Member Info for KeithOz

I need to work daily in AUD, USD & GBP, and have FX charts running in the background. Below the charts are 3rd party forecasts as to how the various currency pairs are going to perform over the next few days/weeks. The forecasts are wrong more often than correct. I do not understand why anyone puts any faith in all these esoteric concepts without any evidence that they actually work - particularly so for a resource stock where the share price movements will be driven by events. About as daft as astrology or the I Ching :-) No insult intended, just really don't get it.

@Jimmy. Back to the real world. Top seals are very likely to be the same gypsumiferous claystones found in the previous boreholes, imho they are likely to be leak-free. As for the numerous faults, some have the opinion that they are gas conduits, others seals - I simply don't know if the specific one you are referring to acts as a seal or not. The fact that MOU-1 was at 2700 psi gives me confidence that if these are the same structure, any leaks that have occurred would still result in a substantial amount of gas still in place.

I would love to see the gas cloud at higher resolution, it does appear to start pretty deep down, suggesting a fill-to-spill origin rather than a leak - I and others here have surmised that reservoirs below the level of the MOU-2 reservoir may also be contributing to this cloud.

Seismic has not detected gas/water contacts, but of course that may be because the seismic is not of sufficient quality. I am not aware of contacts having been observed in the nearby historic drill holes, although this was a problem in the more distant (and Jurassic) MOU-NW back in the 1920's. The gas/water contacts seen at Anchois are of course much deeper than the MOU-2 expected reservoir, since the Anchois drilling started well below sea level, whereas MOU-2 is well above.

I guess we will have some initial indication next week.

P999 & MEM - Also need a very substantial local source of spare CO2, which isn't being used to put the bubbles in Coca-Cola.

Hi Bob, just as well Ouspensky & Gurdjieff aren't around to read these BB's, it might spark another impenetrable volume of Beelzebub's Tales.

Jimmy - I have the guaranteed winning numbers for the Oz Lott right here, modest non-refundable subscription payable in Bitcoin. Can't guarantee which draw they are correct for, though.

Yesterday there were some on here who were seeking reassurance on Guercif, and were concerned about the low number of related posts. Not much on here because everything that can be said has been said, we are now quietly & patiently waiting. Since I having nothing further to offer geophysical, how about something metaphysical?

Disclaimer – I have neither expertise nor credence in any of this. Spooky, nevertheless!

* Taoist divination.

Some while ago I posted the I Ching judgement for PRD, its operations & shareholders. This came up with Chapter 24, Fu, which is specifically linked with the 7th month of the ancient Chinese calendar - 21st December to 21st January.

“Change. Return. Success. Action brings good fortune. Going in and coming out without error. Thunder within the Earth (!) – the image of the Turning Point”

RNS 13 Dec 22 - “The possible presence of high pressure gas in the primary target has been prudently allowed for in the well design“

* Western Astrology.

Times adjusted to GMT (I am 10 hours ahead of UK).

Mars, the planet linked to energy & power, has been retrograde (appears to be going backwards across the sky) since October. It turns direct (this is allegedly very positive) late evening on Thursday 12th January.

RNS 13 Dec 22 - “The primary gas target is anticipated to be reached within 10 days of the commencement of drilling”.

Mercury, the planet of communication, also changes from retrograde to direct, on the afternoon of Wednesday 18th January, implying positive comms & an end to misunderstandings.

RNS 13 Dec 22 - “The well … is expected to take between 12 to 15 Days to complete”.
RNS 30 Dec 22 - “A further update will be given, which is subject to partner approval, when MOU-2 reaches its intended pre-drill total depth of 1,500 metres TVD KB”.

I would appreciate a 3rd opinion - anyone got a granny that throws a mean Tarot, or does tea leaves?

Oil production in T & T has been falling steadily since a peak of 140MM BBl per annum in 2007, to currently only 60MM BBl.

"The economy of Trinidad and Tobago which mainly relies on its energy sector is facing significant challenges due to declining crude oil production in a low commodity price environment. The need for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods to meet the current and future energy demands is urgent." Coolman et al, Journal of Petroleum Exploration and Production Technology, 15th Sept 2019.

For the 2023 Budget, the oil & gas investment tax credit (includes EOR) is being increased from 25% to 30%. PRD in the right place and right time once again.

Perhaps I should have expanded my first post a little. As others have pointed out this morning, CO2 EOR is now required by the T & T authorities for both new blocks and transferred licences. So today, 6 licences on the Herrera (3 from TXP to LOL, 3 from LOL to TXP) became required candidates for EOR for the first time. There are another 3 licences currently being bid for in the latest onshore round (bidding closes today, I believe) which will also require EOR. Add to those 9 our own Cory Moruga and CEG's Innis-Trinity, and that is 11 licences covering almost the entire Herrera turbidites. Plus CEG has other licences that that have indicated they want PRD to work with them on. As GRH has tweeted, a big business in formation.

