Member Info for KeithOz

That's reasonably encouraging - the CSAMT has clearly picked up the actual Kronos mineralisation, and a distinct signature should enable other mineralised Ngwako/D'kar contacts to be identified on KAV's ground. Slightly disappointing that the area being drilled is synclinal, not an anticline, since most eceonomic mineralisation in the KCB is in the steep sides of anticlines. However, KAV appear to have identified the other main potential location of mineralisation, which is directly above potential fluid conduits - of which there are several in the area being currently drilled.

I suspect that the sedimentary structure was not what was expected - a syncline rather than an anticline, which means the potential Ngwako/D'kar contact is deeper than anticipated, hence they are drilling deeper. Hopefully that deeper drilling is heading directly for the contact zone directly above a conduit. We shall see in the New Year.

We know the rig, wellheads, etc are already at Guercif. It's the small (but equally important) stuff that is holding things up. Let's look at the progress over the last couple of months, and see what we can make of it.

RNS 8th November: "The exact date will be determined by when all pre-ordered drilling materials have cleared Moroccan customs in the coming weeks. Materials have been sourced from Canada, Egypt, France, the UK and the Middle East"

RNS 24th November: "Commencement of MOU-2 drilling currently projected for mid-December 2022. All remaining well inventory and drilling materials on way to Morocco"

RNS 13th December: "Pre-drilling procurement and delivery is now almost complete. Upon the conclusion of this process a firm spud date will be announced. This will be later than the previous guidance of mid-December as some remaining well inventory was delayed as a result of having to be trucked by road when previously negotiated transport by sea was withdrawn at short notice."

So what would have come by sea, but is now being trucked? You can't readily drive a truck from Canada, so it must from (in order of trucking distance) either France, UK, Egypt or other unspecified Middle East. If I was moving something from the UK or France, I would truck it to Morocco anyway. But I would choose to ship from Egypt/Middle East, since I don't fancy my chances of getting across war-torn Libya and unfriendly Algeria.

It would therefore appear that the problem is getting something by road across the entire Maghreb, including negotiating at least four dodgy borders if coming from Egypt, more if from a ME location. Any of the miserable/critical/pessimistic posters here like to volunteer for this job, and apply your apparent expertise to expediting the equipment?

@gg2020. Reminds me of Violet in Charlie & the Choclate Factory. Dad, I want a pony. Where's my pony? I want my pony NOW!!!

Should have added that will not impact PRD's gas to industry opportunity, nor would likely use the same pipeline section that PRD would need for EU supply, although we don't yet know which power plant is going to use CHAR's gas.

CHAR has agreed to work on a contract with the government electricity & water department to supply up to 60 mmcfgd for power plant use. This will use the Trans-Maghreb pipeline. The aim is to agree a 10-year contract, no indication of pricing as yet, but would be on a take or pay basis.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CHAR/moroccan-gas-sales-principles-agreed/15752905

@Dai & @ITV - thanks for your kind thoughts - here's one for you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dknp2NXmY50

@Dai (NOT HE1) - The company you are talking about has predominantly thermogenic gas produced from high organic content, much older strata, which have undergone high temperature and pressure conditions in a deep kitchen, and the gas so produced has then migrated up into the reservoir. There is also a possibility of additional biogenic gas produced from the organic content of the reservoir rocks in situ, but this is likely to be of little commercial relevance.

@Dai. All the cos's for the various prospects are several years old, and pre-date even the first lot of seismic re-interpretation that identified Tai as a must-drill prospect, let alone 2nd round of detailed seismic, shallow EMT, HSSI, drilling with multiple gas shows, and Qemscan of actual core.. At the time those assessments were made, there were only the most basic assumptions - nothing was actually known about migration, reservoir trap or seal. All these are now confirmed, which gives close to 80% cos. The remaining pieces of the jigsaw are gas concentration and pressure, which were the parameters that could not be measured first drill round. If you want to take that as ramping, feel free.

