Member Info for Kando

Absolutely. Softbank are in no position to spend right now, let alone at a massive premium to the current SP here.

"What is your reason? Scare poeple into selling or something else. Any rationale for your 30p? Or just fud. Certainly no courage in your supposed conviction. By sitting on the sidelines and spreading fear, you arent betting anything"

No courage? I'm waiting to buy because of my conviction. These are excellent prices, right now, to buy. I'd love to buy some at 70p to realize 300p again in 2-3 years time. That's a great return. But I'm not buying because it's too early. You get double the shares you'd get at 70p by waiting for something closer to 35p. Then that's an exceptional return. Don't fight the market. If it's going down (and I've explained before, in detail, why I think it will) then it's better to sit and wait. Don't take it personally. You are not the share, nor are you the sole bastion of defence for the share. You are riding a wave you have no control over. I'm just a guy with a surf board waiting to catch the wave at the right time, while you're still being dragged out to sea by the backwash of the last one.

"Why do they do it, none of them can ever give a satisfactory explanation"

Why do you keep saying that? You've had plenty of explanation, from many posters. That they aren't satisfactory to you is a product of your own biases and sentiment, but they are not absolute, just as ours are not. You are free to share your opinion, but it shouldn't preclude us from sharing ours.

"Kando, i'll make you the sane offer as Jongle. If you really believe what you are saying, how about a charity bet?"

The bet I am placing is that I will start averaging into a position when it drops below 50p. I don't need to wager any money with you. Investing successfully is the individual being on the right side vs the market. In a sense, I'm already betting against you (as a component of the market) by waiting to buy at a lower price when you think it will be a higher price. A charity bet isn't required.

"As an aside, if it does reach those kind of lows then there will likely be some serious/legitimate questions as to the investment case for BOO .."

There already is, hence the current share price. Inflationary and competition headwinds, coupled with a failing distribution network; the expansion of which has been unforgivably slow.

"I think it would take a further, significant profit warning and/or a significant deterioration in broader market conditions / macro economics to reach that kind of target."

Like the Q1 trading update coming in mid June? If you listen to the grapevine, Q1 has not been good for retailers. It has not been good for boo. Forward guidance here has been slashed to "low single digit growth" for the coming year so Boo may meet guidance in the most underwhelming way possible, at next to no growth at all. And if it's not growing it won't be priced like a growth stock anymore, but a stagnant company no longer making profit and with no cash left in the bank. That scenario can easily see it be valued at under 500m. It wouldn't have much going for it other than the promise of one day, maybe, possibly, sorting it out.

I think they will sort it out, and the headwinds will ease. But it doesn't stop the share price going where it's going in the meantime.

":26
OIl, Gas & mining this time of year - BOO & manufacturing late August onward.
Get some BOO for the summer."

Exactly my sentiments, as I posted. August is probably when this begins to recover. In the meantime it's got low 40s to mid 30s written all over it. Buy some boo IN the summer.

"raising prices is an ace up their sleeve."

This is more like a joker than an ace. Fast fashion is built on the competitiveness of pricing. Boohoo will rapidly lose market share to companies who resist raising prices. It's a dog eat dog sector. Raising prices in excess of the competition will act as a huge drag on sales growth for Boo.

"I would 100% give anyone my shares If they offered even double the SP now (that’s over 600k shares btw)
It’s not worth the wait- I would rather get a quick return and invest in other areas"

So you say. You take your two bagger, but I won't vote for it. You seem far too impatient for the stock market. In 5 years you clearly won't be holding this share anymore, given your temperament and disposition, but I doubt you'll have made more money in the meantime than if you'd just held.

Interesting how many of you are chomping at the bit to get bought out of your holdings on the cheap. I think, fortunately, that's not something Moulding is likely to entertain. Just be patient, the reward for that could be far far greater than any buyout. I want this company to remain public. It's a good company.

"Did you open a short position? or are you waiting to open a long position?"

The latter.

It just does not look like the bottom, that's all. And by a meaningful amount, such that starting to average in today would not have a high chance of scooping much of the bottom.

@T4G "Where i take issue is your price prediction and use of the distressed company term."
That's fair, I did not mean it as a literal distressed company, but as a distressed share price, and compared it to other companies who have had similarly distressed shares in the past - those that have hitherto tracked Boohoo's share price trajectory. None had the inflection point occur where Boohoo's share currently sits. That's only an observation, not an absolute. I'm not saying it can't be the bottom now, just that I don't feel comfortable buying in where it sits now - as much as I might like to.

"Like you say bit of patience now required"

As I said in the first post, it's still a good investment if one were to buy or carry on holding right now. It doesn't preclude it going lower in the meantime though. I'm as bullish for Boo now as I was in January, but my timeline in January was, as it says, 12-18 months or longer, as it still is. The short term is not the long term, and short term there's a bit more clarity about where this might go.

"You’ve just wrote a full essay and predicted half the share price."

This forum isn't just for ramping the bull case. It seems fair to discuss where entry points might appear in the future. If the charts suggest something might happen, no amount of someone saying it will, or saying it won't, will materially change the outcome. So why not talk about it. It might halve from here, it might not. However, I haven't yet heard a bull case that's convinced me that it can't.

