Member Info for karv1

I think this is over sold , risk v rewards as long as they keep making anything like 100 million per year even if was 40 million and they cancelled the dividend as long as they start to bring the debt down and I think the board understand this. is why they said future dividends would be 50% and if the new ships and the new Goldman sach idea and the fix 3 year contracts pans out profits could even start going up .
high debt bad news of any kind = alot fear in today market place even while making money
fear = share drops a lot.
Low debt while making money bad new share drops some.
Low debt while making money no news share will generally rise.
I would not sell for a 50% loss unless I believed the company is doomed I don,t believe it is but that a call everyone has to make on there own I think fear is running the share price at moment

I personalty not bothered about good will write down id rather they took a bigger hit the other day, so it is not dragged out I know the banks probably use it to asses assets v Liabilities but as long as they can get debt down and make anywhere near 100 million profit per year on 366 million value over the next 2-3 years this company will be in very good shape . 10% dividend you would only need 36 million tho id rather they focus on the debt first .

I think no and I think 300 million each tho I was not on the chat when they were brought probably says some where in past results for exact cost the rest I paste from results The Group has extended the term of the revolving credit facility to May 2023.
The Group has amended the covenants in the revolving credit facility and term loan. The new financial
covenants will be tested against the Group earnings and net debt excluding the earnings and debt
associated with the new Cruise ships. On this basis the net debt to EBITDA covenant is 3.5x until August
2021 and 3.0x thereafter.
The Group has committed to an additional financial covenant that the Cruise cash flows will meet the
Cruise debt service costs. This will only be tested if the Group (ex-Cruise) is within 0.5x of the Group
covenant.
There are no financial covenants associated with the corporate bond.
Cruise bookings and per diem rates remain in line with expectations for both 2019/20 and 2020/21
departures. Each new ship is expected to generate EBIDTA of £40m, and profit before tax of £20m. This
should lead to materially higher cruise earnings in the next two years.

If I have read it correctly the company still expects to make between 105 and 120 million profit for 2019 and between 1st February to 18th June 2019, they said that they are broadly going to meet expectations and with 4.5 months gone it is a good sign that they will roughly reach that profit .MY personal choice would be they stops dividends for 2019 and pay 100 million of the 380 million debt which will take it to 280 million with 180 sitting the bank then the debt would look very manageable , the ships by the sounds of it will pay for them self's over time.

This company could be amazing very long term 50%+ yearly profits at current prices.
This company could be terrible and lose my investment.
How many profitable part will be sold off.
It would only take a few bad contracts to push this company over the edge. If they equaled what was being made through selling of the assets over the next 24 months , there is very little room for mistakes they need to show the banks that they can start to reduces the debt by a reasonable amount by 2022 if I understand it correctly.
I think it is more likely to survive let's just hope they don't sell of all the money making parts.

GFRD just brought a small house builder whats the odds of them borrowing the money and going for kier housing group

hi all is the dividend pay out on 50% worked out before or after tax on profits?
On the cruise ships when will the cost be added to the 380 million debt and how much is still to pay i read some where about a 12 and 15 million payment on installments and the total cost of 300 million each to buy is this correct ?
this might be a duplicate post first one disappeared thanks for any info

There you go a response GFRD turned down BOVIS how will this effect the share price?

Bottom of the sky report says Bovis and Galliford Try both declined to comment on Saturday it says .
I know it is looking into the exact wording but if it was false would they not just say so..
Did they decline to comment or could it just be that none have replied to Sky as no one is in..
I would imagine the press officers would of been on the phone with in 2 mins to the CEO after the story broke on both companies.

Is this possible Britain's Bovis approaches Galliford on possible merger -Sky
or just old news?

Looks good to me 112 to 120 million after exceptions and then back to normal next year no huge skeletons in the closets.

If the new CEO is to be trusted lets hope that 30 to 40 million is some where near the amount they come out with tomorrow.

bovis / taylor / crest / red / psn all been down over the last 5 days average yet GFRD has been up this could be a very good sign.
People losing there jobs is never good ,but it is all ways the way that people at the top screw up make money and move on and people at the bottom pay the price which is very unfair.
May be the new CEO is more ruthless or saw a bigger picture than the old CEO and wanted to sort this out a while ago but was told to follow the company line from the old CEO , but now he is in charge he is sweeping out the house for a fresh start.
If it works we keep it and if it don,t we get rid of it.
Even tho the business has been haemorrhaging money on construction jobs it is very hard to grow when your business is shrinking.but it can make it a leaner machine.

As I said I would be happy with 24p
The company did say 2 x cover was before pre exceptional items on last dividend so it could be higher .
borrowing your rose tinted glasses for this view

Boshybear if 40million is it and there was no more costs I’d be very happy with 24p final dividend because the following year would be like 10% to 15% returns .I think GFRD is well over sold due to panic

I would just say get the construction side sorted or removed and focus on homes and partnerships take the 156 million profit per year say 125 million after tax with out the construction profit or losses being counted . Pay 56 million out in dividends as a minimum so 10% return which is amazing and would be easily covered by 2 x and use the other 69 million to build a cash flow in case of bad times and to grow the company, hence grow the dividend which will raise the share price
I would say there is no need for a merger more likely a takeover target.

What do people think the odds are of GFRD going bust from what I have seen I think it is fairly safe but the share price keeps on falling, do people know something that I don't or is it just people over reacting from the bad news causing a domino effect of selling, because everyone that is selling is most likely making a huge loss.
In 1 to 5 years time this share price will most likely to be double in value or would have gone bust and I can't see anything so far that suggest the company is in any real trouble the CEO says the cost are 30 to 40 million even if the construction legacy cost 200+ million 5 to 6 times their estimates over the next few years (real worst case)and I can't see that being the case , we have a company that has a value of 560 million making 180 million profit a year before tax.

Total profit with out construction section is 180 million pre tax profit for a company value at 589 million. I would say are amazing figures with 126 million debt even if the dividend was cut to pay back loans and sort our the construction write downs then build up cash in the bank , I am happy they are sorting this out.
For future the average ftse is dividend say is 4.5%
5% of 600 million value = 30 million this could be covered 4 times+ after tax once the construction problem is sorted
I see many positives

Once the panic has stopped these will bounce back the construction contract side is not the bigger earner for GFRD and comparing to Carillion is a bit far fetch .
GFRD 100 million+ profit after write down of 40 million and 120 million dept which is going down with 1 bad contract v
.Carillion lost of 1.1 billion with 1.5 billion dept and the dept ballooned many bad contracts before collapse

Jb or bru stop insulting people and rubbing people the wrong way when they have made the wrong calls on buys and sells, I get lots of things wrong so do other people including you. no one wants to see it , it just stops people from commenting and I would like to see other people views not just your insults at other people.
anyway lets hope that something is agree tonight and tomorrow will be a good day.