Member Info for KeithOz

@Aimster. I'm curious as to why you think that CNG development is 3-4 years away, and why you apparently think a market cap of £350M is unlikely to be achieved. I'm always happy to consider other people's conclusions, but in your case, I don't know what assumptions you are making in order to reach those conclusions. The 2022 CPR makes a very detailed analysis of just the MOU-Fan opportunity, based on mostly facts rather than assumptions. Which of those facts do you disagree with and why? My speculative look earlier today at the MOU-3 oil opportunity was based mostly on assumptions. Which of those assumptions would you change and why?

@diss. No, using Micks numbers, corrected for reservoir thickness by dividing by 1000, $4.4Tn becomes $4.4 Bn. So yes, I am a real party pooper :-)
I only want enough profit to put my daughters through Uni, not buy the bloody place, to paraphrase our very own Michael Caine.

Thanks, Gogs. I thought that perhaps Cluff owed Kenya, hence the alarm bells. Even if it is the other way around, you are quite right, there may not be the most cooperative environment - and presumably Cluff was involved in the original import.

I would have thought it absolutely standard, especially in Africa, that DD would include both actual and beneficial ownership as well as any barriers to transfer of ownership and/or location - such as unpaid past taxes, or any future fees and obligations relating to export. I find it rather alarming that we only heard about engineering issues until this extra hassle appeared for the first time just a couple of weeks ago. Let's see if it gets blamed on Covid or the Ukraine invasion :-)

@Mick ...erm, it's a bit late in the evening for me to be doing maths, but I think you've assumed a reservoir 30km thick, not 30m. Would be nice, but 30km down it's getting kinda hot...

Hi TRSA, since I am one of the guilty parties who posts on HE1 as well as here, I suppose I'd better answer. HE1 has experienced delays, and may not begin drilling until Q1 2023 or later. PRD is due to drill in the next few weeks, which is a step out appraisal of a well drilled mid 2021. Main PRD potential can be split into Morocco & Ireland. Ireland is dependent upon the whims of apparently crazed Irish politicians, so I will not comment further on that part.

Morocco has a large gas prospect, the MOU-Fan. I'm not sure of your level of technical familiarity, but the opportunity here is summed up in the February 2022 CPR:

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/01/cpr2022.pdf

Please note that the valuation within this CPR is for a commercial (NOT geological) chance of success of only 25% - this is out of date, since PRD are following a different commercialisation route, which must be nearer 100%.

A more recent excellent summary is on Reddit, by Methodology, who also posts here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/xqaeza/prd_the_sleeping_giant/

PRD also has a larger opportunity in Morocco - the licence area is equivalent to 60 North Sea blocks, and is only partly explored. The idea is to JV the rest of the licence asap, to this end a new CPR covering one of the oil prospects (MOU-3, previously known as MOU-NE) will be out in the next couple of months.

Someone with a better memory than me could maybe help out here? This drill used to belong to Cluff, who I recall are in a financial dispute with one of the East African governments over an uncompleted project. Could there be a government claim against Cluff assets which is preventing release of the drill? That would fit with the rather opaque wording used by DM. Anyone recall the details? Thanks.

Ok, I'll be the ninny who does the calculation.

Let's make some conservative assumptions:
* One third of the 102km²prospect is reservoir-quality reef (not all would be reservoir). So - 34km²
* Average reservoir thickness of 10m (if you think it will be 50m, just multiply by 5 - easy).
* Porosity 20% (very likely higher)
* 66% recoverable (this will probably be used for the CPR, but depends on pressure, viscosity & permeability)

So volume in m³ is 34,000,000 x 10 x 0.2 x 0.66 = 44.9M m³, or 44.9Bn L

There is near enough 159L per Bbl, so 44,900,000,000L / 159 = 282M Bbl.

In-ground value for onshore resource near infrastructure probably $10/Bbl.

US$ 2.8Bn = £2.43 Bn @ fx rate of 1.15.

Fully diluted (Shares + Options) = 375M = £6.48p per share.

That is what you might reasonably expect an acquiror to pay for 100% of MOU-3. What the terms of the JV will be, I have no idea, but it will not be as originally stated by PG. More likely a free carry of 10-20% of the licence, excluding the MOU-Fan CNG business. This is a fun, speculative calculation. Do not invest based upon this!!!

