Member Info for karv1

If a takeover was to happen that would be the best outcome a 1075+ million offer even if it was all shares from someone like Redrow but with the way Brexit is I would imagine it would be very unlikely.
It would be a brave housebuilder to risk it I am even surprised Bovis is risking it with uncertain times ahead. maybe that is why bovis is doing it now unlikely to get anyone else trying to outbid them.

Every morning at 7 am I check to see if there any announcements, every day I get disappointed.
I wonder if anyone with any power at GFRD ever looks at the 2 big share chat boards to get a feel on this deal that been offered, probably not.
Maybe the large shareholders are telling GFRD that this deal is great.
A lot of corporate head offices have those share price boards showing their own share price live, if they have one they should of notice the share price doing rather badly.
I would have thought with the share price dropping like a rock we would have had some response.
Is it a 75% rule for takeovers?
Maybe there is 25% of GFRD shareholders that don,t own Bovis shares that will stop the deal.
Then there is all so the money trap with anyone that buys at these prices over the next few months, will likely say yes to the deal for the quick buck or to try and gain back some of that last 10% drop rather than possible further falls if the deal is turned down. tho that is uncertain depends how the market viewed the deal.

copy posted from other chat.
It is all about the power and control, on the 950m Bovis shares and 100m debt taken, shareholders would have walked into the sunset fairly happy. GFRD would be far more diminished but should be ok with 44million in cash after the 100m debt is taken back and they might win 100m in claims, but the deal now with a token extra 25 million gives the power /control /300 million to GFRD board.
GFRD board has been telling us that construction is mostly sorted so why does GFRD need 300 million. why not 975 million in Bovis shares the deal as it stands FEELS VERY VERY WRONG.
I would rather they just split the company up if they had to. linden and partner could be worth more than Bovis in 1-3 years as we make more houses and more money.
We got an 8% dividend even with the huge losses from construction. I doubt,t we are going to see that from Bovis. once sorted we could be getting 14%+ on 2 x cover if construction is sorted and makes money.

My humour needs some work. anyway I should have said 4.5% rise since the offer, not 7% you have to laugh on days like these or you go insane.

shareholder asks What planet is CEO/bod living on?
first, offer 950 million only in Bovis shares rejected soon to be followed by the second offer
Second, offer 950 million in pure Bovis shares and taking the 100 debt most shareholders are celebrating they are going to make 40% plus from current share price and own a company with 44million in cash with the chance of 100m in claims and the shareholders are popping the champagne. offer rejected as not good enough........ for whom?

Third, offer 1075M a mixed offer 675 in Bovis shares 100 debt and GFRD keeps 300 m plus the chance for 100 claims and sitting on 44 m in cash, offer greeted very warmly CEO/bod think this is a far better offer for shareholders.

Shareholder starts to scream at the pc in despair, the CEO goes on to say how excited he is about the future.

shareholder says we were so close to making lots of money who put these people in charge.

CEO/BOD probably thinks they deserve big pay rises and a bonus for doing such a good job.

Shareholders still trying to work out if he even going to make any money. and wants to know how the CEO/BOD can be FIRED.

CEO/BOD scratching there heads not understanding why the share price has only gone up 7% looking confused why do shareholders not under we getting 300million.

Shareholders scream at the confused CEO/BOD how is 300 million sitting in GFRD bank better than 275 million sitting in shareholders bank.

CEO/BOD still don,t understand and thinks about how they going to spend the 300 million.

Shareholders hold there heads in despair.

CEO/BOD is popping the champagne.

If this deal was to go through and if everything goes well and we get the 300m + 100m claim + 44m cash after 100 debt taken away, we could be sitting on 444 million cash in the best case scenario if i have added up correctly. I had thought kier or costain would be good targets. or give the money back to shareholders.
I would imagine it would be more of a merger with kier or a messed up deal like the one we getting don,t think there be enough for a takeover and the debt to be repaid. Kier is likely to lose money for next year or so.
Costain or someone else may be a better choice at least they have money and make money.

I just recall reading it somewhere back then it might have been on that site but found it tonight on
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bovis-and-galliford-urged-to-revive-deal-x8d3h9ljj

on a side note can anyone recommend a good level 2 site, I use to use moneyam some time back does anyone use lse?
I'm using limited free advfn at the moment.

Sunday times June 2nd
Investors in Galliford Try and Bovis have called on the FTSE 250 housebuilders to revive a deal after merger talks collapsed.

Fund managers at JO Hambro — the third-biggest shareholder in Galliford and the eighth-largest in Bovis — said that a combination made “strategic and industrial sense”. They urged both boards to “consummate a transaction”.

Bovis approached Galliford last month with a £950m all-share offer for its Linden Homes division and regeneration arm. Galliford rejected the bid, claiming it was too low. Both sides subsequently said they were no longer in discussions, although the Galliford board is thought to be open to further talks. Had the deal been accepted, Galliford’s struggling construction division would have been spun off as an independent business.

I suspect other joint institutional investors think in a similar way. lol you put 1000 people in the same type of gold fish bowl in the same type of buildings meeting the same type of people every day you normally get the same the response from these people. it is a bit like when CEO/BOD gets big pay rises or a bonus when a company has done shocking yet it is vote through.

