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Fed expects inflation to HALVE next year. The rationale for that? Who knows.

They've been wrong throughout the crisis on inflation. Very wrong. And they don't seem to be getting any better. Everything should be telling them wage inflation is here and is becoming entrenched. They can't pursue a mandate of full employment, against a backdrop of record vacancies, and not expect wage inflation to become the driving and sustained factor in inflation. To assume that supply chain issues will evaporate next year is a big leap, but to further assume companies won't continue to be forced to raise wages to entice or retain workers from a smaller labour pool is fairly myopic or deliberately disingenuous. As long as there are so many more vacancies than qualified people willing to fill them, wage inflation will burn hot.

Fed tapered as expected, increasing to 30bn. Federal funds rate projections are substantially higher though. 0.9% next year from previous projection of 0.3% and 1.6% in 2023, from 1.0% projected.

Gold and silver seem to be reacting quite well. It seems the market had been pricing in a move that was even more aggressive than this, which would explain all the recent weakness.

Anything less than the expected acceleration of the taper to 30bn will be good for gold. Any dovish, more cautious undertones to Powell's speech will be supportive. We'll see how much the fed considers omicron a threat (it seemingly isn't much of one, but it might overreact like the UK has), and whether that massive jobs miss changes their outlook on the health of the labour market, the other part of their remit. If they surprise and hold the taper at 15 then gold will have a good month.

I think anything less than the expectation of an acceleration of the taper to 30bn will be fantastic for gold. Anything signalling a more cautious, dovish afterthought to the inevitable tough talk on inflation being taken seriously will be go for gold. Accelerating inflation readings colliding with more hesitant central banks, that's the ideal from a PM PoV.

Wouldn't say there's anything wrong. It's testing its key support level in a market rife with FUD. Very few shares, miners or not, are doing well so far this December. Cey has value, market conditions will improve for it in time.

The result of the PFS for Doropo is due early next year, with an initial conservative estimate of 5.3 million ounces. Yes Cent is still presently a one asset producer, but there's substantial potential between the Doropo project, Batie West, ABC and the further 3000 sq km of exploration licenses granted in Egypt. Doropo could, according to initial estimates, produce 200,000+ oz per year, with potentially similar yields at ABC and Batiez just across the border. The Egyptian license is similarly exciting due to its proximity to other lucrative veins so it wouldn't be unfathomable to think that a further ~500,000 ounce per annum asset might be found in Egypt as well. There's still ample potential for Cent to grow beyond a single asset mid cap. It has the finances to do so, and fingers in enough pies, and now there does at least seem to be a plan, even if it is in its naissance.

Well the data seems to support her. And since the UK has already taken SA off its red list, it's hard to level any accusation of ulterior motive at her. All the evidence thus far is that omicron is more transmissible but much much less severe. The SA data on hospitalizations and # of patients ventilated and needing oxygen support make the UK's response disproportionate and fairly bizarre. Looks more like a cynical attempt to distract from last week's Christmas party fallout.

Every high inflation reading elicits a drop in gold because the blind faith in the Fed is still resolute, but it won't last forever. Ackerman, whatever his motives, is right: they are asleep at the wheel. But it's not out of incompetence or negligence, they've no real choice but to keep dishing out the Nytol. They simply don't have the room to aggressively reign in QE or to raise rates. It'll only be in hindsight that the broader market says, well, our trust in the Fed to control inflation was misplaced, because they never really intended to control it in earnest. They intend to prop up asset prices, support the labour market and to allow inflation to rapidly erode dangerous levels of debt. It's the least worst option for them. They will talk tough on inflation in as much as the hawkish words themselves will have some dampening effect on its growth, but they will not materially act. Inflation readings in the US will hit 10% before the Fed gets round to its first 0.25% hike.

That's good MrTibbs.

On the technicals side, it's clearly too early to say with absolute certainty but there's a bit of triple bottom pattern forming at 83p with volumes dropping accordingly. It's usually indicative of any bearishness running out of steam.
We'll see over the next couple of trading sessions - especially and most saliently after tomorrow afternoon, but it could be finding 83p to be the bottom of this slump, which is still in the range of previously strong support.

Not quite sure what we're all so disgruntled about. The share price will recover. The update was a positive one. CEY has been dragged down with metals and other miners on the strengthening dollar and the piling back into certain riskier assets, but this will be temporary. Sure, the fair market value for CEY is closer to 105 than 85, but that's not entirely relevant. It's down on sector weakness. There's plenty to be encouraged by in the form of improving yields, maintained dividends and the prospect of multiple Gold tailwinds. This is still hovering around its support levels. It has spiked down to as low as 80 before, but everytime it has tested the 80p range in the last 5 years, it's soared back up by 40 to 100% within 100 days.

