Member Info for Kando

It's all heading in the right direction at the moment. Oil down, natural gas way down, spot electricity prices following it down. German electricity spot price is 13 euros/mwh today - lowest all year, down from 700 peak.

The european weather forecast out into January is relatively mild and windy - which was the best case scenario. European gas storage has stopped emptying and is actually slightly refilling again and is still above 83%. It's possible the worst of the energy crisis is over and/or averted; it's possible inflation falls much faster than people think; it's even possible we enter a deflationary environment by 2024 as prices fall back, and one then has to imagine central banks pivot rather sharpish back to the low interest/cheap money environment. It's hard to see what will support prices once demand softens and underlying commodity prices normalize back towards historical averages.

"Don’t think mouldy cares about us shareholders at all. Not sure he has ever done anything positive for us."

Of course he cares. His family and friends are all sizeable holders. His charitable foundation is a shareholder.

It's all well and good saying he'll cynically take it back into private ownership, because it might seem expedient to do so, but even if he were to take them with him, that makes their holdings illiquid and locked in a company not yet generating profit that could be returned to them. I'm not sure what sort of person you imagine him to be, but he hasn't done anything thus far that would indicate to me that he would be willing to do that.

The market is what it is moniman. How the share price got here is secondary to what management are going to do to increase shareholder value going forward.

I'm, as ever, fairly bullish about the company's prospects, but still disappointed by the poor communication. Yes, they've reiterated amended guidance, great. But the market is invariably impatient with their failure to deliver on very basic, rudimentary promises. Allen's strategic review? Planned Beauty spinoff? Promised "whales in the pipeline" for Ingenuity coming "in the second half of the year"? Golden share? Sure, on that, no-one realistically would have expected Moulding to cede his golden share without meaningful SP recovery first, but again, communication saying as much would have been welcome - just so as not to invite accusations of failing to deliver on yet more, previously vocalized promises.

The only real actionable "communication" we get is arguably the most important, in the form of director buys. There's apparently still faith at chairman and founder level, but there's no real communication, and what communication there is seems to have no follow-through.

2023 needs to be better. Allen needs to justify why he's getting a salary here. So far, it looks like we've paid for him to come in, take an inside look at the books, back up the truck to scoop up undervalued shares and do... well, essentially nothing? Less "film flam" and more substance please.

The macro will improve. I want THG to lead the pack in the recovery. It needs to communicate better.

It's gone whey down.

If it's easy to drag down, it'll be as easy to drive up - once the market is ready to.

I am still invested. There's not too much to add when the narrative and indicators have essentially remained the same. I buy more when the opportunity to buy more presents.

"Has anyone noticed the high number of 1 star reviews on lookfanstic, cult beauty and myprotein since cyber week. Cult beauty is now only very good vs excellent in the h1 presentation slide
Both of my recent orders have been delayed. With LF they contacted me to inform, with myprotein I had to contact them
Clearly issues with logistics"

Not to point out the obvious, but it's largely due to the Royal Mail strikes. RM are THG's courier of choice - since they are by far the cheapest - and most reliable - for the medium to small sized parcels that make up the majority of THG brand orders. They're having to use Evri and alternatives to guarantee next day delivery times on and around RM strike dates. They're poor reviews for the final mile couriers, mostly - in the form of lost parcels, misdeliveries - not necessarily anything to do with the THG side of logistics.

"do you live on here monimum, you defo are a paid ramper, stop costing innocent folk money here"

That's a wee bit rich isn't it, Ste? With 1400 posts on just the THG board since 2021, you've commented on every single candle move in either panic or despair. "Rampers" this and "algos" that. Relax a bit, eh.

Good, never seen you post a profit in any share you've been in nuri. Buy high, sell low, scream worthless at all time lows, ramp lyrical at all time highs. That you wouldn't touch this one is frankly reassuring to me.

Maybe if you could be so obliging as to share with the board some rationale for your outlook then you might find members willing to engage with you. Spamming "crash comming???" every 6 hours isn't quite the invaluable "incite" you seem to think it is. How about you explain why you think it will crash and we'll work from there.

Dominic Commings?

"Stop acquisitions"
They have.

"Sweat existing assets and generate free cash flow"
They are scaling back into cash generation. That's always been the plan since the acquisitions.

'Buyback shares or bring an activist investor"
How will buying back shares help reassure the market when they're still funding cash burn, have a finite pool of cash, and won't be able to raise cheap capital anymore? That would be peak irresponsibility and punished, not reqarded, by the market accordingly..

"Announce a dividend if possible."
Same as above. Pay for the dividend with what? The money they need to fund operations and survive until they then cash generative? That money?

"MM should giveaway his special shares"
No, the company is now as vulnerable now to hostile takeover as it has ever been. Shareholders should be ever grateful he still has it.

"Build good relationships with the city investors"
Yes, but what does that mean?

"I'm am not a paid ramper.
Only quality incites"

Yes, quality incites from a man who cannot spell insights.

Another period of peak FUD in the wider market. Keep buying.

No oceanpassage. Negative 50p, maybe end of this week. Maybe lower? I think you're pretty deluded to think this is worth positive integers. I don't know how you can be so bullish. Are you a paid ramper?

Who knows oceanpassage :( maybe even minus 30p or minus 50p next week :((( or will it go even lower than that?

Never be in any doubt, this board does appreciate your absolutely invaluable spam.

Bizarre. It's these governance issues that make me concerned as a shareholder that the company really will go under. It's exactly what Cineworld execs did last year much to the ridicule and anger of shareholders and employees alike, and look where they are a year later...
The board at this company are acting like cowboys. No money to stop industrial action, but enough to give themselves a de facto 20% year on year payrise, and now this - a provision for another million quids worth of shares? A good look, this is not. A day after the workforce are out on strike. Definitely winning over hearts and minds there... Bizarre.

Just like we couldn't realistically have anticipated Jupiter having to liquidate more or less everything at all time lows, neither could Allen or Moulding. That's a lot of selling pressure, that arose independent of business performance, that no one but the most prescient could foresee. All anyone could do was buy in at what they considered an attractive price. Only the lucky who stumbled upon THG this morning and not a day sooner could have bought in at these prices and never been drawn by the various opportunities presented by the downswings and upswings of the last 6-12 months.

Why are you struggling? The share price isn't the business. Nothing material has changed with the business performance since it was £8. There's no rule that a sector-wide bear market has to end when one director buys. The disconnect between price and value can last as long as it needs to.

Yeah, I don't think there will be any M&A until the company has scaled into profitability again, or the equity markets recover. M&A only made sense when they were cash rich after the lofty equity raises. Only organic growth for the foreseeable. There might be bargains, but THG is already one of them. It can't afford to be seen to be eating into the very cash buffer it needs to fund the next 2 years of cash burn. That cash is it. It's all they've realistically got to work with. It looks to be more than enough to see them through, but they can't turn to the once generous equity markets to bale them out if they start eating into it prematurely. So as far as "strategy" goes: it's got to be no M&A until profitable; and a total focus on growing the brands they've already got while rebuilding margins.