I read somewhere GFRD is 88% owned by institutions

That makes it worse after the deal is signed bovis will get 4% extra shares and 4% cash after the deal is done if I read correctly.
So we can expect a possible 8% drop after the deal is done, on the share price not counting how many GFRD shareholders decide to sell as well.
I did well out of GFRD from the big crash when Carillion was being used as an example of what could happen I looked at the stats and thought I see a long term future here it was well oversold. I could just sell again is uncertain times I know with the limited information I have I don,t like what I see that is on offer at present. id be curious why people in the Financial press are not asking the GFRD bod why is the share price sitting at 659 if the deal is a good deal. as share price is only up 6% since the 9 of September price 619.
The 300 million is the huge unknown factor I have finished moaning for now.

I need an edit button.
As someone on adfvn chat has posted.
my shares x0.574 x 1101 + 35p = more than current GFRD value if I have added up correctly, which makes the market value of construction arm as a minus, so either the market thinks this deal is dead or that construction has a negative value. either way it does not sound like a great deal to me.

The problem with this deal is there is a lot of ifs and buts and when and maybes with the deal.
lets says it is now next year
a) if construction is sorted we have a company that inc linden 160m profit and partner 35m+ profit and construction i am guessing 20+ million profit, making in all around 200+ million profit and paying 14% dividend and banking a chunk of money. in time will smash the 1075 billion offer while having good dividends.

b) construction not sorted d merge construction from linden and partnership keep the 190 million making part and let construction keep the return cash if it happens. and I would imagine the linden partnership company would be worth well over 1 billion + we have a construction firm. Maybe float it and we might get some money or sell it to costain or give it away.
OPTION C) get taken over by a company that makes less profit than us where future returns will be share out 30% for us and 70% with bovis and with less money being returned long term is my view . and we be left with the part of the company that has a terrible track record of late that is holding all the coins. with a lot of if, but, and may be, not only that but with the shares we get from bovis what going to happen to the bovis sp in the first week when there is 30% more bovis share on the market all of a sudden.
I would rather option (a) or (b) over option (c) I can be patience.
Institutions that own both would rather option c the deal, due to the fact that even tho they lose out on GFRD but gain a great deal for bovis so it will evens out and together they will make cut save money and the new bovis will be a far stronger player. but not for GFRD only investors.

I think GFRD need to tell the share holders what there plans are if any for the whole 300 million with this deal. It would be great if we got most of the 300 million but I don,t think we will see any of it.
I live in hope the deal is turned down unless we see 100 or 200 of the 300 million returned to share holders this is what will make or brake this deal in my view.
I was thinking if some one like Redrow came along and said there 900 million in cash for all of GFRD I would be saying yes before Bovis mix and match deal of 1075 million.

There goes the 300 million lol

my be a duplicate message last one vanished did blackrock sell a load?
big drop at end

I am mostly back in I thought today would be a bounce back I should of waited longer.
I thought about it as you said we get dividends 35p plus 0.574 per share on 1059 or 675 million worth or with current sp 690 million and with roughly 37 million in dividends = 727 million which is only 14 million short of current sp then you have GFRD .so unless bovis sp drops we going to make money from current share price if i,ve done my adding up correctly, but anyone with a higher average the deal starts to look worst the higher the your original sp buy in was. I am still hoping the big investors say no.
I have not seen anyone on here yet that says this is a great deal for us. all i ever see is people saying i am m going to hold and see or it is a bad deal.
You would of thought the big investors would be hinting to the board the same thing.

I sold average selling price of 699 Gl all I might return if sp goes down,
The deal short term has been great ,long term I am not sure. and it is 99% sure it is going to happen unless bovis sp crashes.
The big unknown factor is brexit and we are only 6 weeks away and it is not 100% sure that we are going to get an extension.
I think GFRD could handle a brexit fairly well with a 2 times cover on dividends and future profits from a sorted out construction and linden and partnership to counter lower profits if there is any drop in house prices . Now tho we are link at the hip to bovis .

my 0.04 holding will be a no vote if i am still holding , we make way more money than bovis with out construction.
bovis sp all ready fairly high and it is not going to get much higher.
GFRD sp was half bovis price with more profit with huge prospect for far higher sp as times goes on could of even double in time and the board has shown very little faith in the company they are running and should not be running it.
It kind of feels like a sell out

what do people think of this deal good or bad ?
I think if everything goes well on all sides it could be ok but there are so many unknowns.
Bovis new shares 29.9% and 9.99 for fund raised if I read correctly . will take Bovis to around 2.1 billion value ,Bovis profit 144m GFRD no construction profits 194 m total 338m on 2.1 billion value with 16% return on current valves. If the share price does not drop .plus new gfrd unknown value .
GFRD alone 190 m on valve 780m value at moment with no construction 25% return
if construction is now fixed great even more profit if not sell it Keep the money making part .
There is no reason GFRD could not be higher value than Bovis in time.

Is why Bovis is trying cherry pick the best bits we are very cheap

Share priced already done it 50% crash people are looking for no new bad news other than what is already known