Member Info for Kando

"I intend to add but if not will either hold or sell."

At least you've got all your bases covered there. Seems like an astute strategy. Do you have a 3 sided coin to help you choose?

As an example - and I have other examples, but take a fairly similar business that went through a fairly similar battle with sentiment in both the press and the city: Frasers(Sport Direct).

Notice the squeeze in the Bollinger bands on and around 12/12/2008. The share had just lost 90% of its value over the preceding 18 months after IPO (sounds somewhat familiar right). It had spent the month prior finding a bottom at around 32p, bouncing up and down 10% from these levels. It then rose 35% in a week to 43p and found support there at 42p. 6 months later it was back at 94p. 5 and half years later it reached 924p. A 29x return from trough to peak.

I've strayed a little into what I hope to be the long term prospects for THG, but short term, the chart for Frasers in Dec 08 looks a lot like the chart for THG in Apr 22.

A few things. The squeeze in the bollinger bands, indicating the potential for a break out soon. Couple this with higher highs and higher lows, making its way back up the staircase - at least until it finds a ladder. Superficially, I'd say 107 looks to be the next resistence level with 94p then becoming support, but from what I've seen of other distressed shares who have been through similar movements to THG, I think it's as likely that, at some point soon, there's a much bigger and much quicker 25-30% increase in a 1-2 week window. When distressed shares begin to recover (if indeed this one is starting to recover - obviously the jury's still out on that) it tends to be tentative slow steps up interspersed with much bigger leaps, and we've had a number of tentative steps already over the last month. So while I would be tempted to try to sell some at 107 and buy back in, potentially, at 94, I think, this time, with results so close, that it's too risky; that this time it'll skip a resistance level or two. And that's if of course it does break out upwards like I'm suggesting - I've obviously not got a crystal ball, the runes just suggest it might. So don't trade off anything I've said, make your own mind up. I'm just quietly optimistic for the next week or two.

Sticking by it. I think it looks like it will spike towards 100 tomorrow.

Funny you should say that, because the charts look like it's ready for its next leg up. Sometime today or tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised to see it test 100p again.

Interesting, cheers for sharing.

"Deputy council leader Cllr Cathy Mitchell said the purpose of the loan is to help create jobs and stimulate the local economy.

She said the company has been ‘positively affected’ by Covid-19 and is ‘growing’, as she highlighted the trend for online trading has increased."

At least Warrington council is confident of the company's future prospects.

"please add more to the list -"

England win the World Cup.

Yes, I'm bullish long term. I think if one were to buy in the ballpark of these prices and hold patiently for 24 months you'll outperform the market. Growth/retail stocks are out of favour at the moment, but they won't be forever. The market will return to them to look for opportunities when risks recede. Short term is anyone's guess though. It *could* break lower, or the bottom could be in the past. I don't think anyone in the market really knows what it's going to do, because no-one yet knows what the broader market is going to do. All you can do is build positions at prices you're happy with. The convergence of the Bollinger bands show that it's a period of relatively low volatility, which then usually precedes a period of high volatility and thus bigger movements. In and of themselves they can't really tell you which way they're going to go, or for how long.

Or...the stock is out of favour for other reasons. Well publicized reasons. The company has a value distinct from the share price, and the share price is not always representative of inherent value, but also market sentiment and investor relations.

Actually it's been quite steady, trading in the same 10(ish)p range for over a month. The Bollinger bands are converging; it usually does this before a breakout (in whichever direction).

I've seen plenty of shares drop on good results and rise on bad ones. It depends more on what's already been priced in.

Looks fairly easy to play at the moment. Spikes up at open, drops 6-7% into the morning then bounces back at lunch. Will probably finish back at 93p.

So long as wage inflation keeps pace, consumer purchasing power is not degraded. Wage inflation is running just as hot as CPI. Excessive inflation is obviously not ideal from an economic stability POV, but it's not necessarily and automatically bad for demand, infact up to a certain point inflation increases demand.

Well it wasn't the board who made it, so I don't understand why they should be sacked. The founder made the comments and declared the ambition to. So really you're asking for the person who built the company and who is tirelessly driving it forward to sack himself. The comments were ill-advised, but if anyone had the right to make them, he did.

In theory, it could. What destroyed the share price was announcing it without any clarity as to how it would be accomplished and on what terms. If it was separated and holders were given proportionate like for like stakes in the new business, and were not materially diluted, then it's possible beauty would trade at a higher premium than, say, nutrition, or another part of the business with different margins. Personally I would prefer the company to remain whole, offering inherent diversification and resilience within the stock, and probably most existing shareholders felt that way too, hence the revolt and the share price crash. But it could more or less just be semantics, because the company isn't actually any different, and is in fact much improved, to when it listed at the higher valuation. It's a good company with exciting potential, but there was just a lot of noise followed by a lot of awkward silence and in that information vacuum, the share price suffered.

If you say so. Looks like it's been trading a fairly narrow range for a month. If anything there's more of an upward trend than a downward one.

Also:
"wait till ASOS results early next week and watch BOO dive far lower."

Not sure why people imagine ASOS results will weigh on this share when BooHoo has only just given its own quarterly trading update. The market doesn't have any assumptions to make, it already has the data, and it already decided that it wasn't bad.

No problem. For anyone that's interested, ii has the following forecasted dates for THG:

Final Results 14/4/22
Annual report 6/5/22
AGM 24/6/22
HY Results 16/9/22

They're not trying to time anything... it's always been that day since listing. The mid-month on Thursday.

Thurs 15/4/2021 FY 20 Results
Thurs 16/9 2021 HY 21 Results

ii.com has long listed the coming results day as Thursday the 14th.

So please, enough with the silly speculation and spam. They're not "timing" results, or planning on "surprising the shorters". The date isn't a secret.

Yes well done, you both won. Now move on. Stop talking to each other.

I'm not overly excited for P/E involvement, I think people here are desperate for a short term out for underwater positions. Would rather stay in to realize the company's potential.
Ocado, having slumped by nearly two thirds is still valued at nearly 10 times this market cap, yet their financials looks no better than here, and THG is growing much faster. Very similar balance sheets, similar sized revenue, smaller margins, bigger, more consistent losses - but priced more appropriately for a growing future-facing tech company. If ocado is worth 10bn, and with favourable market conditions reach 30bn, like last year, then THG could, eventually, be priced back in the same ballpark, in time. Within 6 years this could be back between over £6 and anywhere up to £25.
If ingenuity can keep signing up new clients, and get net income from just that side of the business up to 500m a year, with all the other THG divisions besides, then, with growth stock pricing in the next bull market, potentially being 20-40x earnings, then humouring me a little... a sp of £20+ is not completely fantastical by 2028.
The next 12 months though, and in the context of more bearish markets - there's going to be no way of forecasting what the sp will do, but given the current price values the company at not much more than cash on hand, and ingenuity at next to zero, it seems a fair price to enter at. Any forthcoming clarity from the company is going to help though.