Member Info for Kando

You don't seem to understand how a rights issue dilutes the share price bvcxz70.

There are now far more shares in circulation, thus it changes the pre-RI equivalent price.

£8 - pre-Rights Issue. Important distinction.

Yes I appreciate that solid snake, but that's contingent on it actually picking up. To vaccinate and revaccinate for every resistant strain takes at minimum, hundreds of days per country. Even at the current fastest rate (which america is achieving) of 1 dose per 100 pop per day, a two dose vaccine takes 200 days to vaccinate the full population, and 100 just to do the most vulnerable 50%. Most countries will trail that pace for a long time yet, and will take years not months to vaccinate a meaningful amount of their population.

And that list excludes countries with already high numbers, but are relatively flat, and not rising - like Brazil and the US .

Except that's an almost baseless statement. If you ACTUALLY look at the rest of the world, it's not looking all that fantastic elsewhere.
A list of countries with rapidly increasing cases:

Germany
Turkey
Columbia
Argentina
India
****stan
Iran
Japan
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia

And there are many others on that list, but those are the bigger countries with precipitously rising week on week case numbers.

Yeah, insane. How could it not return to normal when a border closing global pandemic has just exceeded daily case highs?

All these things you were warned about 3 weeks ago, but chose not to react to. In fact many on here were actively and aggressively hostile to having the information posted.

Now yes, all you can do is hold. A cautionary tale against wearing rose-tinted glasses in a darkened room?

Yeah, I agree. Good advice. Just listen to the news pfen. Lots of companies facing an existential threat. You'd be very brave to make assumptions about the long term.

I think it still depends on the course of the pandemic. I think Rolls have liquidity to outlast a lacklustre 2021, but not much to last into 2022. Either way, the cashburn this year has to be added to the debt when calculating a fair share price for Rolls. Clearly the current trajectory for this year is closest to last year's worst case projections and really, it's hard to price Rolls above maybe 70ish pence and be comfortable holding. The risk of further RI and government ownership is really unknown given the longevity of the pandemic is still broadly unknown and subject to too many variables to predict.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56797829?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=607d3e00a6498102e7e49326%26UK%27s%20travel%20green%20list%20likely%20to%20be%20%27very%20short%27%262021-04-19T08%3A33%3A29.019Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:3c747860-8702-4038-8895-ee1d236346cb&pinned_post_asset_id=607d3e00a6498102e7e49326&pinned_post_type=share

summerImage caption: Gibraltar is likely to be a possible destination this summer
Gibraltar and Israel are among the most likely destinations to be placed on a green list of countries which it will be easiest to travel to, a former strategy chief at British Airways owner IAG says.

Robert Boyle says told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that, judging by the UK government's criteria, it might be a "very short list".

As well as Israel and Gibraltar, which have vaccinated most people, countries such as Australia and New Zealand may be placed on the UK's green list but are not likely to allow entry at the other end.

Places like Iceland, Ireland and Malta have a good chance of being on the green list and maybe the US, he says.

France has high levels of infection, while rates in places such as Spain and Greece are not so bad but still above the UK rate, so Boyle says he would not put them on a green list.

But for those wanting to get away this summer he adds that airlines will "move heaven and earth" to put flights on to places travellers are allowed to go to.

If that's what you've heard Glenn, then that's for you to reconcile. Stripping everything of hypotheticals, ifs and whens, you've convinced yourself that people are claiming what they're not.

If that's how you feel then filter my posts, as I do the other hopelessly cheerleading spammers. I post the data and articles. There's no spin necessary. You clearly choose what you want to hear.

You'll not stop anyone posting information which has a bearing on this share, on a forum dedicated to discussing the price movements of the share. This isn't your personal echo chamber. It's your money, do with it as you please, no one else cares.

Thanks for your ever relevant and useful contributions shadowfall. You're another who's seemingly yet to post anything factually related to this share. Picking squabbles, deriding posters and being hypocritically overly precious isn't contributing. Added you to the filter list, you just add to the spam.

There is "no evidence" because there is no data, at all, yet, to say either way, not because there is data saying the Indian variant won't get around vaccines. The absence of evidence should not be used to reassure people and lull them into complacency.

It's semantically true, but isn't useful.

https://www.rt.com/news/521090-india-mutant-variant-covishield-vaccine-covid/

"“The Covishield (AstraZeneca) vaccine, when it was tried in the South African variant, was no better than water,” Sarin told India Today. He warned that India could see a “surge” in cases that can be tied to the South African strain, in which case “one vaccine may not work.”"

It didn't seem patronizing, but might to someone who has no useful response to his post.

Inky. They're the "LTH" sort of investor. They choose to wear blinkers. They choose what they want to see. They expect what they'd like to expect. You can show them facts, data, any bit of evidence that might contradict their expectation, but they choose to disregard it.

It doesn't really matter. Do what's right for you. If you expect it to fall and your ideal timescale of involvement is short, sell and rebuy lower. If you're happy to hold long, hold long, but it might mean that it takes longer to reach your target relative to had you sold and rebought. But of course it all depends on your conviction that it will fall.

Personally, I agree with you, I think the share has much yet to fall given the global relapse in the pandemic and the impossibility of long haul travel (based on seemingly inevitable political decisions to come) recovering to a place that would see Rolls cash flow positive this year.

The AstraZeneca jab offers as low as 10% protection against the South Africa variant. How do square that with what you've just said.

Moreover, vaccines tend to apply evolutionary pressure on a virus to mutate. At the moment we have a virus that is out of control in large parts of the world, and we're similarly applying an evolutionary pressure on it to mutate away from the function of vaccines.

There's no room for vaccine complacency here, variants can have a massive impact, hence why brazil and south africa ditched the astrazeneca vaccine early on (pre-dating the safety concerns).

Moreover... letting variants in WILL necessitate further lockdowns. So you can't have both this year. You can't expect the virus to remain under control at home, while jetting off to pick up variants from abroad. So if you want easing at home, the sacrifice is foreign travel.

If you want foreign travel, you'll have protracted and repeated lockdowns at home. That's the choice governments are having to make here.

It's not about what I want the governments to do. I, like everyone here, want the pandemic to be over. That's not got any bearing, nor really should it, on what governments will do. They have to act in their country's best interests, and presently that unfortunately means long haul travel is a huge irreconcilable risk, that would leave them very exposed to being labelled irresponsible.

Most people questioned why we kept the UK's borders open and accepted passengers from flights from Wuhan and Italy, sans testing, early on in the pandemic. The same will be true when there's variants like the seemingly formidable new Indian variant, in addition to the Brazilian and South African, floating about.

It's not as simple as merely wanting air travel back. It's going to require some time, that's all. Investors here need to appreciate that and stop expecting £1.30 end of april, £1.50 by july, £2 by whatever date, because realistically it's got further to fall than rise in the short term.