Member Info for Kando

Hitting the midpoints of guidance lends credibility to their guidance going forward. Slightly easier to be confident of actually achieving the promised higher ounces.

Seems reasonable. No surprises in there.

I would guess a key factor in the current sp weakness is the Omicron wave reaching Mexico. It has been dragged down a peg on fears further restrictions or absences will hit output again. So long as Mexico goes with the crowd and keeps it fairly soft touch in its response, then it should bounce off those fears like similarly exposed stocks have largely done in Europe and US.

"makes me avoid if Motley Fool tip & keep tipping!"

That's also very true though :D

Surely they've got to get something right, once, eventually... if only by accident.

"Any realist or someone with a contrary view to Carve, Kando et al weekly word salad of wrong forecasts is an alleged 'deramper' or spreading FUD."

The only forecast I've given is a 10% rise in gold from December lows into February, based on a decade of precedent. Not to dismiss your point, but 1820 is already up from the 1760 December low and we're only midway through January, and should it carry on at the same pace, would reach 10% by early February. We clearly disagree on the present book value strength of the dollar, but then if you think it's so strong, why are you buying into precious metals miners which hedge against the weakness of it? You seem full of impatience and, more than a jot of bitterness because Fres is moving the wrong direction or not moving fast enough. No one has a crystal ball on market movements, but value is always recognized eventually, even if it takes years, there's no point getting upset on any given trading session that doesn't go your way. I've been in since 775p, and when buying, I accepted that this was potentially at 18-24 month hold to realize significant returns, depending on the how long it took the market to price certain things in, which no one can predict (they spent the last year living in cloud cuckoo land with "transitory inflation"). It's not going to go up in a straight line, but (I think) it will move upwards eventually, and (I believe) the scope of that movement is larger than many other shares on the market.

"Why on earth should DXY be in the 70s and how is USD 'weaker' than EUR, JPY, GBP etc.?"

Because the US economy is, in my opinion, far weaker, and in a far more tenuous position than it looks. And yes, I mean weaker than the eurozone. And yes, I know what the DXY is.

There are lot of superficial datapoints which mask much more concerning, structural and demographic changes that aren't (yet) being seen in the eurozone. And that's not saying the eurozone isn't itself having a torrid time of it, just that the US (appears to be) on the precipice of another 2008 style day of reckoning. I see the illusion of growth but not the substance. I see an employment rate far behind its peers, that's failing to recover. I see the ECB as ultimately having far more rope and room to maneuver than the Fed, and with that room they will eek more growth out of the eurozone recovery than the fed is able to in the US, and when they finally do tighten, that's when you'll see the DXY back in the 70-80s, just like it was from 2008 - 2014.

We will invariably differ in opinion on this, I get that, and a lot of brexiteer type folks (the likes of which I am not accusing you of being) like to imagine the Eurozone perennially on the brink of collapse, but under the bonnet they are on surer ground than the (presently not so) United States.

It's something of a relief to watch the dollar index plummet some. Finally pricing in what was seemingly obvious for the last year. Inflation high, fed's ultimate eagerness to raise rates low. Talk them high, but keep them low, that's always how they were going to play it. Somehow the market got lost in all the noise and bought into the alternative reality where either inflation was transitory, or that the fed would raise rates aggressively. That the dollar index is still in the 90s and not the 70s shows what a strange and unpredictable place the market has found itself. The dollar should be, and is, materially, weaker, but the market just doesn't want to price it thus. For the first time in the last 3 months, it's heading in the right direction, which at last allows PMs to be priced more appropriately.

Moulding has been instrumental in the hype and early growth stage of THG, for which he still deserves some credit, but since the listing, he's proven to be an incorrigible liability. If he were to step down, to be replaced by someone more level-headed and less greedy/egotistical/flappable, then I think the company has a chance at a near term recovery in share price. But, if he wants to be the British Bezos and stick it out, he needs to wise up, accept the consequences of taking the company public, that it's not just his company anymore, and that he can't let pride or impatience get the better of him while ostensibly being the public mouthpiece of the company. What he expects to gain from going to the FCA is anyone's guess, the share price is where it is because of his bizarre conduct undermining the integrity of THGs long term outlook. Threatening to break the business apart and insodoing dilute shareholders just to further inflate his wealth tanked the SP, not "irregular trading".

For the second time. This is the Fres board, not UFO. Stop shilling.

Hard to impress a cumbrian apparently. S&P down 2%, Nasdaq down 3.3%. That's a fairly significant slump into the close. Crypto down around 6%.

CEY's current EV/EBIDTA is 2.11, when, as of just a few months ago, the wider mining sector was running at an average multiple of nearly 14. Whichever metric is used to measure it, CEY is signalling extremely decent value at these prices. Just to bring it back in line with other (similarly unloved) UK-listed peers running at multiples of ~5, it'd suggest CEY has a huge amount of space to run. It feels only a matter of time before value investors spot and start piling into this.

