Member Info for Kando

Frankly it could be a mistake not to. The higher these countries allow their case numbers to get again, the longer they will inevitably need to lockdown again. For RR, international travel is a two way street, both ends of the flight need to be open for business, not just one. Case numbers are rising precipitously again globally, not just in Europe. Just as today they're reporting a "double mutant" strain emerging in India, it's not inconceivable more strains ever more removed from the action of the current vaccines will emerge. The reality is, only a little over 6% of the world's population has had at least 1 dose of a current vaccine so far - and it's taken ~4 months to get that far. It's progress, and it's good to be hopeful, but it's hard to be as bullish around Rolls' prospects now that the numbers are going back in the wrong direction - which will invariably hurt the flight hours for engines. I do still hold some RR shares, and hope for the medium-long term recovery for the company, but there should be some caution and reappraisal when the facts change. The world this share operates in is not the same as it was 2-3 weeks ago.

True, I got it wrong at 117, but I got it right at 128, right at 114, right at 108 and again at 105. I report what it's done before and the reality is that it is now in a downtrend, therefore it's relevant what it did the last time it was in a downtrend. My posts do nothing to influence price. I'm saying what I've done, and sharing an opinion on where I expect it to go, which is what a forum is for. If you need constant panglossian ramping, you should do it with yourself in front of a mirror. It's pointless here. People are trying to make money, not declare unending loyalties.

I think it's more likely to see 97 today, than 110. It looks identical to the bounce at open on 12th November. Big 15% swings in that one hour, then plummeted into lunchtime down to 91. It probably won't go that low this time, but still expect it to try the 90s again today.

Good bounce but already seems to be running out of steam a little. Without any news to justify it, it could just be a dead cat bounce. Has anything materially changed since close yesterday or even the open this morning? Would suspect we'll see that appetite for testing 100p re-emerge later today.

@billston - Do you still plan to buyback at £1.02, or do you now expect it to go lower than that?

105.3 close. It's not really clear if it's going to hold that or not tomorrow. It might, but the momentum really still seems against it. 5% down every day for 4 days. If it had reached bottom you'd expect it at least to taper off a little by now.

Will be interesting to see if it holds above 104 this afternoon and tomorrow. If it falls through it'll be back in the 90s after that.

Yeah, I wouldn't say 108 is the right time just yet. You might be right, but the short term news forecast isn't great for that to be the bottom.

I am looking at around 80p for a buy-in. Not sure it would go any lower than that, but neither could I be sure 90p is the bottom, given the % drop the last time it dipped and the current momentum it has.

Well, the broad movement is the same as 9th - 12th of November, except over a much longer timescale. It peaked near 130 before slumping back to 90. Vaccine hype met the realities of the second wave in that instance, and maybe, more or less, the same is happening again. Vaccine success meeting the reality of a global third wave.

Perhaps a little brave. How can you be sure this is anywhere near the bottom of the dip?

I expected there to be a little bit of a bounce before now, even if just temporarily before resuming the decline, just to show a little resilience, but it seems to be sliding all the way, perhaps back to 90. Really hard to pick a buy in price or really what fair market value for the company now is, with so many unknowns.

Not sure how you can blame the management. To follow your analogy, it's like blaming the manager if the stadium is torn up by a hurricane.

My guess would be 104-105 would be next to be tested. Fell right through any other support levels this morning with seeming indifference.

Not sure that's necessarily true. I think £1.20 might be at least a month or two away now. The concern is that it will have another look at £1 or even the 90s in the meantime. If all the news is negative: summer holidays ultimately cancelled, global case numbers rising, yet more new variants and the lag before we know the existing vaccines are effective against them, and if they aren't? Another 6 month minimum vaccination campaign?

There could yet be some good news and it's not all as bad as that, but I'm just laying out the current plausible trajectory that the market is trying to price in, which at these prices, it still hasn't fully done.

I think it's clear now that the market is beginning to digest the fact that overtures around the summer holiday/international travel timetable have not been good. The vaccine roll-out in tourist destinations will not quite be in time for summer, and the suppression of new waves worldwide will involve many more months of lockdowns in key markets.
Further, so long as global case numbers are rising, which they again are, the likelihood of vaccine resistant mutations occurring increases, which would set it all back further still.
RR will very probably survive, but the timetable for recovery might be getting pushed back by all this.

Have just sold. Worried that US open will see it plunge back to testing 108 support. American airlines and Boeing are down a little pre-market. That it tested 108 this morning is probably not a good sign for the next week.

Because eventually it will bounce back up some, and that might well start on Friday.

Sticking with £1.20 open, brushing £1.23-1.24 into lunchtime. Negative sentiment has been tempered a little over the weekend, and the last two trading days saw it oversold.

The last big drop in January would suggest it might reach ~80p by ~Thursday if it follows a similar trajectory over a similar timespan.