Member Info for KeithOz

Earlier this morning (my time - evening for most of you), I had a brief message exchange with Graham concerning drillhole depth. To preclude conspiracy theories, I have never met the gentleman, and our conclusions arose independently. I had originally said to him that I would not make my thoughts public, since they could be readily misinterpreted, especially by those here of ill-will. I then looked at this BB, and saw that the topic had already been brought up by Jimmy, and also by requote of a GRH tweet. So, I will try to explain my thoughts. Let's try and work through some fairly complicated stuff. If you want a full technical explanation, try this:
https://csegrecorder.com/articles/view/true-depth-conversion-more-than-a-pretty-picture

If not for you, read on!

When you look at a seismic chart such as the ones in PRD's presentations, you will see that the ordinate (y axis) is labelled 'ms' and might assume this represents metres - but it is actually milliseconds, being the time taken for a seismic wave to travel down from the surface and be reflected from an underlying rock stratum back up to the surface - this is the two way time, or TWT. Seismic waves travel faster the denser the rock. As an example, gabbro is a very dense rock type, so waves pass through it very quickly, so a layer will appear 'thinner' on a TWT chart than a layer of less-dense sandstone, even though both rock layers are of equal real thickness.

To convert TWT to actual depth, it is necessary to know what the likely rock densities will be - for which of course you have to have a best guess at what thicknesses of which rocks you are likely to drill, a Catch-22 situation. No one can possibly know this for sure, but best indication is from nearby drillholes, where you already know rock types, densities & depths. PRD have done all this, and derived the most likely depth of the reservoir.

What the MOU-2 drill data have shown is an unexpected actual thickness of shale/mudstone, which is quite dense, and consequently appeared thinner on the TWT chart. This could mean that the expected reservoir is deeper than anticipated, and also possibly thicker. Is that good or bad? - Well you might have to drill an extra day, but if the base of the reservoir is lower than previously thought, that means the gas spill point (from where the observed gas cloud originates) is also lower, meaning that the gas fill extends across a greater area than previously calculated. That means more gas!

There was some speculation that the gas cloud could be due to leakage through the top seal. This is now seen not to be the case - there is no gas directly above the seal, which is made of impervious claystone. The source of the gas cloud is therefore most likely to be from the base of the reservoir structure.

Just theory atm, let's see what Paul has to say.

Whoppy is knowingly telling whoppers, needs to be slapped down. Could this be the same slapper-downerer? https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342

Every time I take a look at this BB, I see endless criticism of HE1 management. To enable me to put this in perspective, it would be useful to know how many of you have:

* Ever been the CEO/MD of a quoted or large unquoted business.
* Ever operated in Tanzania or similar 'difficult' jurisdiction.
* Ever done both of the above during worldwide disruption to normal operations due to pandemic and war.

No, thought not.

Saw this strangely titled thread, so opened it up. Started by NH, who said "Posting links to the Sentinel site is pointless...yet more bilge by the rampers to keep the gamblers mentally frozen rigid." Which was presumably in response to my earlier post:
"Nothing much happens between 03 and 08. There are then obvious changes between 08 & 10, with a number of things rearranged in the pad area, no change again between 10 & 13. I would think it unlikely that if you were in the middle of actual drilling that there would be major rearrangements taking place on the immediate pad area, except possibly the delivery of an extra drill pipe rack. Everything would be organised in final positions before the commencement of drilling.
My conclusion is that spud was around 9th January."

Striplog says spud was 8th January. I haven't put this up to boast, but to demonstrate that some posters here demonstrate an unfortunate combination of ignorance, arrogance & rudeness, which results in an inability to provide anything of value to other board members. Back on filter.

@Oldernwiser. Paul & Lonny do not need the relevant expertise. Star Valley Drilling & Chinook Petroleum are responsible for all drilling & services. They are both Canadian-based companies with global experience, certainly not just Morocco. This sort of issue is bread & butter to them.

