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Moreover, Silver and Gold seem to be charting different paths, with silver now much weaker and much more reluctant to rise.

Slightly odd things are happening. Dollar index is approaching 6-12 month highs while treasury yields plummet. Last time, at the end of march, they peaked together, now they're rapidly diverging.

If anything like last year's movements related to covid uncertainties: PMs and Miners will rebound fastest and surge beyond the rest of a floundering market. The stronger dollar this month is still holding PMs down, but the dollar will capitulate soon, as it did before.
The dollar just seems to be out of sync with, and lagging behind, reality, given that US case numbers are surging, and will likely carry on past the rest of the world again, given resolutely low vaccination rates and what will be a political reluctance to reintroduce restrictions again early enough. It's likely to force, ultimately, continued stimulus and QE going forward and a still weaker dollar.

The gold price graph looks like the last drag down before another step up. The last few times: April 14th, May 4th, May 13th, it's dropped quite sharply at the end of a period of consolidation and then launched upwards $70-80 up to test the next resistence level. Expect mid 1900s into next week.

CPI data hitting expectation was perfect for gold. High, but not so high as to spook the market over rate rises. Just a steady increase in inflation that flies under the fed's radar of intervention strengthens the case for PMs. So with bond yields sliding, rate rises still beyond the horizon, PMs will carry on up into the summer.

Patiently waiting until Thursday. Another big CPI reading and gold will motor past 1950 into next week. Eventually miners' share prices will benefit from this. Eventually. Debt reduction moving into substantial net cash positions and sustained high PM prices - beginning to be hedged into the future. Eventually they will rerate to reflect this. When? Who knows.

Carv. I believe it has the potential to be the opposite. If NFP smashes expectation then the market goes back to worrying about overheating -> inflation fears -> good for gold.

Last month, it missed spectacularly 1m vs 266,000 and PMs and metals suffered that day.

It's probably a bit goldilocks in the sense that there are points on the scale that would be good for gold, and others bad, but not necessarily linearly. Huge miss, bad. Huge beat, good. Minor beat, possibly bad? (Strong jobs = earlier tapering and rates rises without overheating fears).

There's a lot of moving parts to figure out how the market might react to a broad range of outcomes, and for differing sets of reasons for each outcome.

NFP data could again be a bad day for metals, but it'll soon be May CPI which ought to be a better catalyst.

Treasury yields down again, so PMs should rise into the afternoon. Promising that Fres is already green. Could close up a few percent again.

I think everyone is just sitting on their hands at the moment. At current metals prices and accounting for production issues, this really ought to be closer to 1150. If metals continue their rally as one would imagine is likely for the next 6 months, then perhaps 1500p isn't an unjust expectation. The trouble is, no one could attempt to call when these sweeping moves might happen, so it's just an exercise in patience.

I've reviewed Millennium International Management LP's recent short positions and they seem to be adept at picking the wrong stocks to short:

MCRO - declared a short on 15th March at 485p...the share rose to 587p within the fortnight, up 20%. Position closed.
BYIT - declared a short 19th March at 414p... it rose 10% the very next day(!) and carried on up to 523p...up over 25% in the following month. Position closed.
REDD - declared short 13th April at 342p... it rose to 394p, up nearly 20%.

They seem to be in the business of donating money with their shorts. Superficially, sifting through all their short positions in the last 12 months, they've (potentially) made money twice, and lost money on two dozen. It seems like it could only be algorithm prescribed hedging of a larger long position they've taken.

That they've shorted Fres, given what track record is available to the public, suggests that there's at least a 20% upside in the next few weeks here.

10YR Treasuries back in the 1.50s, so might see gold test resistence today. If it can break through 1893-99 and hold then mid 1900s would be the next step up.

I broadly agree, but the fed will not tolerate 13% inflation. They will start repositioning if it reaches 5, and by 6 or 7% expect heavy rate rises to control it.

I'd guess that it's squaring up for another big rise at 14:30 up to ~940, as it did on the 6th and 17th. A pattern of dropping at open, a long period of flat trading through the morning, then launching on US open.

Yeah that must be it. Silver chasing it up now anyway.

Well, to be honest, if, a few weeks ago, when we were at 885p Fres and $1770 gold and $26 silver, someone had said we'd be at $1900 gold and maybe $29 silver (once it catches up), who would have bet Fres would have been 10p down at 875? It's gotta be working towards £10-11 now, it can't, surely, ignore these PM prices. There's no reason it won't be a short, sharp 10%+ daily correction though, especially if this purported index related selling pressure finally abates.

Could anyone speculate as to why Gold is now trading at new highs, but Silver hasn't recovered a third as much, and still trading $1 down on highs? Why the disconnect today?

It'll be suitably bizarre, but this'll probably close at 960 and certify the absurdity of Fres price movements this month.

ha

US 10 yr drifting back down again so PMs ought to recover. Currently, Fres seems disconnected from the upside from all this index selling; it drops as PMs drop, and can't seem to gain when PMs gain, but eventually it has to. Gold is still over $100 up on less than a month ago, and Silver $2 up, and yet Fres is now well below where it was even in the same timeframe.

It can perhaps endure this for a few more trading sessions, but not much longer. Eventually it will become the best value stock on the FTSE, with the biggest near-term upside potential, if it isn't approaching it already.

"Just be careful gold price same as pre covid and yet this share is 865 v714 !!"

Bizarre comment. Gold price is much higher.

It hasn't been moving with the price of gold and silver - at all. No idea which charts you've been comparing.

I expect that would be premature. It won't ignore the steady rise in gold and silver forever.