I was doing some digging while you posted! As we know, Touchstone holds a 16.2% WI in Cory Moruga block, we have just acquired the remainder. Have a look at this map from TXP's presentation today, on p.14. They already hold the Ortoire block to the east of the Herrera turbidite sands fairway, have today acquired the Balata East & Rio Clara blocks to the immediate north of Ortoire, and are presumably bidding for the St Mary's & Cipero blocks in the current onshore round - these latter two link their existing holdings in the ease to Cory Moruga in the centre of the Herrera fairway.

https://www.touchstoneexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Corporate-Presentation-January-2023.pdf

They clearly believe there is substantial prospectivity remaining in the Herrera turbidites, since they are busy vacuuming up the entire area. I expect TXP will be highly involved in the larger scheme of CO2 EOR which Paul & Lonny are pulling together.

@PT. Thanks for linking the Financial Post article on Vermilion. This is potentially very interesting for PRD - Vermilion are going ahead with the remaining Corrib purchase from Equinor, despite Ireland imposing a 75% windfall tax, as opposed to the rest of the EU only setting 33%. The deal closes 31st March. If I was in my old job as Business Development director, but for Vermilion, my PowerPoint pressy to the board might look like this:

* We want to maximise the value of our purchase of Corrib.
* Let's look at what data PRD has on the adjoining Corrib South. (I assume they are already in the data room)
* If we think it could provide economic gas, that would: extend the life of our operations, increase throughput for our existing infrastructure thus lowering costs per m³, and put us in a powerful position as Ireland's #1 gas supplier for the next decade.
* Once the Corrib transaction has closed, we (Vermilion), PRD & Theseus should open negotiations with the Irish Government.
* The deal we propose is that they should immediately grant the S.A. for Corrib South, and its transfer to Vermilion.
* In exchange for the investment in developing Corrib South and guaranteeing Irish gas supply for the next decade, Vermilion should receive a favourable tax rate for sales from its Irish assets, in line with the rest of the EU.
* PRD get a nice big lump of cash, plus a %age royalty for future sales from Corrib South.

Should anyone start foaming at the mouth at the mention of Theseus - before posting conspiracy theories, please look at the Prospectus dated 19th February 2020, p.38. It's all there in black & white.

As hopefully you all know, the MOU structure currently being drilled is a turbidite fan. Worldwide, turbidites provide some of the most important and productive hydrocarbon reservoirs. In my view, it underlines the credibility of the Predator proposition that a well-known industry veteran and acknowledged (and published) expert on turbidites has a substantial holding here, I would add my thanks for his contributions.

The RNS of 30th December stated “A further update will be given, which is subject to partner approval, when MOU-2 reaches its intended pre-drill total depth of 1,500 metres TVD KB and prior to the commencement of wireline logging operations.”

Why just inform on TD? I suspect the answer relates to the MOU-1 RNS fiasco.

The MOU-1 initial RNS was widely misinterpreted, many today still apparently believe it was a duster. PG has explained in detail (particularly during the London presentation) the problems faced testing an unexpectedly overpressured borehole with poorly consolidated reservoir sands, washouts, and expanding clays. To get definitive readings, detailed specialist log interpretation by Nutech was required, and that may not be available until some time after finishing MOU-2.

I assume that MOU-1 was not logged while drilling, but a wireline was run after completion of each stage. The first 100m was drilled at 13 3/8”, down to 800m was 9 5/8”, then down to 1500m TD at 4½'. Some logs (eg resistivity, SP) can only be done in an open hole, others can be done after casing. Given the poor hole conditions, I would expect them to case each stage as soon as possible.

Given that we should anticipate similar issues with MOU-2, I assume that they will log the 2nd stage (looking for biogenic gas), then case, drill down through the primary target reservoir (thermogenic gas), then log again and finish casing, with completion ready for rigless testing. So by the time the next RNS is issued, some (all?) wireline logging will already have been completed, but it's just they are not prepared to issue unverified data. Do others agree that this is the likely scenario?

Next, I have some questions related to testing. There has been some discussion on simultaneous testing of MOU-1 & -2 to determine connectivity of the reservoir. I am familiar with these procedures, but have never heard of it being done with two boreholes so far apart (8km). Does anyone with specialist knowledge of this sort of testing know if this is likely to work?

Classicly, flow testing would be run over 30, 60 & 90 days. If the reservoir is as large and overpressured as we hope, is there anything to be gained by long term flow tests? The volume of gas flowed during the testing period will be such a small proportion of the whole that any pressure decline would be minimal. Again, for those with specialist knowledge, what sort of flow testing parameters would a partner or finance lender require before entering into an agreement?

I guess I am questioning how long it will take for sufficiently detailed and accurate logs and tests to be available before PRD, and most importantly ONHYM, are prepared to release them? I really don't see this being this month, as it seems some here are expecting. Would it be one RNS containing the whole data bundle? PG is acutely aware that any news release for MOU-2 does not cause the confusion that arose after MOU-1. Thoughts, p

Could someone please translate this:
"Oil Emergency Contingency and Transfer of Renewable Transport Fuels Functions Bill 2022."

erm, I think there might be a typo in the bit about converting gas to oil equivalents.