As Torna posted, there is a seasonality to it. It always dips into December, then routinely posts some of its biggest gains in january-february.

It's quite concerning that it's testing its key support levels so much, but so long as it's only for a few trading sessions, and ultimately holds around 89p, then I'm happy to let these shares ride into the new year.

That's the point. If it breaks below 89 it's probably not going anywhere good, by the looks of it the next stop would be around the 50s or even as low as 40s. At which point it may or may not be a good place to buy back in. By your logic is there never a point at which you sell a falling share, even when the signs point to a further fall? You have to protect your capital, else what do you have left to buy the lows with? There's more finesse to trading than simply buy and hold no matter what.

There's not really any ideal number in the CPI data for gold. The markets overestimate the Fed's willingness and capacity to control inflation. A high reading and the market prices gold like the fed is going to raise interest rates to 10% in a fortnight and a low reading the market says: inflation, what inflation? Must be transitory after all...

Inflation is high and lingering, but the fed really doesn't have full use of the tools it needs to control it. The bond market is already signalling that it can't stomach rate rises with a flattening yield curve and the stock market is on very precarious over-inflated ground; uncertain about slowing growth rates worldwide, persistent labour shortages with the pursuant wage inflation, and what may or may not turn out to be short term supply chain issues.

Inflation is the macroeconomic undercurrent, that will guide gold over the longer term, but for the short term price movements the 3, in my humble opinion, main catalysts for gold are:

1) China. There's no such thing as zero covid, and after the winter Olympics are concluded, China will surely relax its draconian level of vigilance - it can't and won't play wack-a-mole with it forever. Officials there say they've only kept it up so long as to not spoil its winter Olympic vanity project (not the genocide and human rights abuses haven't done that already).
Further, the controlled demolition of Evergrande and the deflation of the property bubble there will, even if handled to perfection, surely have economic blowback in terms of slower growth, lower consumer confidence and spending which will spread, at least a little, internationally.

2) The collapse of crypto. By no means a given, but it is by most measures a bubble and bubbles do burst. It is hard to argue the utility of the combined crypto-market is worth the ~$3 trillion (excluding any derivatives) sloshing around in it. If it bursts, the sums involved dictate the splash might cause ripples elsewhere in the global economy.

3) Ukraine. Any escalation there, with variously direct and indirect conflict between NATO and Russia, is going to translate into gold. Even the simmering threat of it until the supposed January flash point will support gold in the short term.

That's my fairly bullish case for gold over the next 12-18 months. Prices will be suppressed, but suppression can only hold back the tide so much.

It's always enjoyed very strong support at 89-90p, so it's a fairly critical moment again. If it breaks down below this mark it's probably time to get out for a while, otherwise, it's opportune buying territory.

Given that the share is already sitting within a few % of their target price, one would have thought that would justify a HOLD rating.

It's still too early to tell either way, but as far as the current narrative of it probably being much milder than delta, it's probably sensible to take that hopeful thinking with a pinch of salt. The SA doctor who purportedly reported it, who cited treating a 30 something patient with "mild" symptoms as testimony to it being less severe, on the same day her government were - understandably - distraught and frantic about the wave of travel restrictions just placed on them, just seemed a little too contrived, a little too coerced, like she'd been leant on by the powers above to downplay it to limit the damage to the economy in peak tourism season. If it had been a long list of over 60s with mild symptoms and not a solitary 30 something, it might have served as more useful, albeit, still anecdotal evidence.

Ultimately it's going to take another two weeks before we begin to know the impact on how morbidity, as deaths seem to trail case numbers by about 25 days.

It will probably turn out to be nothing but it has leapt 2% in a few minutes all while ZI and ZG are drifting downwards. Is there an RNS inbound?

Takes patience. Dollar down, markets down, crypto down, inflation rising, rates low - yes PMs now dragging along with it, but they'll recover and rally quickest. It's risk off again. Safe haven on.

Well, tell that to the 90,000 Russian troops now stationed on the Ukrainian border. Cutting gas to Ukraine doesn't stop them joining NATO. This is geopolitics, not economics.

Putin clearly sees Ukraine's nearing accession into NATO as a casus belli with an expiration date. Once they're in, they're in, and they're safe, but prior to formalized membership there's going to be this awful window of inevitable escalation where Russia considers the expansion of NATO to its borders as an unacceptable intrusion on its sphere of influence.

How it's going to go is unclear but the sooner they join NATO the better - it needs to be months now, not years, if a conflict is to be avoided, but that seems unlikely given NATO's timescales. So perhaps the next best thing is withdrawing from the process completely and remaining a buffer "third world" country. Barring accession or withdrawal from talks, Russia will unfortunately probably look to play the cards in its hand - which at present, are an overwhelming military advantage against a still isolated opponent.