If you think my assumptions are too low, for example you think the reservoir would be 50m thick, not 10m, then you are looking at £32.40p per share. Cue angry posters waving non-edible sports bras.

@Wacky - this field edge was ploughed between 4th & 7th June, has not changed since.

With £3½ total now raised, I would think that KAV are financed to discovery for KCB, Ditau & KSZ (assuming of course there is something to discover!). In the current environment, I think it is a sign of trust in the company and its projects that so much, relative to market cap, has been raised at negligible discount.

More from Twitter:

GRH
"I consider the chance of a 1000 ft gas column to be greater than stated. Make no mistake ... out there in E&P investment land... This is a mighty big thing."

My estimate for gross pay thickness is:
984' minimum
up to 1214' if drilled to stated TD.

Of course, you shouldn't believe anything I say, I was 6 days late with my forecast for the update.

Here's am interesting satellite photo from @KaMaL that I've reposted on Twitter:

https://mobile.twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1584692915032317955

Showing positions of MOU-1, MOU-2 (original position) and MOU-NE relative to infrastructure.

Yes, Nigel, for you it has all been a bad dream. Now it is time to wake up and smell the coffee.

@OilyFred. You said "my opinion this is being held back on purpose". I genuinely do not understand who could do that and how - could you please explain?

@levistubbs. Nice try to lower the share price, but most people here are capable of reading:

"The Placing includes one strategic cornerstone investor, who subscribed for over half of the Placing amount."
and
"Supported by many existing shareholders "

KAV shares are largely in very sticky hands, so if you really want in, I suggest you buy now rather than hope for your fantasy price.

@Adon. This site has become active from the beginning of October, but it seems rather far from the site given in the presentation - unless of course that was a deliberate diversionary tactic! Doubtless all will come out in the wash, but as long as they know where, when and why they are drilling, I really don't care about the exact location. What is important now is that they have confirmed it is set up ready to go.

@c357. Correct, pads & access roads are complete, I'm pleased that you understand the use of the past continuous tense. We just would like to know where they are complete!

I thought the whiff of oil would wake Cube up! The forthcoming CPR should wake everyone up - just as a reminder, from way back on 12th May:

"The MOU-NE drilling lead has now been mapped at the base of the forecast reservoir sequence with a structural closure covering 102 km². The next step is to finalise a drilling location based on defining the highest point on the structure with the maximum potential for leached reservoir development. 18 metres of reservoir were encountered approximately 2,200 metres downdip in well TRF-1 about 15 kms. to the southeast of the MOU-NE structure, beneath a zone of gas shows. MOU-NE well will be targeting a gross reservoir sequence of approximately 200 metres within which the potential for good quality reservoir is increased due to its structurally elevated position relative to TRF-1. MOU-NE is adjacent to the gas-generating basin defined by the MOU-1 well results. Oil and gas shows are present on trend to the west of Guercif in the target reservoirs in the depleted Boudraa and Tselfat oil fields and in the DGR-1 and DGR-3 wells, demonstrating an active petroleum system to the west that will be tested by MOU-NE."

MOU-3 will be targeting 35km² of a 102km² Jurassic carbonate reef with leached development - ie big holes in it, potentially filled with oil, with a gross reservoir thickness of 200m.

I had previously said that I had no intention of selling a single PRD share until a few holes had been stuck into MOU-NE. That is still very much the case.

Excellent news, at very little discount. I guess a few people here took part. We can now expect to see substantial progress on all three main projects

Since Carl's profile isn't on the PRD website, (wake up, Flagstaff) you can read it here on LinkedIn:

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/carl-kindinger-69110322

"Specialties: Carl is skilled in high level negotiations with JV partners, suppliers and principals. Financial planning and control; evaluation of projects. "

I guess this is progress, although it would have been nice to have a more definitive timetable. I still don't see any change in the MOU-2 site as given in the last presentation, it would be nice to know if the location has changed. Also very good is some hard progress on MOU-NE, especially a forthcoming CPR - that will certainly wake people up.