@Rd14. Welcome aboard. As others have said, there are plenty of people here with a self-serving agenda - particularly short-term traders trying to talk the share price down in order to make a cheap entry, or even to profit from a short. If in doubt, click on the poster's name and have a look through their posting history, they often pursue the same strategy across a number of different shares. You may wish to confirm that I am a real person: https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342

The Hannam & Partners report did suggest a 28% chance of success, but this did not take into account that the Ta1-1 drill and subsequent work (geophysics, geochem & petrology) has revealed a working helium system, confirmed gas migration, and demonstrated an effective trap, reservoir and seal. That move the c.o.s. up close to 100%, but of course DM is legally unable to say that, despite what certain people here would have you believe.

One thing I can guarantee - this is a volatile share, and there will be sharp moves up and down. It will require some pretty tough nerves not to sell out of fear in a sharp drop, or to sell before the value is maximised. It's your money, but I suggest you set yourself some targets now, with a clear mind before the rollercoaster starts up, and stick to them. That might be to sell half during drilling, or to hold all until results are known, or take a proportion of profits at certain levels. No one can advise you what to do, it's your money. Whatever you do, I wish you all the best for financing your long-term plans. - Keith

@Dicko. You are spot on - just about every parameter used to calculate the CPR numbers (both gas volume & financials) is on the conservative side. Just putting in numbers that can be readily justified (like MOU net/pay as you highlight) multiplies the value, putting in top end numbers for each parameter (which of course would not happen for all) increases it by an order of magnitude. @Jimmy correctly says that 150-250 mmcfd would require more than 2 wells, hence the next scheduled drill (MOU-3) is now into the same MOU-Fan gas structure, rather than into the MOU-NE oil prospect as previously planned.

Exciting times.

For those who still seem to think that incompetent PRD management are to blame for delays to drilling, this is from Pantheon's RNS this morning:

"In this booming oil market, we have encountered significant supply chain issues for equipment and materials causing a knock-on effect on our timetable".

Every O & G progress report I read says something similar, but of course the trolls know better.

@Aimster. The current drill pad needs further work for the larger drill and all the ancillaries. In the presentation at 14m 12s there is a timeline slide that shows 'civils' (civil engineering) from December through to February. I guess some road widening and reinforcement will also be necessary, if only to stop the 28-tonne trucks sinking in to their axles.

The revised programme for Invictus will obviously impact availability of the rig for HE1. These are the relevant bits from IVZ announcement of 24th November:

"The existing Mukuyu-1 wellbore was successfully deepened to 3,923mMD and continued to encounter multiple reservoir units with elevated gas shows and fluorescence until total depth (TD), proving up the potential of the Upper Angwa formation over a 900m gross interval."

"An assessment determined plugging back the existing 8½” wellbore section and conducting a sidetrack from the 9?” casing shoe (at approximately 2,020mMD) would provide the Company the best opportunity of acquiring a valid fluid sample and the ability to suspend the well for future flow testing."

"Exalo Rig 202 is preparing to plug back the existing 8½” wellbore section to seal off hydrocarbon zones and leave the well in a safe state prior to and commencing the re-drill of the upper 8½” hole section to approximately 3,500mMD. This will provide sufficient information to calibrate the deeper sections of the original Mukuyu-1 wellbore."

"We anticipate the remaining activities will require a further 12 to 18 days and we look forward to providing further updates in coming weeks.”

So they are drilling an additional 1500m, and should be finished around 12th December.

"

In the comments under the article 'US and UK pledge to maintain high levels of LNG trade':

"Much of the US gas is fracked, and the UK is happy to buy it. But the UK will not allow fracking of its own gas. Ireland takes gas from the UK through the Moffatt interconnector, so Ireland is importing fracked gas. Yet Ireland's Green Party Energy & Environment Minister Eamonn Ryan claims that he will not only never allow fracked gas to enter Ireland, but will not allow any new extraction of Ireland's substantial natural gas assets by any means. That includes gas fields such as Corrib South, which already has all the necessary legal approvals, other than Minister Ryan's signature. Total hypocrisy, typical of the false Green religion.

