RE: Announcement On Monday .... Thoughts Please2 Apr 2021 23:37
I won't be buying back in at these levels glenn. I think the limited upside potential isn't worth the downside risk in the short term. Even the hypesters on here acknowledge the very specific and very narrow hoops the world needs to jump through just to achieve the 55% engine hours projection for this year. The numbers don't add up when the rest of the world is riding up a third wave. Vaccine passports won't cut the mustard yet with those countries attempting to remain covid-free like Australia, China and New Zealand. They will still require quarantine and won't risk reinfection that easily.
What countries that have done well vaccine-wise - the UK, Israel, do not make up for the rising case numbers, new variants and lacklustre vaccine programs elsewhere. I'm still wary that this share might visit the 90s again, and it wouldn't take much to test the 80s from there. Could be wrong, no-one can really predict the market, and probably if you buy in now, the others are right, you'll be up in 3 or 4 years time (barring RIs and government bailout), but it's whether you want to hold that long, and through those unknown variables. Short term, I'll hold off, because outwardly, it doesn't look like the bottom and I wouldn't feel comfortable holding while reasonably expecting it to drop.