Member Info for KeithOz

@MEM, @Dai. It clearly states 150 - 250 mmcfgd, twice. That is 150 - 250 million cubic feet of gas per day. Previous RNS's talked about producing 10 -50 mmcfgd. 250mm (million) @ $16 per m (thousand) = $4,000,000 per day.

The possible confusion is that in O & G, you will see thousand written as either m or M, and million as either mm or MM.

@Jimmy - thank you, but that wasn't the article @Rosso was referring to.

Yes, I will always admit I was wrong - between 12.31 & 12.32 the ask dropped to 9.5p. Congratulations at getting in at that price, but I repeat at the risk of being a double clown, that is the last chance.

@IG. I assume from your username that you are just having some fun at our expense. The chance of buying sub-10p today, or probably ever again, is zero. No, I'm not ramping - just read the RNS, and let it all sink in - Morocco 5x larger, and sooner, plus T & T, and Corrib South.

150-250 MMf³/day. Square feet aren't much use :-)

If people (ie the market) understand the implications of this, the share price should at least double instantly. Paul & Lonny pitching in £¾M of their own cash, mid-Dec drilling of MOU-2 with increased scope of testing to follow, MOU-3 long lead time requirements now financed, and looking for a 150 - 250 MMf² /day CNG development. Plus progress on T & T.
Incredible.

@Rosso - I have seen the MWN article of 8th November, which is a rehash of PRD's RNS, but cannot find the article you mention. Could you post a link, please?

I put up the specifications of the rig and a photo earlier today. It will be finished on its current job by the weekend. From Zimbabwe, you cross the border into Zambia, through Lusaka, then over the Tanzanian border to Mbeya - main roads all the way. After that, a more difficult short hop to Rukwa. About 1200km in total.

Persian's shorts are on fire. What a shame.

Sorry, Zimbabwe, not Zambia. Too excited to notice the spellcheck is trying to change country!

Big enough for you?

https://www.exalodrilling.com/news/s/start-of-drilling-of-mukuyu-1-in-zimbabwe

It's this one:

https://www.exalodrilling.com/files/media/Files/0001/01/3778ca32545b3e7722d792ff847978c1b68524e6.pdf

Currently in Zambia.

See they filled in the blank for me! New rig (looks like a good one, probably better than the Predator), same spud date, same Baker Hughes package, all licences renewed. Everybody happy?

14th September: DM at end of Proactive interview "I'm looking forward to more regular updates going forward"

10th October: Rig audit completed, but....

22nd November: " "

@JP - be careful what you wish for! Cobre certainly shot up on first KCB results at the end of August, but have since declined by 65%.

@oldernwiser. If your username relates to who you are, you must surely know that every company drills with "prior expectation of success", but only about one in ten wells actually makes a commercial discovery. That's why the share price is at such a huge discount to what it would be if a discovery is confirmed. Pretty simple.

ITV - could it be that there are no buys or sells today because the market doesn't open for another 1 hour 45 mins?

Almost forgot - MOU-1 & -2 are 8km apart, and we know the MOU-1 reservoirs are pretty thin. I would suggest that it is very unlikely that pressure testing will confirm continuity of the reservoir - think of it as an 8km long spring or sponge, which would surely absorb any changes that might be seen from transient pressure testing of closer wells. tbh, I am also rather dubious that shut-ins / extended flow tests are likely to show much in the way of reservoir continuity, especially if you have a 300m column of gas across 30km² - running one well for 30 days is going to have sod-all effect on the pressure of such a huge gas volume.

A quick couple of points:
* During the London presentation, PG said it was necessary to take appropriate precautions in case MOU-2 was overpressured - the 10% chance of a 1000' gas column was almost a throwaway, and he has subsequently said he thinks the chances are greater than that. The nearest you can get to an actual referenced figure is the 708 BCF net attributable to PRD in the Feb 2022 CPR, which is the P10 number (meaning there is at least at least a 10% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed this high estimate) and assumes there is gas over an area of 30km². That is statistically not the same as a 10% chance. We should also bear in mind that the Feb 2022 CPR assumes porosity, permeability & reservoir thickness all less than latest estimates, and assumes only 66% recoverable. I also think the gas expansion factor of 140 used in the CPR is on the low side.

*I cannot see how PRD has the money at present to drill MOU-3 (MOU-NE). They will need to either do a quick $3M placing post positive flow testing, or else if the MOU-Fan is declared a Reserve, then they can use Reserve-Based Lending. If a very substantial MOU-Fan Reserve is declared, I would personally still want to see a result from MOU-3 before selling out - surely if oil was also proven, the selling price would be a lot higher. I guess we need to wait and see what the MOU-3 CPR says, since we have seen very little detail on this prospect.

* Since this an exit price thread, my answer is I don't know - it will either be all my holding at whatever price PG sells the company for, or top slicing at whatever the price is post MOU-3 results.

@ Shareguru: "paul johnson seems to have midas touch". Maybe you should read up on what happened to King Midas.

@JP2000. "the boy wonder still wants to float on the BSE....IMO a stupid monumental mistake" I have discussed this with Ben a few weeks ago. There is a lot of local money (much of it from diamonds) looking for a home, KAV would be an obvious choice for local passive investment, since it is very much viewed as a Botswana-focussed company. Money could be raised as either a placing without a discount, or on a project basis. Such a presence would also help government relations.
and
The key to hitting paydirt in the GRS, as with any IOCG - which probably includes I-10 and a couple of others at Ditau, is to find the right structural zones. The combination of more traditional geophysics with CSAMT appears to be doing a pretty good job in identifying these. I suspect they will use the relatively shallow (therefore cheaper) Ditau IOCGs as validation before spending big money on the GRS projects.
and
"I really cannot understand why KAV doesn't focus its activities and cash on the KCB". 37,000m of RC/DD drilling on the KCB looks pretty focussed to me. Over the last year, 85% of KAV employee time has been spent on the KCB - exploration work on Ditau & the KSZ is mostly contractors (Spectral, etc). The idea is to prove up the KCB concept, then bring in a development partner. How would you do this differently, and why?