As Michael Burry said, "Specific, known catalysts are not necessary. Sheer, outrageous value is enough." (but this time we have catalysts too).

JP Morgan have issued some of the worst performing forecasts in the marker over the last 2 years. Whether they're genuinely meant to be forecasts, or cynically hefting their big brand name weight around to talk the price down while they feverishly stock up into the coming rally, well, that's another question. They often say one thing and do the opposite. So I'd just try to pay attention to what they do, and not so much what they say.

Fair enough. I had read that, but running the math it doesn't seem very economical. Their share price has slumped since they announced; market doesn't seem convinced either. Good luck though.

"UFO is the best junior silver play on LSE"

Not convinced that's true, unless it's the ONLY junior silver play on the LSE, then it would probably get there via semantics. It has no mines, produces no silver, has no track record of actually finding anything that others didn't find before them and discard as uneconomical, let alone going on to actually exploit anything. They just trickle through cash every year, presumably paying themselves handsomely for drawing circles and question marks on maps and updating the website. If they were serious about finding and developing resources they'd have to be spending a hell of a lot more than a million or so a year, especially when most of that is spent on board room wages. Its shareprice, if anything, is too high. It's essentially someone's piggy bank.

Peoplepower, you really don't need to explain. You didn't sell when it was frothy at all time highs. You held while it crashed. You finally grew despondent at 5 year lows, and sold. Now, presumably you want back in, but at, or below, where you just sold out, so you're desperately trying to talk it back down. It's a regrettable situation for you, but nothing you say here is going to change the share price. Nothing anyone says here, short of some exceptional individual act of investigative journalism, is going to make a jot of difference to it.

If you weren't interested in buying back, you wouldn't still post on this board. Just move on if you've no interest in investing here again.

31/12/2013 - 14/3/2014 1201 -1379 = 14% gain
24/12/2014 - 20/1/2015 1173 -> 1300 = 10% gain
31/12/2015 - 11/2/2016 1060 -> 1247 = 17% gain
22/12/2016 - 27/2/2017 1128 -> 1257 = 11% gain
12/12/2017 - 25/1/2018 1238 -> 1362 = 10% gain
14/12/2018 - 20/2/2019 1237 -> 1343 = 8% gain
20/12/2019 - 24/2/2020 1474 -> 1672 = 13% gain

With respect Sotolo, you seem to have misread your charts. Only in 2021, when it was consolidating (into the aforementioned bull flag) after a massive 2 year bull run, did it have a flat month of january - although it did technically rise from 1775 to 1952 from the 30th of Nov to the 5th of January (a 9% rise), so make of that what you will, it did rally, just slightly earler than previous years. You can keep going back further than 2013, Gold routinely rallies ~10% in January. We're already off mid-December lows now at the end of December, all indications are this rally will likely carry on until February.

A 10% gain on December lows would put gold at $1938 in the next few months.
13/14% (like 2013/14 and 19/20) would put it at $2008.
17% (like 2015/16) would put it at $2061.

At any of those (potential) prices Cey (and in fact, most miners right now suffering from bond yield blues) are really excellent value right now. Cey would (likely) trade back in the 130s-140s at those margins.

If gold matches its average jan-march rally, it'll head back into 1900s, at which point Cent has scope to bounce around the 105-145 range. Still looks really swell value right now. Lower end 20% upside, upper only capped by the limits of FUD from the inflation narrative.

We'll see soon enough but gold is in a nice big bull flag just like Jan 08-Jun 09, an 18 month pause before the massive 150% 2 year rally. The current bull flag started forming 17 months ago in Aug 20, so I'd say it's about ripe to make its move.

From what I'd read previously I had Juanicipio pencilled in as coming on-stream mid-2022 anyway. So, while this means it won't be early, which would have been a boon, I think 6 months was already priced into the market's expectations. That they're still able to process development ore with the excess capacity at other plants is great. Seems really there will be no material delay in its commissioning, just a slightly inconvenient restructuring of logistics for 6 months.

Uh oh. If fool are in it's time to sell.

Gold back at 1800, Silver almost back at 23. Fres stays down nearly 2%.

Fres has a new project coming on stream THIS year. It mines silver at $14 and gold at $935 an ounce cost, so it's making insane margin even at this (relative) lull in PM prices (in an otherwise longer trend Bull run). And yet, the market is still pricing it like a dog of a share.

Yes, inflation will increase costs, but it increases costs for everyone, and ultimately works itself into the price of gold... which they sell. Margins for gold miners, of any sector, are the most defensible from inflationary pressures.

That it has lagged the FTSE, its competitors, and the gold and silver prices so much suggests something of a blind spot in the market. It still desperately wants to be "risk on", even if the profitability of risk off assets far exceed their riskier investments.