Member Info for karv1

The flu has been around for years and comes in big waves this virus is new and has just started .Day by day the odds of it being kept confined go down as it spreads out still with low numbers
Flu infection rate 1.3 and deaths rate under 0.1 %. With the flu say 3 percent may need to go to hospital.
With limited information on the New virus infection rate is 2 to 3 some even say 4 ie People that will get infection of 1 person and Death rate 1% and in wudan if spelt correctly which was hit hard Is Near 5 % death rate and with limited medical help at start of out break . On Chinese numbers 21% are serious or critical of the currant infected numbers and Total infected number 17% have or are serious or critical from all reported cases. Could be. Many that are not counted tho.
This could be way worst than the flu
Imagine this the was able to grow in time to flue numbers . The 14000 deaths could be 140k deaths on a 10 x death rate to flu and more infectious

Yes it is looking Better at moment for China if the numbers are correct. but it is still getting worst globally. Short term I am wrong only time will tell if I am right longer term

Iron ore at the ports has gone down from last weeks high if I have read it correctly still 144.55 mt lower than this time last year high so things seem to be improving a bit.
Is china being honest about the virus numbers in Beijing there are 375 cases going up around 10 a day on a population of 18 million yet the one that came here from Beijing had the virus what the odds of her being number 11 of that day out of 18 million? I know there could be other factors.
Cases are increasing slowly in the rest of the world but are being handled tho it seems china Japan Singapore hong kong are losing the battle slowly.
Talk about the butterfly effect possibly a boy/man in a dirty old market place on the side of the world trying to sell a bat for 20p for food to a possible outcome that could cause so many to die and millions to lose their jobs and possibly even a global slow down costing hundreds of billions even a trillion by the time this has done it rounds.

You could be right but I am going to wait in the shadows , new case in London tonight , I read some where they came back from China a few days ago no idea if true I would love to know why we have not stopped all flights to China for at least a month.
I am happy people have made money. Tho I don’t ,t think it will last tho so far I have been proven wrong.
Things are changing very slowly 2 shops 1 around lunch time and 1 tonight both Sold out of hand gel maybe just bad luck or signs of things to come.

I was giving my thinking behind cashing out. I agree people over panic and fear create more fear which will affect the markets.
if any of that stuff I said was to come true the markets will fall, eventually, it will become the new norm and bounce back in 3 months 6 months a year who knows.
If I was to invest now in say 20 stocks over the next 6 months will I lost a lot of money I am thinking the answer will most likely be yes. in my view.
Risk v Reward at the moment it looks I over panic with my stocks selling but time will tell if I am being foolish or wise I am just going to play safe for now and hold cash.

I need an edit button my grammar is shocking

I totally agree with everything you have said.
My heart hopes for everything to improve this virus could be very dangerous for some friends and family.
My head tells me this virus is like an unstoppable train that is going to have a big impact on us and the global trade, they could close the border but they will not and many thousands if not 10s of thousands that get this virus will die.
I think the market will fall a lot in time. plus the American market is already overpriced compared to the EU markets. unless we get a very hot summer to help kill the virus or A vaccine that is rushed through.
The negative view I have at the moment is not shared by the stock market. I can see bus companies or train companies even airlines struggling or even going bust.
In the UK/ The west we never had anything like this virus in modern times, high street shops that are struggling this could be the final straw as even more people will buy online.
The NHS struggles with 0.1 death rate of the flu and between 40 to 60 extra people a week needing to be admitted in the winter, how will it cope with extra hundreds to thousands of patients needing to be admitted per week.
Worst case view I know it sounds far fetched at the moment but I look at what's happening in China and what's the world going to look like in 6 months.

The sp held up fairly well compared to the rest of the miners.
The virus seems to be self-sustaining numbers growing slowly in the rest of the world and 34500 infections now from 550 on the 23 jan and still getting worst day by day in china. Some said a while back they may affect china's growth by a small amount then 2 weeks later Some reports suggest this could lead to a global recession. what will be said in 2 weeks time
Commodities could be in for a real rough ride.

Looks like I miss judge the market response badly as it nearly 6% up in 2 days .
With infections going up 20% every 24 hours and the death Toll going up 10% every 24 hours, even with the lock downs .
i would think people would be bonkers to invest in any share other than medical equipment companies, the market disagrees with me , lets just hope this virus does not hit the Poor large cities like Mumbai

I predict that 90% of FSTE stock will be down from this point in 3-4 weeks time unless people stop worrying about this virus, at the moment it is mostly over there and not here thinking in most people's minds but this could change.

When all the Chinese go back to work, all the mild cases will spread the virus and in 7 to 14 to 18 days time we will get an even bigger spike not counting the rest of the world.
No one really knows how weak or strong the virus is yet compared to the flue or how bad it could get, tho it seems to be very contagious, so many unknowns. I think we going to have way more bad days than those good days in the next few weeks. my 2 pennies worth.

I am out of every share gl all.
This virus could turn the stock market into a nightmare.

Let’s hope iron ore does not crash

I like FXPO the price should be way higher the results are going to be nothing but stellar going by the iron ore prices in 2019.
The only 2 downsides are that if the SP follows iron ore prices and if prices crash so could the SP like all miners but add this to the unknown risk still involving the ex CEO, time passes and we forget but it has not gone away. What will that outcome be and could assets be seized however unlikely this maybe it is still not impossible. Is why the SP is not 250+

with the swiss tax changes are you still paying the 35% swiss tax?

2 years lol what cloud did that number come from they not. Going to go from 50 million profits to a lost and unable to pay debts interest in 2 years on high margins on cheap items with well know brand , The internet will struggle against Card as they are low end cost prices. Even with rent x 1000 v postal x 100 of millions , all shops might be gone eventually but 2 years is impossible unless some unknown factor comes into play.

half of it seems some what rigged against the normal joe blogs. Pc ,s run the market half the times pc v pc v human . I could do a big sell or buy and it never shows on buys or sells due to it being broken up in smaller chunks by broker i suspect.
Never seen any of mine that I could say Are mine on buys or sells list and there are all so either a lot of hidden offers/sells that we don,t see on level 2 or it is those darn super pc,s that are super fast .When ever I do a buy or sell magically a better buy or sell appears with in mini seconds . My 5 p worth Karv the expert novice. It is all a learning curve .

normal over reaction This will back back at some point. Dividend covered by 1.5 after tax at 9.2% excluding specials , debt is somewhat high but well under control I’m in. Gl all

Net debt 56 million before the 100 debt bond if it is counted as part of the net debt was taken away and the 300 million from Bovis if paid and if it was with no tax. best case 344 million cash and worst-case unknown.
Any news on that 100 million claims they were trying for a while back from those losses. the monthly debt was around 200 to 250million I think but the overall net debt was -56 million if I read correctly, either way, I'm in with some at 136 let hope tomorrow is a good day.

panicking causes more panic if people stopped selling it would only go 1 direction nothing changed since this morning

I never understand why people would sell with a 70% loss in 1 day, unless you think it was going to go bust