Member Info for Kando

Pfen, you make the same post every day. Any thoughts on why you do this? Shares on the stock market go both up and down, even when they might otherwise be more broadly moving up, or down. You get the same answer every day but you keep asking.

More or less speculates that business travel and thus long haul air travel will never recover because of zoom, which is a fairly daft assumption given zoom and video conferencing existed before covid, and no-one seems especially keen on continuing to rely on it indefinitely after covid. It can't truly replace trade shows, business conferences, working lunches, court appearances or simply one of the perks of getting top talent in a job - that of expenses paid business travel.

Also claims there's buzz in the city about a merger or takeover, but similarly explains why it would likely never happen.

The journalist's math seems slightly off (and altogether absent) on how the business will burn through the rest of its substantial liquidity, and seems to appeal to much larger government intervention, which at this stage seems far from required.

It's not "in effect a completely new virus". At all. In effect it's the same virus from which all currently available vaccines protect against severe disease, hospitalisations and deaths. That one vaccine shows diminished efficacy at preventing mild and asymptomatic cases, does not mean it's a new virus, nor that the larger vaccine roll-out won't successfully prevent the deaths and serious illness it would have otherwise caused. The A/Z vaccine lacks data from lack of older test subjects to conclusively say it protects from the SA variant, but similarly structured vaccines like the J&J conclusively do, so all indications are that the A/Z vaccine will as well.

protraderx was saying the same thing when Boohoo dropped over the slave labour scandal in July last year. No sooner had he said it Boohoo went on to rally 80% over 3 months.

Reading reports from airlines, and aviation consultancies around the world re: 2021 expectations for flying hours and passenger numbers, there is a consistent feeling that by summer of this year we will see numbers "near normal" given the vaccine roll-out continues as it has so far.
I believe a lot of investors were rightly spooked by Rolls revising its expected flying hours down to 55% from 70% for this year, and from that, investors then extrapolate that maybe that means next year might only be 75% and then 90% and so on the year after until it eventually returns to 2019 levels.
A more realistic interpretation is that this year's flying hours are divided into the 4-5 month period of abysmal single digit international and much reduced domestic travel under global travel bans, and the following 7-8 month period: post-vaccine, unlocked world, when the aforementioned "near normal" summer emerges care of pent up demand, much reduced global case numbers, tourist and business mainstay destinations having their vulnerable groups fully vaccinated, and fast and accurate airport testing regimes. From there that "near normal" is likely to carry on and approach normal, not regress again after the summer, or into next year. So if "near normal" might be 90% capacity or greater, then next year might be 95%, and the year after 100%. A much more tolerable financial position for the airline industry than the assumption that next year might be some middle ground between 55% and 100%.
That's why, in my opinion, going into April-May, with lockdowns lifting in Europe, America, and elsewhere, we ought to see this share rerate towards the recovery very soon, given that markets usually begin to see the writing on the wall much earlier than the event itself.

He has explained them, but unfortunately they seem to be based predominantly on anecdotes of him being convinced air travel would return to normal last year, and they (unsurprisingly) didn't, and other (spurious) assumptions about vaccines being useless.

Otherwise he's just content reminding everyone here, every hour of every day, that he wants to buy in at 50p.

It's really regrettable for Rolls staff, losing a fortnight's pay - not good at all, so it's not a cause to rejoice, but the markets generally quite like proactive cost cutting, so it wouldn't be surprising to see this ultimately finish blue today and perhaps the start of an upward swing this week, with all things realistically foreseeable now priced in.
It means nothing to post price targets and expectations, but I'm still quite comfortable with the idea of seeing 150p by April, once sentiment invariably swings (at least temporarily) positive towards the summer lull in case numbers.

That's fine, but you seem to be willing on a virus in order to get a buy-in price you've decided you can afford, based very loosely on reality, and mainly on faulty assumptions and desires. There's no accounting for morality in trading stocks, but be careful how enthusiastically you champion your predictions, given the implications of what you seem to want.

Fortunately or unfortunately, you were in the minority in thinking that, so I'd caution against using that anecdote to guide your judgment.

All fair points, except that broadly, people knew that winter would be hard, very few thought it was over, in the stock market or elsewhere. Hence the volatility throughout.

If the vulnerable have to be vaccinated every 6 months then yes, they will probably be vaccinated every 6 months. It is hard to see how that would be much of an issue.

I think the majority of holiday destinations will also have vaccinated their vulnerable groups by summer: USA, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France etc. Sure, it's unlikely India, china, African and South American nations are going to be there in that time scale but they aren't really the core tourist destinations.

Yes but that was wholly predictable and not unanticipated. This time restrictions will be eased as the clinically vulnerable are protected by a vaccine. Of course there's always the risk of new variants that evade the vaccines entirely, but the virus ought to evolve mutations less frequently the smaller the global case load, so even that risk will diminish marginally into the summer.

This share is just waiting on government plans for hotel quarantining. I think sentiment in the travel sector will change quite rapidly once there is more certainty, either way, on that issue. I would guess it will be more soft touch policy, as before, with quarantine restrictions on countries with high case loads of "variants of concern", but a resumption of travel corridors with everyone else - which ultimately wouldn't prevent a return of summer holidays.

Global daily case numbers have halved in the last 3 weeks, and are looking likely to fall rapidly in the UK and US as well. I think once the market starts feeling better about this summer, which I think it will, soon enough, then rolls will see a substantial bull run. If I was to guess, we'll see that begin in the next fortnight or so.

It wouldn't be surprising if it finished back at 104 today.

It looks similar to the movements on Dec 1st. So, holding gains but flat for the rest of the day around 108, up to ~114 tomorrow morning, drop into lunchtime from profit taking, then up and over 130 by Thursday! (The last part might be overly optimistic, but it does look to be the start of a decent rally all the same).

At least it appears to have strong support at 104p. Bounced up from it 3 or 4 times this month, which suggests there's not much appetite to let it slip any lower, seemingly regardless of any news. So hopefully with a bit of fair weather it's all upside in the short term.

Autonomy, but what's caused that? What is it a reaction to in the last hour?

What's caused this collapse in gold in the last half hour?

What a bizarre rant. Brexit talks continue + roll out of vaccine in US. That's bad for gold. It's not manipulation. If and when it's conclusively a no deal brexit, and if and when american stimulus is approved, then that's probably good for gold. It's not manipulation for a price to rise and fall on daily news.

From tomorrow and "into the weekend" does not mean today. Judge it on Monday's share price.

I think it's fairly obvious to everyone that there will be no last minute trade deal, but for whatever reason it's not yet fully priced into the market, given that it still bounces around on the cyclical abandonment and resumption of talks. Come tomorrow, however, and the inevitable impasse reiterated in Boris and Ursula's meeting tonight, one might expect to see a decent rally into the weekend for both gold and this share. Over $1900 gold, and above 135 here.