1 million cubic feet of gas (1MM cfg) = 190 barrels of oil equivalent (boe)

The best universal gas & oil calculator I have found is here:

https://www.energy-sea.gov.il/English-Site/Pages/Data%20and%20Maps/calc.aspx

It enables you to convert just about any unit of gas or oil into another, imperial, US, metric or thermal. Worth bookmarking.

@Dicko - things have changed a little since the September presentation. The order of things happening for Morocco is likely to be:

* Farmout negotiations - ongoing, unknown timing for completion
* MOU-2 completion
* MOU-2 flow testing
* MOU-1 flow testing
* Execution of CNG agreement
* Execution of initial gas sales agreement (industry)
* MOU-3 drilling
* Execution of gas sales agreement (gas-to-power)
* MOU-NE Prospect CPR (don't know what the current name for this oil prospect is!!)

In the next couple of months, expect to hear further on:

* External investment into the CO2 EOR entity in T & T, with expansion of operations.
* Cory-Morunga CPR
* Potentially, grant of Successor Authorisation for Corrib South & Ram Head
* If so, negotiations for purchase or JV for Corrib South, most likely with Vermilion

With regard to Morocco farmout/sale, I have a strong suspicion that the wording of recent RNSs is designed to push potential partners to move more quickly or come up with better terms, rather than just to inform us. If so, a deal could certainly occur a lot sooner than most folks realise. Just my guess.

If Oscar Wilde was alive today, and writing 'The Importance of Finding Helium', he would have Lady Bracknell say "To lose one rig, Mr Minchin, may be regarded as unfortunate; to lose three looks like carelessness".

Just to confirm - the MOU was definitely for the Exalo #202 rig being used by Invictus, and a Memorandum of Understanding is just what it says on the tin - it is not a legally binding contract. IF Exalo have another suitable rig available to be transported to Rukwa in a reasonable timeframe, I am sure they will make it available - but they have no legal obligation to do so, and would not do so if it is not profitable for them to do so.

Services are available:
"Company will onclude operations on Mukuyu-1 and ST1 well and demobilise the well services equipment
and personnel."
But not the rig:
"Rig 202 will be warm stacked at the Mukuyu-1 well location to allow for maintenance and upgrades prior to recommencing drilling "

HE1 have been screwed again, I am very curious what DM will have to say about this.

Different people, different continent, different geology, different drilling techniques, hopefully different results. Some shareholders (including some here) have holdings in both companies. But both start with a P.

There may be some who are not aware of the importance of what GRH has just revealed: The late Adnan Samarrai discovered Shaikan, among many other oilfields. Graham financed Scotforth, one of the first hyperspectral companies. Scotforth provided Adnan with HSSI data that optimised Shaikan drilling.

For the first time that I am aware of, Graham has revealed that he has discussed Guercif (presumably Guercif HSSI data) with Adnan. Presumably GRH's huge enthusiasm for PRD is partly based on Adnan's opinion of the prospectivity.

I'm very appreciative that Graham has been prepared to share this information, and look forward to the confirmation of their views over the next couple of months.

@Jimmy said "Had another look at the seismic and can now see the flat spot between MOU 1 and 2 ". This is one of several pointers that this is all one structure, with continuity of the TGB-2, TGB-3 & TGB-4 reservoir sands. (TGB = Taza Guercif Basin). There is something else that has got some of us excited - the possibility that these reservoir sands are both continuous and gas charged over a much larger area than the MOU turbidite fan currently being drilled. I refer you to an excellent post by our learned friend the Wackmeister, preserved for all eternity on Reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/tm3dde/2021aug14_wacky_tgb_3_4_sands/

It's a bit technical, but in summary you will recall that there was drilling on the Guercif licences in the 1970's, looking for oil, but found gas instead. Wacky has looked at the old borehole data and concluded that there is a good chance of the above-mentioned reservoir sands continuing over a much greater area, including where MSD-1 and GRF-1 hit gas, which at that time was not of economic interest.

He notes in a subsequent post that ONHYM has renamed these old wells, and observes, quite reasonably in my opinion "why change the name of a fifty-year-old well, unless it is going to become part of a new project?"

https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/uryse4/2022may16_wacky_guercif_ireland_points/

Some further speculation: I am pretty sure that at least two regulars here have seen non-public hyperspectral data for the Guercif licences, and I suspect that this HSSI evidences gas shows across a much larger area than just the MOU-Fan. I have not seen enough seismic data to determine the extent of possible traps, but given the extensive folding and faulting that the Guercif graben has experienced, they must exist - size and economic viability obviously unknown at this stage.

So we have an extraordinarily favourable geological history for the Guercif graben area, reservoir rocks with just about the best porosity & permeability most of us have ever seen, overpressured gas in MOU-1, reservoir continuity highly likely in MOU-2, and the added possibility of gas charged prospects over a very large area. Plus high gas prices, low tax environment, an eager market, and of course not forgetting Paul, Lonny & team. What's not to like?