Member Info for Kando

Another 4 new ingenuity customers added this week according to store leads, 397 total, from 393 last week.

The biggest of which seems to be Croquons La Vie, french baby formula store for nestle.

There's no point selling. There's no gain for him in taking it private. Company grew 38% last year, forecasted to grow 25% going forward, enough liquidity to last for years at current burn rate, but given they're also forecasting cash neutral coming year, and cash generative after that, there's seemingly no liquidity concerns - which is the only reason one would ever be in a hurry to sell.

So why would they sell just at the point that the stock is transiently weak, in the most verifiably fearful market on record (some indicators are showing negative sentiment beyond the levels we saw in 2008)? Why, in essense, sell at the lowest ebb, when you have a company that's seemingly indifferent to the macro. It's still growing. It's beating IPO projections. It's growing in a market full of headwinds - and it'll be gaining market share from competitors who struggle in it.

There's this vibe of desperation from certain short term traders that seems entirely projection - they NEED a buyout to flip a quick profit. They NEED it to happen to keep faith in their holding, as if a buyout is the only way this will ever be valued more favourably. But Moulding doesn't NEED it. Investors with patience beyond a few months don't NEED it. Eventually the substantive size of the company will justify the loftier valuations. It won't be a bear market forever, and it won't be floating below 1x revenues forever. But even if they do, revenues are doubling every 3 years. All Moulding, and the institutions that have built positions here, have to do is sit on their hands and focus on the company moving forward, which is all I've hitherto seen management do. Happy to hold, indifferent to takeover talks. If it happens, so be it, we'll all be bought out on the cheap for probably something presumably higher than this, so no-one can complain, but it would be a huge, disappointing opportunity cost. I believe it's vanishingly unlikely that it gets bought, and almost as unlikely anyone is in a hurry to take it back private. Jeff Bezos didn't take amazon back private in '01 when it dropped from ~$110 to $6. He rode it back up to nearly $4000. Mike Ashley didn't take Sports Direct back private when it dropped from a 300p at IPO down to 32p in '08. He rode it back up over 900p. I'm not saying THG is the next Amazon, but there's no reason it can't be the next Sports Direct. It's grown to be a sizeable company as is, but has got even greater potential and if it realizes any of it, the share price will be many multiples of this recently beaten down valuation.

For once I actually get to upvote Ste! I agree.

"Whatever happened it wasn’t PIs the selling was massive."

Well, sorry to state the obvious, but when the Nasdaq sheds over 3% at open it tends to spook the market, understandably. That inflation and consumer confidence miss in the states sent everything off the deep end. It's a little unfair to infer any negative sentiment on THG specifically. When even Amazon is down 6%, THG being down only 5 is a modest win. This too shall pass.

"Do you ever do anything but attack anyone you don't agree with?

You are becoming very tiresome. Not to mention becoming a troll."

Says the man who literally called me out by name to argue? But I'm the one attacking you? Okay. Sorry, I'll stop picking on you.

"Anyone still holding out any hope of this bid being increased next week? 10 down days in a row means the market doesn't think it is going to happen?

Anyone still positive?"

Not you, that's for sure. You're more or less the most accurate indicator in the market. When steveinhull2000 is screaming bloody murder, it's time to buy. You're the embodiment of panic. The composure of an inflatable balloon man outside a used car lot.

"So it's 4-6 years now. Want to push it out any further just to cover yourself a bit more?"

Now? Read my posting history. Since I bought this share in February-March I've been saying 4-6 years. It's not some novelty to find out ten-baggers take time. You seem to want it in a fortnight. It doesn't work like that.

"Time for you and your fellow rampers to admit you got it wrong yet?"

Who's been wrong? All I've ever said this is unlikely to go private, and that the SP will likely be many multiples of this in 4-6 years time. In fact I've told you, specifically, many times, that shares go down as well as up and not to get so upset over every candlestick. Everyone's who in for the long term investment ought to be indifferent to pullbacks or gap-fills like this. If you want to daytrade this share, that's your own gamble and your own stress, not mine.

When it gapped up I thought (read: hoped) it might turn out to be an ultimately unfilled breakout gap. It tried its best to hold it for 14 sessions, but there's just been too much macro-fear again heading into the end of this week.
It's filled it now anyway, which I think I much prefer. Sometimes a gap just hangs over a share like a sword of damocles, drawn towards it, even months or years later to fill it. But it's gone now and the share is free to carry on up again.

"Goodness Kando, that is a bearish view. 50% down from here? I really don't think so. Only if the Ukraine conflict broadens and deepens considerably.

Speaking the obvious, this is one of those occasions when the macro completely overwhelms any micro, bottom-up approach. The prospects of an investment made now, depends less on the company's position and more on a positive change in the macro picture and, as we all know, trying to time that is a mug's game. That's why everything feels like a gamble right now, not just Boohoo..."

Why wouldn't one be bearish when expecting next week's update to show quarterly yoy revenue contraction? Why wouldn't you be bearish when no insider wants to buy shares at these prices? If they don't think the share price is going up from here, why do you? They're looking directly at the books. There's also no PE interest - they're clearly not convinced there's much value to be found here either, present or future, apparently.
I think there might be value here, but at a lower price and via new management. This leadership feels like it's run out of ideas and the enthusiasm to come up with any.

