My two cents21 May 2022 22:50
I disagree that the intention is to take this private. I think they are releasing these bids (from, at first, friendly parties) to act as training wheels for the market. A guide as to how to properly value the company, to act as remediation for the share price.
They're going to drip feed, at first small, then increasing bids - because there will be further, more genuine, bids (and from not so friendly parties) and the market will be encouraged to infer the true value of the company again, off the back of private equity valuations, and chase them back up the share price.
These bids get the ball rolling again, that's all, but the intention will not be to take this share private. There's nothing to gain from that. Moulding would be ceding his business to the very people who funded the last year's worth of negative press, co-ordinated shorting and price manipulation. Everyone knows someone was behind it all. Someone wanted this company because it's a good company, but they weren't willing to pay the going market price for it (at the time, 600p+), so instead they paid to destroy sentiment around it, to get the press to attack the valuation of its assets, to say no-one understands it, no-one can value it, to say it's probably even worthless, to attack the golden share that would stop them acquiring it, to attack Moulding himself, relentlessly, hoping he'd stand aside or step away, hoping, ultimately, to swoop in for it on the cheap.
If it looks like this to us, it looked like this to Moulding. He's spent 18 years building this company from nothing, and if they can carry on doubling revenues every 3 years then, in not very long, you will invariably earn some obscenely high valuations as a publicly traded stock. I think he has the patience to see that.
So I don't think this is what some people here hope it is - those in for a short term, and ultimately, underwhelming gain, of maybe 2-3x on an uneventful takeover. If one really entertains what genuine PE offers might be considered, you'd have to look well over £10. Matt mooted separation of the business last year because he felt 800p undervalued the business - why on earth would he accept £2.50 for it a year later, when its done nothing but grow stronger. Similarly, why would he want to take it private, at substantial personal expense, probably also diluting his own holding and allowing (what has been) a hostile party to usurp control - and taking it off the market where he can no longer profit directly from the growth of the business. Taking a business private is great if it's in the stage where it's generating high and sustained profit, but not so good in the pre-profit expansion phase. Ultimately they'd have to take it public all over again, and, probably, go through the same thing again, but on a different scale, arriving back where they started but having been diluted for the privilege. Bezos didn't take amazon private for $20 in 2001 when it dropped from $112 to $8. Neither will Matt.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