First, I have never, ever seen a company publish a full strip log while the well is still being drilled -and MOU-2 is still being drilled. To me that shows a quite remarkable degree of openness and very likely optimism. Some remarks:
* This is of course just LWD, not a wireline log.
* Spud was on 8th January
* Drilling mud was Pure-Bore. This is specifically designed for high porosity & permeability conditions, which is what was (and still is) expected to be the case for the reservoir sands - remember the unconsolidated reservoir conditions that held up MOU-1. Unfortunately, mud facies is the polar opposite of what was expected. I guess they will have to use different spec drilling mud going through the mud facies, then revert to Pure-Bore for the sands. As I and others have said today, this is not unusual.
* Between -500 and -680m there are quite a lot of sandstone beds alternating with shales and conglomerates with elevated (but probably not commercial) gas shows. Suggestive of biogenic (formed in situ) gas.
* Looks like logs were run from -630 to determine porosity, but abandoned about -985.
* Below -930 there were very large thicknesses of shale, with slow drilling. The interleaved sandstone beds also have a clay matrix.
* From -1238 to TD at -1260, drilling got real slow.
* No evidence of thermogenic gas yet - although anticipated reservoir should be close. If you are a pessimist, you will say that is because there is no gas, if an optimist, that the mud facies is providing an excellent seal.

@PT & @Razorman. I assume that the combination of natural mud and drilling mud is creating soup, which means you will not be able to log even if you could dtill deeper. They have said that they are reviewing the drilling mud strategy. I am no drilling expert, but I assume there is an off-the-shelf solution for what is a not an uncommon problem. Whether such a solution is available rapidly given the supply chain issues I don't know, but I see no reason why this should be so costly that a further raise is necessary. Just deramping nonsense from the normal suspects trying to drive the price lower.

Ignoring gg's ignorant and incorrect post, I have had a more detailed read through. Obviously having to suspend a well is not good news, but to cheer you up, I see a few positives:

*Rig is still in position, obviously they believe this is a problem that can be overcome on re-entry.
*Please correct me if necessary, Caterham7, but I understand that if the rapid deposition conditions seen in the mud flow are repeated in the sand horizons, this is likely to result in higher permeability & porosity.
*A potential sequence of 28m gross, 16m net was encountered - this is a much better gross:net ratio than has been assumed so far.
*All that sticky mud should provide a pretty good seal.
*We should see some pretty comprehensive data from MOU-1 - note the bit at the end "The MOU-1 testing programme is being progressed and revised to gather as much information as possible on connectivity of potential gas sands over a WIDE AREA". (my caps).

Anyone found the photos yet?

I have always been more concerned with the engineering challenges rather than the likelihood of substantial gas. At least they are accelerating the flow testing of MOU-1. Proving that MOU-1 is commercial, not a duster, as many seem to think, will be a great help, but of course does not make up for not having got to the target reservoir with MOU-2.

Should have added that Graham was good friends with the late Adnan Samarrai, discoverer of probably more oil than anyone else this century. Bio here:
https://www.geolsoc.org.uk/About/History/Obituaries-2001-onwards/Obituaries-2021/Adnan-Samarrai.

Adnan had looked over the Guercif data, and added his views, which I am sure will have been communicated to PRD management.

M-J: GRH was a (the) prominent poster on this board, he got fed up with the incessant trolling, and now uses Twitter for his messaging re. PRD, hidden in between the cars, dogs & politics! You can find him at:

https://mobile.twitter.com/GrahamHengland/with_replies

Unlike some on this board, he is a real person with a verifiable, impressive CV. Of particular relevance is his involvement in Scotforth, the original multispectral/hyperspectral O & G imaging company. It was their data that correctly predicted the Genel Behr Bahr & GKP Shaikan discoveries. It is believed that such data is also available for the Guercif licence, hence Graham's considerable enthusiasm for PRD's prospects.

Hope that helps, from a fellow (youngish) retired scientist.

Who is Mumbo_Jumbo?

30M BOE/day = 158MM cfg/day. 24th November RNS talks about 150 - 250 MM cfg/day

btw, PRD IPO was May 24th, 2018.

Short answer: No.
Long answer: They would not be testing yet, so no flare. A flare would show as bright spot on IR, this does not. Methane does not produce smoke. Probably just changes in reflectivity due to sun angle/time of day, but maybe burning rubbish - would only do that if it was safe, indicating drilling has finished and well has been completed ready for testing.
If it was a new Pope, someone would have declared "testiculos habet et bene pendentes", which they have not :-)

DM and I have both worked in the past for the British Geological Survey, but at different times. As far as I am aware, his only other current employment is as a non-executive Director for recently-listed East Star Resources (EST:LSE) an outfit looking for a range of resources in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is very under-explored, but with lots of dodgy data from Soviet times. I read a lot of exploration company CPRs, and can say without question that the EST one is the thinnest and least convincing I have ever read. However, that may be an opportunity, since the country is mineral rich but with little exploration using modern techniques. EST has yet to publish accounts, so I don't know how much they are paying him. Non-execs are usually only there in an advisory capacity, so this should not take up too much of his time.

