Member Info for KeithOz

I hoped I made it clear that that my opinion that spud had occurred, was made with reference to the assumptions that I stated. These assumptions were based on the RNS of 30th December, previously stated drill costs, and what is publicly available from viewing Sentinel-2 satellite images. Perhaps it would be useful if those that don't think spud has occurred could also state their assumptions, that way we can enter into a useful debate.
I recognise that if someone has actual knowledge of what is going on, that would be classed as inside information, so they should not be commenting at all.

Han****??? lol. Seriously, what pathetic auto-moderation.

Lots of eyes will be on MOU-2.

1.) NewMed Energy. I think an English version of this may have been posted here, but if not, here's the original (en français):
https://www.bladi.net/maroc-prochain-hub-energetique,97943.html
NewMed Energy has a 45.34% working interest in Leviathan, so have a few spare shekels to shake.

2.) Australia's very own Han**** Prospecting are accelerating their intention to diversify away from iron ore and into gas. Unfortunately, they only made $7 billion profit last year, and now have a trifling $18 billion war chest available. So far:
https://www.han****prospecting.com.au/bid-to-deliver-big-stake/
and
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/stokes-beach-raises-offer-for-warrego-trumping-han****-20221202-p5c32z

Rumour is Han**** want to diversify geographically as well, looking for a more favourable tax environment.

Anyone have some more potential purchasers to add to the list?

Woke up to lots of nonsense posted during my night time. Go to:

https://www.predatoroilandgas.com/operations/morocco/

Scroll down 4 pictures to the video of Star Valley 101 being set up in 4 hours. Once set up, this rig & crew costs around $200,000 per day. Who in their right mind sets it up, starts incurring charges, and goes off on holiday for a couple of weeks? Since the RNS was well over 4 hours ago, you can assume they have not only completed setup, but have been drilling for quite a few hours. So: TD likely 12th - 15th January, first indication of what is there w/c 16th, flow test complete by end February. Not really that complicated.

@LochNez. That is an interesting question, since the RNS does actually say the next RNS will be "prior to the commencement of wireline logging operations." I don't recall ever seeing an RNS from anyone that just says TD has been reached, without any indication of what has been found - in fact I would think such a statement would be taken negatively by the market, since there would be an implication that nothing had been found.

An initial wireline log would be completed very quickly, before final casing, so it is normal to release initial log results as part of the first release regarding a completed drill. The initial MOU-1 RNS did exactly this - TD, plus thickness and depths of gas shows, together with gas composition.

Rigless testing, involving transient pressure tests and sustained flow tests, are obviously going to take a lot longer, so would be a separate RNS. I've tried asking technical questions before, they seemed to get referred to the PR company, who are unable to answer them!

If you look at the latest satellite pics there's a lot of movement on site - try comparing 24th, 26th & 29th. I am sure spud will be within 48hrs, and that others here are correct that tight hole status will be maintained, partly as an ONHYM requirement. This is perfectly normal, so you can safely ignore the conspiracy theories some here would like to offer.

Moyra Scott and her Canadian team are very familiar with the Star Valley 101 rig, having used it not only for MOU-1, but previously for multiple holes with SDX. We are in excellent hands, I am sticking with my suggestion in my 07.11 post today that the RNS with initial indications will be w/c 16th January.

Despite:
1. Less than 40% of the frac fluid has yet to be recovered.
2. Only 4000 ft is yet producing.
3. Produced gas is being used to power the site.
There is still a huge flare.
I am genuinely interested to see what negative spin the ***** truant2b on Twitter will put on this - a few says ago he was claiming that PANR management were fooling us by burning diesel (at several hundred thousand $ a day??) to produce the flare. Hopefully he will not be able to exit his short position, a suitable punishment for months of bare-faced lies on Twitter.
Happy New Year to everyone else here.

Doesn't exactly tell us what we didn't already know from the satellite pix, but presumably they will start drilling after sobering up on Sunday!

So in two to three weeks' time, we will get the first indication as to whether all those beans we have bought are Magic Beans giving us TCFs of methane, or just Heinz varieties producing disappointing flatulence.

I expect that all will be quiet until a couple of days after TD is reached (Jan 15th?), once an initial wireline log has been run. We should then be informed w/c 16th Jan of number and thickness of intervals containing gas, the gas composition and %ages, and possibly initial pressure.

Rigless testing will then start, presumably running for at least 30 days, to determine flow rates from each potential producing interval, and total stabilised flow rate. If it is obvious that volumes and pressures are outstanding and constant, it is probable that MOUs will morph into firm contracts before the completion of the standard 30 day tests, although of course flow rates will continue to be monitored for some months. If lots of gas is potentially being vented, I am sure that Lonny & Paul will want to get CNG gear in place asap, in order to commence gas sales.

Happy New Year.

Baker Hughes / Exalo are working for both Invictus and HE1. The Exalo rig will remain in position until logging is complete - they are using the drill string to 'fish' the logging tools, which should save some time - hopefully everything should be completed in a couple more days. It is correct that the logging tools are both very expensive and contain radioactive materials, so they will be trying very hard to retrieve it. This sort of thing sounds drastic, but is not at all uncommon.
I do not expect the rig and services agreements to be finalised until Invictus operations are complete - my best guess is that we may get an RNS at the end of next week.

It is my understanding that a delay in announcing price-sensitive news can only occur if there is an ongoing confidential situation such as a corporate transaction (take over, farm in/out, etc) which would be compromised as a result of an announcement. You can't just delay an announcement for convenience.
You do raise a very interesting point (and very scary for shorters) that share trading could be suspended pending such a corporate transaction, and on resumption of trading find themselves instantly bankrupted. Take a look at Savannah Energy (LSE:SAVE) - they have been suspended twice in the last year or so for exactly these reasons.

