlier order for long lead time items, but it is still unclear to me if that includes the casing, and what the actual lead time is for the casing. My uncertainty is from Paul's response in the IMC session to a question concerning the timing of what we now call MOU-3. At 45.53 he says:

"We have pre-ordered some equipment for that well, there's more equipment that needs to be ordered if it were to be drilled in the timeframe that which we would like...which would certainly, probably be end of H1 this year after we have completed all our other bits and pieces. There would be a time gap potentially between completing and testing that well because the casing that we need to test that particular that well if it were drilled would take 16 - 18 weeks to deliver currently so you can work back from that. You can drill the well earlier, but there is the issue of completing it at the same time, based on the long lead items. And that's the worst-case long lead item is the completion casing".

The casing would be needed straight after drilling, to avoid borehole collapse, which we know to be very likely given the unconsolidated sand reservoirs. This is confirmed by Paul stating "the issue of completing it at the same time". So we are still left with the puzzle I originally presented - when was the casing ordered - before or after February 1st?

I am very curious regarding different timings that have been announced, and would welcome thoughts from other posters.

* Fact: Paul has stated that he would like to monetise the Morocco assets sooner rather than later, and has given timings ranging from later this year to next year.
* Fact: Paul has stated that to maximise value, he wants 3 producing wells on the MOU-Fan
* Assumption: They would want to do this as quickly as possible, as long as that did not significantly affect costs.
* Fact: During the IMC presentation on 1st February, Paul stated that the limiting factor for drilling MOU-A was obtaining casing, which had a lead time of 16 - 18 weeks.
* Fact: The RNS last Friday suggested that drilling is planned for 1st week in May.
* Fact: From February 1st to May 3rd is 13 weeks, less than the casing lead time.

which leaves two questions:

1. Has the casing availability improved substantially - if ordered on the day of last week's RNS, it is expected to arrive in just 7 weeks rather than 16 - 18? or,
2. Was it ordered some weeks ago, using cash that was originally intended for MOU-1 & MOU-2, and the testing/drilling of these deliberately rescheduled, enabling completion of MOU-2 & -3 to occur within a few days of each other, and testing to be performed simultaneously on all 3 MOU wells, possibly allowing 3-way reservoir continuity tests? If successful, such tests would greatly increase the value of the assets available for sale.

Do you think this is one or more of a conspiracy theory / probably correct / sensible / deceptive?

@Fordy - You are very kind giving StanAccy the benefit of the doubt. He doesn't deserve it. Look at his past posting history. He has infested the KAV board for months with nothing but personal attacks on the BOD. Clearly has an agenda.

I suspect that many eyes glazed over at some of the recent outpourings on this board that are attempting to prove that the writers are both intellectuals and successful investors. There is actually some sense behind it all, it's just the verbiage gets in the way of comprehension. Out of curiosity, I ran all this guff past my new friend ChatGPT, this is the interesting interpretation:

"Inductive reasoning is a form of empirical thinking in which one uses observations and evidence to form a conclusion. It is different from deductive reasoning, which uses a set of premises to arrive at a logical conclusion. In inductive reasoning, one takes the evidence and makes a conclusion based on the evidence. This conclusion may not be 100% certain, but it is based on the available evidence and is a reasonable conclusion."

"The best way to avoid making assumptions when reading RNS's is to approach the text objectively, with an open mind and an inquisitive attitude. Ask yourself questions and challenge the premises. Look for factual evidence to support or refute any assertions. Do additional research to gain a better understanding of the company and its industry. In addition, take the time to consider what the RNS might mean for your investment strategy - is it a buy, sell, or hold opportunity? Ultimately, it is important to remember that no investment is risk-free and losses can occur, so it is important to be mindful of this and make decisions thoughtfully."

Couldn't have put it better myself.

NH wrote: "All of these micro E and P's, pharmas and tech companies and many others are expressly clear in their prospectuses about risk and the demographic of investors who should invest......along with myself and a few others are in this category."

I'm confused re. the demographics. From his own posts, he has no tertiary qualifications, was made redundant at 56 and hasn't found a job since, and rides a motorbike. Uses big words (sometimes incorrectly) to appear to be an intellectual, then puts others down for their lack of intellect and education. Uses technical terminology (again often incorrectly) to appear to be knowledgeable about the subject, but accuses others, who have actual relevant professional qualifications, knowledge and experience, of ignorance. Then has the audacity to suggest others drink cheap lager and drive Fords - classic case of projection.

Maybe he can save a few pennies to invest by not having any family or friends to go out for meals with, nor any need to buy birthday or Christmas presents. Sad.

An EIA was completed for what at one time was called MOU-5. The small-scale maps in the last presentation showed site MOU-A, now apparently to be called MOU-3, to be at the same place, or at worst within half a km or so, of the former MOU-5. So I will answer in the same terms as today's RNS - Yes, possibly, perhaps, maybe or no.

Graham, we all hope that you are correct, but at the moment it is only an assumption. The market does not like uncertainty, so if your assumptions are correct, why not just add the phrase "at the same time that work on MOU-1 & -2 is continuing" to the RNS? If you have Paul's private number, please have a word with him!