"Boohoo is not a distressed company.
Why would you think it is?"

Because it's a growth stock with faltering growth; sales contraction in 2 of 4 regions, no profit, and out of cash, with only debt provision left. What part of the share price dropping 84% makes you think it's not distressed?

"JamesT1
Posted in: BOO
05 Apr 2022 12:13
VERY likely to break £1.00 and surpass it relatively easily by end of next week"

LOL right back.

Looking at the charts, and measured against comparably distressed companies both present and past, they suggest a trajectory heading into the low 40s/mid 30s in the next 2-3 weeks, finding a bottom somewhere in the 2 months that follow, before it'll have a chance to begin its long road to recovery beyond ~August.

I am still very bullish for Boohoo. Buying now, or holding now, you'll likely still have made an extremely successful investment if you can hold for 3-4 years. But yesterday's poor results coupled with an ostensibly indifferent and dilatory managerial reaction to the company's woes has changed the fundamentals and the subsequent drop has very probably broken this into a downtrend again. The Bollinger bands had narrowed in recent weeks suggesting some new breakout move was imminent, and one might have hoped on a more bouyant update that that breakout would have been upwards, but it's not, and today's bounce notwithstanding, it's very probably going to drift lower as it approaches its Q1 update in June.

It has the rudiments of a good company, but it has to react quicker, or the market will leave it behind. I'm no longer entirely convinced John Lyttle is the ideal man for the job. He's shown no real commitment to, or faith in, the company, having only sold shares he was given as remuneration, and never once bought. He's resided over a fortuitous pandemic boon for the company - a wave he rode, rather than one he made - but was in charge a full year and a half before, and during, the supplier wages scandal, which he failed to address or prevent. He's since resided over the complete failure to build any US and ROW distribution infrastructure to accomodate current, let alone future, volumes. There isn't much to credit him with and were it not for the pandemic and forced closure of the high streets, boohoo would have likely been suffering from this aneamic growth forecast much sooner. Let him go; get someone who's hungry for it and willing to take a stake in the success of the company, then the finances and share price will have a chance to soar again.

Considering Liberum were one of the more bullish brokers, cutting their target from 200 to 70, it'll likely be a fairly low target from the likes of Barclays who were already bearish at 85p, probably 40-50p. Not that broker ratings mean anything at all.

"Licker THG has dropped over 80% in the last year Boohoo about 77% which has the better potential for growth my money is still on Boo unless you can convince me otherwise."

Well, THG just posted 35.1% revenue growth YoY (95% over two years) and forecasted 22-25%. Boohoo just posted 14%
YoY and forecasted "low single digit". THG are massively expanding their capacity to accommodate growth, but Boo can't even handle their current volumes and are behind on where they need to be distribution.

So I'm not sure if your question is rhetorical, but on paper, it's very clearly THG who have the greater potential. Hence why PE is circling around them, and not around Boo.

"Ive added to my portfolio and anticipate an increase short term"

But upon what do you base that? What is going to send the price upwards when the board has done nothing to instill confidence that this is anything other than a very long term problem. They've said nothing of short term solutions, only expectations of yet more short and medium term problems. It'll very likely recover one day, but it needs change at the top, either in ethos or personnel. There isn't the sense of panic up there at faltering growth that there ought to be. This is a growth stock in a vast market of potential sales. In challenging years like this, if anything, they need to be borrowing big to fund big growth in the future, so they emerge the strongest among the competition; yet presently, it's all too tepid and too slow, and the market is punishing that.

For all the kitchen-sinking they've done with the release today: declining sales outside the UK, continued elevation in freight costs, forward guidance of low single digit growth - what's most disappointing is the perceived indifference to it all. There's no promise of expediting the expansion of the distribution network. They realized all too late last year that they were behind the curve on US distribution, but it would be easier to forgive that if they weren't taking 3 years to rectify it. Other comparable companies in the same timeframe have managed to build warehouses with 6x the capacity in less than 12 months. The lack of urgency or willingness to properly invest is what's concerning. The lead times on deliveries in the US and ROW is stymying all growth there. Americans will gladly build or sell you any capacity warehouse, at the right price. Money greases the wheel. But to propose it in early 21, and have it still projected to be 23/24 before it is operational is poor. It's far too dilatory a pace. It's costing growth, margins and brand loyalty. It's easy to be bullish long term on this share, because it can, when it's on song, be back near 400p and beyond. But short term it's hard not to be bearish. This has the look of a share that will visit lows at a 90-93% discount to the highs before it mounts any sustained recovery. That it's only 82% down now, at 70p, makes me want to sit on the sidelines until it looks more like it's found a bottom, which might be closer to 40p than 60p.

All the same, it would be nice to see John Lyttle buy some. He's only been seen to sell thus far. A vote of confidence at what should, in theory, be seen by management as a bargain basement share price would help the stock find some direction.

No, he didn't. He would have to surrender it to apply for a premium listing, otherwise it's still in place for the 3 years following the IPO.