Debt is gearing. The loan terms always dictate that debt repayment takes priority, especially over shareholders. This works well if everything is going positively, and income received exceeds interest due. If you are geared and run into trouble, your problems are multiplied. When local conflict delayed payment to GKP for Shaikan oil, the debt burden caused GKP to collapse. Failure due to debt burden is depressingly common, so being debt free is a major positive.

Tendentious twaddle indeed - from the OP.

In case you're a more recent investor, this is what was used last year. You may notice a small difference in size and capability!

https://twitter.com/Heliumone1/status/1404318662803210241

Anyone who was invested in HE1 at the time of the first Tai drill should take a look at the four short videos posted by Dai on Monday 22.05. These are not his usual 'funnies', but clips of the Exalo rig arriving on site and being assembled. You will be both impressed and reassured. Diolch, Dai!

@NN - worthwhile setting up images for the 24th & 26th on separate tabs and toggling between them to see the differences. Two sheds have moved from the pad area to the field immediately to the east. The main pad area has been resurfaced, I think you are correct, it does look like the drill in the middle. The two fields immediately to the north also have changes to the surfaces. Agree there is a good chance of an RNS on open.

It would seem that Mad Max has subcontracted the trucking job to Derek Trotter with his Reliant 3-wheeler. Never mind, Happy Christmas, see you next year.

@FKC. Somewhat ambiguous tweet. All Cu/Ag mineralisation in the KCB is found at the DK/NP contact, but not all this contact is mineralised. In fact, very little of the contact is mineralised - otherwise there would be a sheet of mineralisation across the entire KCB. This contact is a redox boundary, meaning that the marked change in chemical conditions is conducive to the deposition of minerals from rising hydrothermal fluids. However, there must be some kind of conduit for those fluids beneath the DK/NP contact, and it is this 3-dimensional situation that is being searched for.

In practice, deposition is most common in the (often sheared) limbs of anticlines, and in fault or other shear zones, since these enable relatively free upwards flow of mineralised fluids. CSAMT appears to be pretty good at identifying those sheared zones / conduits, and where they intersect the DK/NP gives the greatest chance of finding economic mineralisation.

I would have hoped that all six drill holes would be planned to hit such an intersection, but have not seen CSAMT data combined with the previous geochem & geophysics for each of the holes - if not, why did they position the drills where they have? It is not very clear if the first five have been completed in DD, and if they have, there has been no announcement of hitting anything interesting. I guess it will come out in the wash at the end of the campaign. Hope that helps - K

@Jimmy. Short answer: No. Longer answer: 1.1M Bbl for the one drilled prospect on the licence, basis of resource estimation unknown. 100Bbl/day was stabilised flow rate, but never put into production. Other prospects have been drilled historically (1950's) - can't find any data. PRD clearly think there is greater prospectivity, hence the reference to <5MMbbl, 5-10MMBbl, and >10MMBbl thresholds for expenditure payback.

I have not previously assigned much, if any, value to T & T and Ireland. Clearly that was incorrect. Since there is a data room open on Corrib South, in the hope a Successor Authorisation could be issued, I thought it worthwhile to have a quick look at this third leg of our business.

Could someone please check my assumptions and arithmetic - the numbers look rather large :-)

Assumptions
- Corrib South best estimate, 50% attributable to PRD: 212BCF.
- Current EU gas price $35 per MM BTU (per million BTU)
- 1MM BTU = 1MCF (thousand CF)
- 1MCF = $35
- 212 BCF = 212 million MCF
- 212 x 35 = 7420 million
- =$7.4 Billion in-ground value for Corrib South.

Now, since 1MMCF gas is equivalent to 160 BblO, that is roughly 40M BOE. I have no references for valuing a gas field, but currently undeveloped shallow water offshore oilfields are achieving over $5 per Bbl. Maybe more since close to existing infrastructure. So if this was an oilfield, (currently less valuable than a gas field), it would have a value of at least $200M (£164M) on a discovery. PRD MCap - £35M.

Plus there is Ram Head, but that is a little further away from development.

This block seems to have changed hands quite a few times, making definitive information difficult to find. Apparently 15 wells were put in in the 1950's, but I can't find anything on flow rates. The Miocene Herrera turbiditic sands are the main oil reservoirs and are underlain by Cretaceous marine shales which are the main oil source rocks. Oil reservoirs occur between 500 and 3,500 feet deep.

3012 Ha in the southern onshore basin of Trinidad, located along the western flank of the Rock Dome Anticline, north of the Moruga West field and west of the Inniss-Trinity Field. A 2010 resource estimate gives 1.1MMbo, but I have no idea what level of likelihood this represents, nor how the figure was derived.

From NS Energy, 11th September 2018:
"In July to August 2010, T-Rex drilled the Snowcap-1 exploration well in the Licence and performed a flow test in February 2011 during which time the well flowed 29.5-degree API light oil at varying rates from 1,100-1,450 bopd and gas at a rate of 2.2 MMCFG with final flowing pressure of 1,180 psi. Two subsequent extended production tests later produced at sustained rates of approximately 250 bopd on 7 -12/32? choke size (in 2012) and at 80 bopd oil (in 2015) with an emulsion mix due to possible water influx from a deeper sand. It is expected that the well will resume to flow and produce at a fluid-rate of around 100 BFPD with the extent of the water-cut from the well being unknown at present given that it is over three years since the well last flowed. When natural flowing pressure decreases, artificial lift can be used to increase production during this appraisal phase of the field."

I guess we have to wait for the promised CPR for real information.