Member Info for Kando

@smalltrader

Just a couple of corrections.

In the UK 32.3m have received a vaccination, with 8m of those receiving both. 40m doses have been administered, not to 40m people. This equates to 47.6% of the vaccination having had 1 dose, and 12% having had 2.

"Actually one negative news today was about spike in infections in India, Germany and Brazil." I've been posting this for 2 weeks, it's not news today.

And no, covid isn't very "mild" and the deaths are not "low".
578,000 have died in America alone, when only ~20% of the population had evidence of having been infected, which is more than America lost in all the wars it was involved in throughout the entire 20th century combined.
That's before you factor in the cost of long covid affecting another few % of the population.

It's curious how easily and readily you all seem to downplay and disavow reality, just to cheerlead a share price. What's worse is that you all seem genuinely confused as to why the world has shut down, like it's some kind of media conspiracy, and not a genuine attempt by governments to shield their health services from being overrun, as they are now in Brazil and India.

Not really, you attack the poster, not the point. All my posts have been relevant to the share, yours was not.

It's not outlook - it's stating facts, which seem so often to be notably absent on this board. You might favour baseless ramping, but you'd be costing people money if they take it without a huge pinch of salt. Nothing that's said in this forum will ever impact the actual price movements themselves, so stop taking exceptionn to every post that counters your agenda.

"No negatives seen" is such a bizarre thing to say with the pandemic hitting a new high, rising faster than it's yet done before, and safety and efficacy problems with multiple vaccines.

Of course the CEO of easyJet is pushing for summer holidays.

Boss of company hemorrhaging money wants company to stop hemorrhaging money... is not exactly a revelation, or news. A CEO's aspiration doesn't trump the facts of a global pandemic that is as close to the beginning than it is the end. He can be as bullish as he wants, but central governments make the decisions, not him.

Bold assumption, I'd counter. What basis do you have for this Q2 recovery? 2022 Q2?

Nobody's claiming 32p, but the share price today still does not reflect what is materially happening. It's inflated on the hope of a broad unlocking and at the very least, trans-atlantic flights - this summer onwards.

Agreed Hindy. Could be an opportunity to buy in <90p again, although it's hard to price in the cash burn of another year without long haul. There will be some minor to middling recovery later this year but not enough for cash flow positive, so perhaps we're looking at <75p now for fair value. Very difficult to price after this transient and illusory "summer holiday" unlocking hype abates.

Yes. I don't think we can agree when the data is seemingly irrelevant to you. Anecdotes and false equivalences don't usually withstand contact with the real world.

Those are some gymnastics of logic. There's a lot of false equivalences in there.
Simply put, in absolute terms the pandemic is about to surpass every previous peak, and every new infection is a chance of a mutation that takes the virus further away from the action of the vaccines.

Moreover, every country with rising case numbers is either already excluded or will be invariably removed from any green lists or travel corridors. The cases are going up *almost* everywhere in April, which is not going to allow for the big global travel easing this summer that airlines and rolls need.

160,000 cases a day... in a spike on the graph... is not a spike? Okay, and the other dozen countries listed?

Sit on your hands then and ignore the warning signs. Good luck to you all.

The reality is there are entire fleets of aircraft still grounded, many of them wide bodied aircraft with Rolls engines, generating no maintenance revenue. Hence the current cash burn. Reaching a positive cash flow position, whether anyone here likes it or not, does depend on the revival of long haul business and leisure travel. What's currently flying is not enough.

"Kando I know you like to say negatibe about this stock, could you please point me out to which country is peaking up "

Scroll down to the daily new cases graph on each of these:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/turkey/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/argentina/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/colombia/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/philippines/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/bangladesh/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/****stan/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

All of these countries and many, many more have very high and rapidly increasing daily infection numbers.

Even countries like the US and Spain have increasing rates. Will the US really be on the green list at 100,000 daily cases a day?

So, unless Malta, Iceland and Portugal constitute the majority of long haul business and leisure travel around the globe, there's quite a few reasons to be cautious about Rolls Royce's near term prospects.

96p. Global cases peaking again, major long haul travel hubs included. Summer holidays and especially business travel on hold, globally, until very probably next year at the very earliest. 10-20%+ fall from here as the market rotates back to risk-off stance.

"The seven destinations **likely** to feature"

Likely... not officially.

Good for cruises perhaps, bad for long haul travel. In my opinion the US isn't *likely* to be on that list, with a rolling 7 day avg of 68,000 cases per day and rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Looks like thiscould be the gap fill down to ~1600.

Still a little more bearish. Think it has yet to dip back below 100p.

Global case numbers are, this coming week, about to exceed any previous peak, and are not yet showing signs of slowing. A recovery in global long haul is so vanishingly unlikely this Summer, or even by Fall and it's not unrealistic to expect a seasonal uptick again from variants in the Winter.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Next year seems the more likely timescale for a substantive recovery.

I think, more or less, RR have the liquidity to survive without further RIs, just, but I think there's plenty more short term SP weakness possible.

Even for the UK, which has lately done so well, a major concern has to be that a sizeable part of the vaccination campaign has been with the astrazeneca vaccine, which has ~10% efficacy against preventing the spread of the south africa variant. The south africa variant is already here, and will stay, and as the vaccines suppress the other strains it's not unreasonable to expect the SA variant to become the dominant strain, and requiring, very soon, a renewed booster regime to combat a further wave this autumn. Which will take time again, and undoubtedly dampen the speed of travel easing.

I tend to agree that it appears more like the top of a trading pattern than the bottom, and looks to have some gaps to fill in the 15-1600s before it'll move on elsewhere.

I think it isn't a free lunch. I think there's plenty of scope for it to fall given that long haul air travel isn't likely to recover in months, but more likely years, given the current global wave, and lacklustre vaccination rates elsewhere.

What exactly is your point and how's it relevant to your double spam post earlier?

Neither. I hold no position there.

How's that relevant?