@Tom58. I have never called myself an expert in anything. I have postgraduate qualifications and some decades of experience in geology and business development, but that does not make me an expert, particularly not in a company where my only association is as a shareholder. I am certainly not an expert in share price prediction, and took with what I hope was good humour the criticisms of my one and only failed attempt. However, I consider that I am pretty good at spotting sour, humourless people who are prepared to distort reality in order to support their own agenda, and do so by repeating the same nonsense over and over and over.....

Lorna was quite clear that the latest geophysics has more precisely located the fault, so they know exactly where to drill in order to miss it, and of course hit the best point for the reservoir. This can be done easily from the same pad, simply by changing the angle of the drill by a couple of degrees. Even if a completely new pad was required, there is plenty of time to do that on what is already clear level ground.

@NickNorth. This is the latest Sentinel-2 L1-C satellite image. I think that MOU-2 is in the rectangular field in the centre of the picture, to the north of and directly adjoining the motorway, where in recent weeks 1/ the surface of the area next to the road has changed from white to mid-grey, 2/ a short access road (light grey) has been built from the main road into this darker area, 3/ the surface at the rear of the rectangle has also changed from white to mid grey, with possibly a shed or two erected (dark), with maybe another access road from the back (north). These are the only landscape changes that I can see in a 5km radius over the last few months, apart from work at the site originally designated MOU-2 which has appeared in the last week, which we now suspect is the follow-up newly designated MOU-3.

The coordinates of what I think may be the new MOU-3 are Lat. 34.314° Long. -3.394°

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=34.31416252005453&lng=-3.3947067271219566&zoom=16&preset=1-NATURAL-COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=20&gain=1.0&gamma=1.0&time=2022-06-01%7C2022-12-01&atmFilter=&showDates=false

God, now I'm getting it wrong! Para. 2 should read "The site apparently under preparation as seen on yesterday's satellite view may actually be the new MOU-3, recently referred to as MOU-2, and before that as MOU-4."

Not surprising we're all getting mixed up - Lonny, please issue a clarifying tweet. Thanks

@Jonmo - we don't know the actual locations of newly-renamed MOU-2 & MOU-3. I have a suspicion that the (new name) MOU-2 pad has already been prepared, and is at the location I highlighted a few weeks ago, about 5km to the west of the site originally shown on the presentation slide. This is on the north side of the motorway, immediately adjacent to it, and is approximately the same position as the old MOU-5 was assumed to be. There appears to be little there other than a cleared area and access roads. If so, this is what the last RNS refers to. I also commented at some length as to why they might have decided to drill this site first.

The site apparently under preparation as seen on yesterday's satellite view may actually be the new MOU-3, previously referred to as MOU-2. This would also be the site of the CNG plant, which explains the rather odd structures apparently being erected. remember that the old MOU-3 was going to be an oil, not gas, well, drilled in to what used to be called MOU-NE. Rather confusing switching of sites, names and priorities, but I can see the logic behind it. I would think on level dry land, it would be easy to prepare a drill pad from scratch in two weeks, in fact a lot appears to have been done already, so I don't see why this would indicate a delay.

Just my guess at this stage, all will be revealed by the start of next year, meanwhile I'm not getting my knickers in a twist, as long as they actually go ahead and drill.

In case anyone is having trouble getting the actual articles that Cube has linked:

Jan 17
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/01/346572/predator-oil-amp-gas-discovers-new-commercially-viable-gas-in-guercif
July 19
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/07/350352/predator-oil-amp-gas-prepares-to-drill-second-gas-well-in-moroccos-guercif
November 8
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/11/352282/predator-oil-amp-gas-to-commence-drilling-in-guercif-in-december
November 12
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/11/352345/moroccos-oil-exploration-attracts-euro-25-million-in-investment-in-2022