Member Info for karv1

No one knows how the market will respond tomorrow you have got more chance of getting it right by flipping a coin.
I suspect the bbc and other doom and gloom sites will have there sites saying Barclays struggle with it pass litigation and ppi, as profit is down from 2017 with big headlines
like its breaking unknown news and not from 9 months ago. They will add a small section at the bottom of page saying with out fines profit is up from 2017 .
I think sp tomorrow will depend on what is on offer to shareholders from board in dividends and will there be a share buy back in the future.

or A simpler way up to Q3 is 5.26 billion divide by 3 quarters= 1.75 billion even tho q4 are normally the weak quarter add together = 7 billion which is way high that 5.83 billion I think 6.5 to 7 billion would be more realistic versus 2017 350 bank levy +1200 litigation +3500 profit = 5.2 billion total for 2017 before fines tax so 23% is not going to be far of the mark I think it will be nearer 30% rise , looks like the main difference will be the Credit impairment charges and other provisions 850 million so far up to Q3 versus 2.300 billion for 2017. unless the IB has a awful or amazing quarter
. Just my view feel free to let me know where I am going wrong with my numbers.

That I think IS true but that will including the DOJ fine of 1.4 billion for 2008 mortgage fine which is a one of fine and 400 million for ppi. Jes say they should have enough to cover PPI but will be monitored in case they need more funds for PPI, with out the fines they say the profit it will rise to 23% if all the numbers are correct. but where do they get those numbers
Where do they get there numbers from A example COPY FROM SITE https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6709597/Barclays-set-reveal-profits-fall-week-Lloyds-expected-unveil-20-surge.html
(Barclays' latest balance sheet figures look set to have been knocked by further payment protection insurance costs and a £1.4billion settlement with US authorities over its sale of mortgage-backed securities in the lead-up to the financial crisis.
But with these charges stripped out, analysts are expecting annual profits to rise 23 per cent per cent to £5.83billion)
5.83 BILLION ?WHERE DID THIS NUMBER COME FROM ?
Q3 BARC own reports say Excluding litigation and conduct charges, Group profit before tax increased 23% to £5,267m and yet barc uk makes 500 million near every quarter plus barc international makes anywhere from 500 to 1 billion so where does the number 5.83 billion come from are they saying barc is only going to make 500 million in total in Q4 before tax and fines. I don,t think so , maybe im just not understanding or I am wrong but if a site uses numbers to sell a page we hope all the information is correct because we are not experts and we use this information to help make our decisions. my rant is over lol
ps I wish i could edit

What I never understand is why most experts say barc will pay out between 3% to 5% in dividend for 2019 this all ways seem to be very low to me.
Last year even with the fine and ppi up to Q3 they made returns for share holders of 5% and with out the fines ect would be near a 10% return we then have the Q4 results and those experts all so say barc is likely to have growth of 3% in 2019.
What am I missing with these numbers.even on 2/1 coverage 7% could be covered for 2019 am I being way to optimistic.

last year I,ve kind of written off.
I am hoping for A good 2019 and Q4 results should give us a rough guide on how well or bad 2019 will go.
Barc value roughly 27.2 billion.
I am hoping minimum of 350 million profit per quarter after tax and other equity which would equal 5% over the year and I would be disappointed.
700 million per quarter after tax and equity etc would equal 10% profit over the year . Would be good
1050 million per quarter after tax and equity etc would equal 15% profit over the year Would be amazing .
Then we just have to hope the board gives it back to the share holders

I still say we will not leave with no deal. Those MP’s that voted the other day for no deal to be removed from the table and defeated the government over it ,are not going to vanish and when the bill returns on 14 feb they will add admendments for a delay or custom union. Its been reported, off the record, that many Tory MP’s who voted with the government would quit before no deal happens and vote for a different option.. thats why I’m not to worried about the Barclay share price.

I think the future price after results will be more effected by what is on offer from barc board , hoping for good dividends and share buy backs for 2019.
I can,t see no deal happening now,
but if no deal = share price going down.
delay = might cause it to go up or down
custom union = share price rise
norway or canada+ deal = share price rise
new referendum = depends on question most likely share price rise
cancel leaving = share price rise

I don,t think we will leave with no deal.
MP,s have all ready voted against a no deal by 318 to 310 and on feb 14th when they vote again and mrs MAY will have nothing new, the fragile remain tory's will not follow the tory line and fold and back a labour motion for a custom union.or a delay then a custom union.
Our MP,s have no courage and see fear everywhere.

I hoping we have over sold due to brexit and share price will go up alot ,all so going by the Bloomberg tv clip a while back where jes said how the 5 biggest US banks hanged most of there excess capital back to share holders in dividends or share buy back, I got the impression he wants to copy them so if pure profits matched last year we could all be looking at 10% to 15%+ return I know i'm being very optimistic with these numbers including any share buy backs at these current prices. Hope fully no more fines and hoping they got enough to cover ppi and no big write downs.
Plus the extra pressure to pay out to keep the battered shareholders happy due to pressure from investors like Edward Bramson.
I suspect in the end of year statement jes will say it is the banks intention to give back most of the profits back to shareholders.in 2019

I think it because parliament is more likely to make sure that no deal does not happen 67% of the MP,s are remain and they showing that more and more , it will be delayed and either a new vote or softer brexit .
Roughly 33% want out ,some with no deal
30% are remain at heart want a customs union and follow through the leave vote because they feel they have to
30% want remain with new vote and hoping for a win because they think leave voters are to dumb to understand what they voted for.
7% just want remain any way possible.
Then you got the tribal vote that vote with party lines
As time runs out which of these camps will join together to get 51% to get it passed in parliament
I think investors are thinking remain will in some form which means they would have to have another vote to show the people want it and I think turn out for leave will be lower and some leave voters won,t bother as they feel there not listen to and remain will win.