Part 2

Changes are obvious between 29 & 03 - objects from outside are brought into the square pad. There are also marked changes in the field to the immediate south of the pad, just above the A2 road. This is (was?) an olive grove, I'm not sure if the changes are just agricultural in nature, or represent a change of use, perhaps resurfacing? Nothing much happens between 03 and 08. There are then obvious changes between 08 & 10, with a number of things rearranged in the pad area, no change again between 10 & 13.

I would think it unlikely that if you were in the middle of actual drilling that there would be major rearrangements taking place on the immediate pad area, except possibly the delivery of an extra drill pipe rack. Everything would be organised in final positions before the commencement of drilling.

My conclusion is that spud was around 9th January, meaning that TD will be reached 21st – 24th. If the next RNS is only TD, then not much would need to be agreed with ONHYM, and could be made within a day or so. If LWD results are to be included, add at least another 2-3 days, since PRD management must by now understand the importance of correct wording in order to avoid the misinterpretations after the first MOU-1 RNS, and this will need to be wrangled over with ONHYM.

I have been wrong before, and may be again this time. I will be very happy to be wrong if there is a positive announcement earlier, especially if it is today! You have to come to your own conclusions, but all the best for the Year of the Rabbit. It's imminent – but so was the drilling. :-)

Part 1.

Morocco is a Muslim country, so we must respect its traditions - for example the four Great Unknowns of Islam are *the time and place of birth * the time and place of death * the gender of a child within the womb, and * when it will rain. These are known only to Allah. To these four it appears we must add 'When did MOU-2 spud?'

My original thoughts after the December 30th RNS were that if you had a $200K per day rig & crew on site, you would get on with it with minimal delay, and that it would happen during the 4-day holiday when a formal spud RNS could not be issued. A source I respect suggested to me a couple of days later that my supposition was incorrect - now supported by the absence of any further RNS.

MOU-1 was forecast to take 20 days, it was actually 16 days from spud to announcement (20th June - 6th July), which included the LWD (logging while drilling) results. The wireline had already been run, but it stated that the results would be released after detailed analysis. TD was 1487m. During drilling they had to take account of unexpectedly high pressure and washout of unconsolidated sand reservoir sections.

MOU-2 has been forecast to take 12 -15 days, apparently excluding wireline. TD at 1500m is roughly the same as MOU-1, but potential high pressure and unconsolidated sands have been extensively planned for. Since we have yet to receive a TD announcement, that suggests that spud did indeed take place later than I originally thought.

I have made a loop of Sentinel-2 satellite photos of the MOU-2 site, from 29th December to 13th January. 29, 03, 08, 10 & 13 are included, not 05 & 18 due to cloud. There should be another pass today (20th), but there is currently light cloud - please refer back to paragraph 1 re. weather forecasts :-) If you do this yourselves, you need to take into account that the satellite passes at different times each day, so allowance has to be made for changes in relative brightness and shadow length. As an example, the bright white spot at the south end of the pad seen on some views but not others, is sun reflecting off something, most probably water in an open tank.

Hi Bob, just posting to demonstrate I am not part of an alleged insider cabal. I used to have a poster of this on the wall of my student lodgings. We have a friend called Desiderata, better known as Crazy Daisy, her four other siblings all have interesting names - Dad was the recently departed Joey "Pepe" Smith, known as the Filipino Mick Jagger.

"weirdly over enamoured of the enigmatic Cube" Huh?? Where did you get that from? I just think he/she/it will turn out be correct re. both PRD & PANR. Both are wildly undervalued by any reasonable metrics, both appear to be suffering from propagation of a view that the management are not competent and/or mendacious. We shall see in a couple of months, once definitive flow tests for both are concluded. Real value may not be crystallised until big players with deep pockets see through the smokescreen and make offers for both companies, or for their projects.