Member Info for KarlTaylor

Company in strong position and increase in trade in H1.
Energy costs handled well.
Carlberg Marton Brewery set up and making money
Property estate worth £2b
Easter and Coronation coming, plus summer trade.

Reasons why an aggressive take over is both needed and can succeed.
The BoD should have taken the offer of 100 from Platinum last time.
A bear hug could work this time easily, publicly offer 60 to 70 a share and force the BoD to the table to close with an offer of 80.
Any investment company will be in this for the longer game (5 years +), as such they can spin the business round and asset strip to make a ton of money on the rising tide in the future.

what Agro are doing is great, building holdings in companies that can Cap X fast.
However, the hunger for new products/markets is being held back with the current lords of capitalism squeezing the last juice out of products and services available.
good buy and hold, however now looking at some time before a great pay day on this share.

you handsome devil!

thats what i'm saying, there is a big dip is coming, the city (LN/NYC), are about to drop the whole market, be ready :)

shock first, fear second.
one big new short position and dropped by to 780's easily.

its cloudy, it sunny.
there are a lot of people holding shares at 60% profit that will easy be shaken out.
:) :) :)

Now would be the perfect time for a bear hug takeover by Platinum Equity.
They could easy acquire the company now for less than 60 a shares (they offered 100 last time).
The BoD could be forced to take the offer will the share price is down here.

could see one more great shake coming across the market.
Gives a good dip opportunity here.
Company still needs to show it has turned a corn back to profits and reduced debt.

re-read the notice from Carlsberg-Marstons, they are only now putting up the prices in line with industry, they had held off for as long as possible, so they will be roughly the same costs as other breweries.
also the demographic that visits marstons pubs are asset rich and have maintained their pub visits.

Paying back loans is actually bad for the finance sector, they make money from rolling debt.
Considering Marstons owns 40% of Carlsberg Marston partnership, and owns £2b worth of property, getting cheap refinance will be easy against their assets, with banks in China and US able to loan cash to undercut BNP easily.

Also we are now seeing the Carlsberg Marston partnership develop cost reductions.
So expect profit margins across the pub estate and brewery to increase over time.

@Fairtrader, the debt is a non issue, do you understand debt commitments?

from: find-and-update.company-information.service .gov .uk/ company/00031461/filing-history
Page 143 of borrowings: £1b of the debt does not mature for another 5 years!

Actual debt that Marston's have commitments to over the next 2 years is only circa £320m

Read "MARSTON’S PLC RESULTS FOR THE 52 WEEKS ENDED 1 OCTOBER 2022".
go to : marstonspubs .co. uk /docs /financials/2022/prelim-year-end-2022.pdf

• Final 10 weeks of FY2022 like-for-like sales were +3% vs. 2019 and +4% vs. 2021
• Increase in pub operating profit: £115.4 million (FY2021: £5.7 million)
• Improved share of CMBC’s profits: £3.3m (FY2021: loss of £(14.5) million)

Positive cash generation, debt reduction and NAV increase:
• £26 million net cash inflow from operating activities; underlying net cash inflow (excluding one-offs) of
£48 million
• Continued progress with debt reduction strategy: net debt (excluding IFRS 16) reduced by £16 million
to £1,216 million (2021: £1,232 million) despite the one-off £22 million net outflows.
• Property value £2.1 billion, representing an increase of £93.4 million vs. 2021
• Net asset value (NAV) per share increased by c.60% from £0.64 to £1.02 since October 2021
• £9.9 million generated from non-core disposals; disposals 40% ahead of net book value.

Marstons are worth multiples of the current MCAP!

the major of business are debt laden at the moment, with covid making it worst for a lot of businesses.
however, given that the valuation of marstons based on assets minus debts is around £2b, there is a lot of potential up side here.
Considering the business is recovering and paying off the debt they are in a strong position.
I hope another takeover bid comes for around £1.5b this time and gets accepted.

Based on their last report and looking at this coming year things look very good for Marstons:

Like-for-like sales for the 16-week period to 21 January 2023 were +12.9% vs. FY2022.
Total retail sales in the Group's managed and franchised pubs were up 14.0% on last year and up 7.3% vs FY2020.

The Group's electricity costs hedged until the end of September 2023, with no change to earnings guidance.
The Group's gas price is fixed until the end of March 2025 with no additional incremental spend anticipated.

Andrew Andrea, CEO, commented:
"Whilst we still have certain cost challenges to navigate in 2023, we are well-positioned to continue to progress our strategy and are encouraged by the level of consumer resilience experienced to date.....
Marston's pub estate is well-invested, and our geography and proposition lends itself to benefit from underlying consumer trends. Whilst still early in the New Year, trading momentum continues to build, and our primary focus remains to meet our strategic goals of achieving £1 billion sales"

the estate properties are worth £2b
the pub business is making £40m a year net profit
Marstons own 40% of the Carlsberg Marston partnership worth about £500m

Current debt is actually £1,216 million (see Preliminary Results for 52 weeks ended 1 Oct 2022 RNS)

Taking into account debt they still have a valuation of around £2b.
£2b / 660m shares = £3 per share.

retail and entertainment as a whole is drifting down with the usual post xmas pre spring lull.
Nows the time to load up to make money on the spring/summer rise for those sectors.
marstons in a great position, £2b property, and the Carlsberg Marston partnership.
even with debt considered this company should be worth £2b, about £3 per share.

Lots of big buys compared to only small sells now.
Market getting ready to move back up towards 100's with spring and summer.
Xmas 2022 was 12% higher, making sure that this FY 2022/2023 will be great for Marston's!

New Carlberg Marston's partnership now set up and profitable.
Property portfolio worth £2billion.

now they have seen how easily this share can be pushed down they will attack.
on the plus side that means getting some shares a bit cheaper than now.

Massive buy just been passed through, looking at the trades prices at time this appears to be a buy:
Date/Time: 16-Feb-23 @ 14:17:25
Price: 40.0425
Shares: 1,543,331
Cost: £617.99k

time to load up!