Well, take your pick. Buy when you're most comfortable holding. I have said for, admittedly, a number of months, that I think this has more downside risk than upside, and that, at some point pre-recovery, will spike down somewhere near 35p. It doesn't feel like an exceptional investment right now, at 70p; it feels like a gamble. So I will wait until the upside looks more likely than downside. I think this will slide into next week's quarterly. Poor numbers posted in that, the eventual ousting of Little, the uncertainty of the replacement post-Lyttle. I think there's a lot this share has to navigate before sentiment begins to reverse.

Rumour is, they've managed to sign up Amazon. 477bn GMV. Slow and steady progress.

"This message has been filtered, please adjust your filters to view
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You don't appreciate just how much that troll spams until you've filtered him. The board is full of green boxes, again. Day after tedious day. He's destroyed this board. Very little of substance is ever talked about because he drowns it in spam. More or less every comment thread is him arguing with yet more posters, so even if you've muted him, you have to hear the ridiculous arguments he's having through everyone else's posts. I'd like this board to be useful, where people are allowed to discuss the share, whether it goes up or down, like most other boards, like they're supposed to be used. People are interested in Boohoo and its prospects, not the insipid world of T4G.

"1.28 close. open at 1.26 tomorrow and continue sliding"

At least you sold bull. Your shares are now in stronger hands.

"PrickLDM
I’m not negative. I’m long and remain long.
I’m not buying high and selling low. I’m just holding.
I just want to warn others not to take your trading “advice” that you, rather conceitedly, like to dish out, as you’re clearly an idiot."

Except... Prox was right, was he not? What exactly are you taking exception to?

"It doesn't matter how much potential there is or how good the company/product offering is, if the markets and investors don't like/believe/trust or even understand (with regards Ingenuity) in the products AND the board to deliver their best value then it will always be something that fails to reach its potential."

I disagree. I don't think it matters much at all what the market transiently thinks about the product. If the product is good, the numbers will do the talking. Their failure to understand the offering is their short term loss (and it's not that complicated, Shopify+marketing+fulfilment, a one stop shop for ecommerce), but they will probably come to understand the colour of money. If it works, if it makes the margins it claims, then it'll be valued correctly in time. In the long term it's unimportant what they profess to think, because much of it is deliberately propagated doubt anyway, to get their buying opportunity.

"not loving Boo as a company at the moment" but "I've bought some more"...?

Ordinarily betting against the housing market and the seemingly endless amount of government schemes and interventions propping it up has been a losing bet. But I think finally, at long last, with the bubble inflated to such an extent, way above and outside the long term trend corridor, that that's probably one of the safest bets out there. I think it'll revert back to that mean trend line over the next 4-6 years, and over-correct under it - as it has done every other time it's broken out above it. The press like to use the word "cool" - that the housing market is starting to "cool", but while it may not be a 2008-style precipitous "crash", I think the good money is on a protracted "correction" that'll see 7% down one year, 10% down the next, amounting perhaps, to a 20-30% total downward drift. No doubt supply is still "constrained", but this cost of living crisis, coupled with rate rises, will, one way or another, increase the number of forced sellers eventually, increasing supply, with buyers on the other side drying up for lack of credit availability as banks tighten their lending. So yeah, I know it's not THG related, but I think you'll do well on that position.

"Wow

Kando you would be slightly more believable if you ever posted that 50p graph you kept talking about"

What's to believe about what was said? You need to "believe" someone that management is poor?

And it's 35p. It's in the ballpark of 35p I forecasted. I've never claimed 50 will be bottom. If it doesn't drop lower than this, then so be it, I simply won't buy BooHoo shares. That's fine. I'll not buy at these levels, because it has far more downside potential than upside in the nearterm. That you choose not to see it because you held from 400p is no-one else's problem but your own.

"Are there any issues holding this back if there were to be one?"

Not really, but the whole sector is persona non grata right now. Just 6 months ago PE took a 50% stake in Missguided, and now it's gone. Nobody is waxing lyrical about fast fashion in 2022.

There's definitely value potential here, but only with new energy at the top. The longer John Lyttle stays, the more this becomes a high risk investment with diminished prospects. He was in post for, and resided over: the leicester wage/modern slavery scandal; a ridiculously dilatory and faltering expansion of capacity, especially in the US such that sales are now shrinking there; 80% destruction in shareholder value as a consequence. Yes, their acquisitions of failing brands have been impressive - if they can reinvigorate and monetize them, but there's no clear evidence of that yet.

The biggest and most important reason Lyttle has to go however, is his lack of conviction. He has long since sold the vast majority of his shareholding, if not all of it, and, even at 70p, doesn't trust his own management enough to buy any back now. That's all the signal you need for this company at present - no insider wants to buy the shares, even when dirt cheap. Get Lyttle out, get someone with ambition and self-belief in. Only then can Boohoo push forward positively. This, right now, just looks like treading water until a protracted collapse. Margins gone, profit gone, revenue growth all but gone, liquidity rapidly diminishing. Next comes debt, dilution, and finally administration. There's a way to interrupt that trajectory, but the leadership has to change, because the current board have so far demonstrated that they don't know how.