I came back in a few days ago at 157 sold at 163 a while back made 9 % on psn held cash as thought the last 14 days would be bad but they been mostly up days then psn went up another 10 % kind of gutted about it , so back in to barc l have a feeling jes will try to give back most of the profits from 2019 in either div or buy backs. My average is still way higher than current share price , but the fear of missing the rise to say 190 v the paper lost to say 130 the fear of missing the rise would worry me more so back in , I have no fear med to long term in owning barc shares

When to buy. Jb16 I’m going to put you on the spot , if you was going in / med / long term what price would you buy if at all

I brought aload today mainly for the divi lets hope for a bright future for the housing market

I have sold all my Barclay shares ,I think nest 2 weeks could be really rocky and selling for such a loss sucks I lost my nerve , I still think barc will be great in long term , I have picked a some what safer bet for now tho still risky but with great divi
Persimmon psn 12.3% divi the board said they going to pay it for next 2 years at 235p then 5.5% on 3rd year 110p if my math is correct thats a near 30% return over 3 years 2/3 comes from cash held and the profits made should all so cover it as well at present levels of profit depending on housing market.in future .
gl all

I don,t think A no deal brexit will happen parliament is controlled by 73% of MPs that were remain and won,t allow it . The pm deal will fail when voted on and I recon there be another referendum and the question will be either remain or may,s brexit deal and remain will win by a few % due to everyone saying how bad the deal is,
there could be 2 questions depending if may survives remain or leave
and if leave gets 50% question 2 comes into play the deal or no deal. I think most remain voter will back PM deal with some leave.
Conservatives won,t risk a general election the risk are to high that corbyn could get in.
The eu won,t offer anything new they just wait for the UK to tear it self apart., even if remain was to win the EU might make us jump through hoops to be allowed back in unless the ECJ says article 50 can be reversed by parliament
only once this is settled with will barc share rebound big time I fear after dec 11 and the vote is thrown out banks stocks will take a hammering .
I voted leave with my heart but my money tells me to vote remain

Im gutted how badly the share price is doing, but is jes running the company well id have to say yes. Barclays is becoming a very healthy bank .Long term Looks really positive , The bank is now growing which is all ways a good sign. profits up and buying back preference shares. ppi will be ending next august the fraud case is now dropped. it's only a matter of time before the sp starts to head back up ,
I thought next year dividends would be 5% and hoping for 10% for 2020 + but the preference share buy back might delay that , I think 2019 will be more capital building with a bit better dividend like 4%ish and for 2020 still hoping for 10%+ but they properly go for 7% and then pay out more the year after so they can say the are raising the dividend in a sensible way as long as bad debts stay low. ,that when the share price will really start to head upwards.

Performance measures excluding litigation and conduct1 % Change
Profit before tax 5,267
Attributable profit 3,544
Return on average tangible shareholders' equity2 11.1%
Cost: income ratio 62% 64%
Basic earnings per share2 21.6p
for 9 months and maybe add another billion for q4 = 4.5 billion near 16% return plus saving of around 300 million per year from those 8.25% redemption . total assets 1.170 trillion from 1.131 tho investment bank could of done better , I can,t see a reason why this stock won,t be paying 10%+ divi or share buy back per year in the future once everything setlled and sorted

I'd be curious to know the percentage of share holder's that actually look at the sites with chat message boxes. I bet it is fairly high, even without including corporate or maybe they do as well. I know when the price is going down or up a lot I am looking at chats and news I find on google from many sites etc..
What if you could combine the total percentage of all share holders that looked on these sites into 1 voice? What
percentage would we wield and influence we would hold over the board! lol I can dream.

I still believe this could be a winner last quarter 1.4 billion after tax and at moment no more court cases and they think they got enough for ppi . IF they can maintain many more quarters of 1.4billion give or take 10% will equal 5.6billion per year on value of 32 billion ,I for reckon they will match Lloyd’s divendend in 2019 while building there capital up and I think 2020/21 will pay more out .My future prediction is around 10% + percent return Either div or share buy back on today’s prices and by 2022/23 if they maintain the 1.2 to 1.4+ billion per quarter after tax and1 billion + plus other equity etc.
Profits from the USA 40% and the uk 60% if Brexit was to go badly it might get a bit rough but the pound will go down a lot v dollar and that USA profit will go up a lot plus the capital that’s in the USA dollar

Can anyone explain in more detail what this actually covers on barc 2017 end of year report
Non-controlling interests in respect of continuing operations 249m
Non-controlling interests in respect of discontinued operation 140m
Other equity instrument holders. 639m ( this one always seems to be very large is it preference shares?)