Member Info for Kando

GMV does not equal revenue though OSG. I think other posters have been guilty of conflating the two, though I am not saying you are. It's not 1.5bn revenue for THG over 10 years, it's 1.5bn in GMV. It's great to add partnerships, but until we know THG's revenue from that GMV, it's not necessarily all that material. 150m GMV might only equate to say 30m in group revenue each year if THG's cut is, say, 20% of GMV for rendering the service - and after Ingenuity operating and investment costs, that might only equate to a few % margin for THG on that 150m - which is great, if compounded with similar partnerships, but it's going to take a lot of them to fill up the 14m in GMV capacity THG have built and add materially to cash generation.

"THG has cash on hand at year end of c.£470 million, with £170 million undrawn revolving credit facility, net debt of c.£200 million, reducing to c.£160 million upon receipt of £40 million of proceeds from non-core freehold asset disposals in H1 2023. "

It's literally in what you posted, THG have a net debt of c.£200m. That's not a "net cash position". They have £200m more debt than cash available and could not pay off total debt tomorrow, nor with any to spare. They are £200m short.

The fact that 3 people have recommended your post doesn't lend itself to a group of informed investors on this forum. Respectfully, if 3 of you are invested here thinking something so rudimental, that the company is in a net cash position when it isn't, I would suggest you have haven't really done your due diligence. At least know what you're invested in before you refute the opinion of others.

The activist investors don't hold big enough positions to force anything - I think you're putting far too much stock in them to effect change. Kelso's wishlist is only what the rest of the world has been asking of THG since 2021 - even the press hit-job pieces have rather snidely told them where they've been going wrong. Moulding wasn't unaware of what was expected or desired of him. Nothing in that list was novel or insightful, it was just a "you're a PLC 101."

And yes, city analysts can and do read LinkedIn... and google news feeds. They didn't miss any key updates just because they weren't RNSed. They don't live in caves.

Being a shareholder doesn't always mean being happy with everything, and being unhappy doesn't necessitate selling. Managerial failings around the last guidance was costly to shareholders, they can't be given a free pass to keep making the same mistakes. Results matter. These results matter. Miss again, or miss too much, the share price suffers more, and for longer, it's simple.

"THG only equates to less than one of the three trading divisions. Therefore if for example Nutrition is valued at zero, what on earth does it matter what its results are like this time round? They don't - that part of the company has no valuation [in this example]."

Nutrition isn't valued at zero. It's arguably the only division of THG that currently props up the group valuation. If Nutrition is moving backwards then that valuation will move backwards again. THG is currently in a net debt position, so that's deducted; the market arguably ascribes a negative value to Ingenuity given the cash being funnelled into it with no proven return; and Beauty is not considered to have the same brand moat or margin potential as Nutrition and (in the absence of divisional breakdowns on profitability so far) is also marked down to some very small multiple of its revenue. Saying divisional performance doesn't matter doesn't make it so. Doubt over individual divisions and how much they contribute and/or detract from group performance contributes in no small part to why the share price is where it is today. It's been opaque accounting that induced a lack of trust. If the arrival of transparancy validates those doubts, then how do you suppose the market will react?

Pearls, I understand your instinct to be irrationally optimistic, but the divisional results do matter. If either Nutrition or Beauty show Q1 revenue contraction over Q1 last year, then it'll be bad news bears again for the share price. The business will start to look like a spent force and heading in the wrong direction, when tagged to the winding up of OnDemand and the failed former acquisitions that equates to (zavvi, probikekit etc). There's already going to be less confidence in THG to grow and nurture its remaining brands due to the acknowledgement of those failures.

The market has more or less priced Ingenuity as the funding black hole that it currently is - maybe one day, say a year or two down the line, it will justify the investment and the ~14bn in GMV capacity it's had built for it, but it's unlikely to justify it come next week. So they're going to need robust results from Nutrition and Beauty to offset the write down of OnDemand and the Jam Tomorrow promise of Ingenuity.

SOTPs valuations only matter when they matter. At the moment, they don't matter. But even if they did, you don't want core divisions like Nutrition moving backwards. These divisional results do matter this time round, more than ever.

At least someone's looking forward to it.

There's no precedent yet for any THG interaction with the market being positive. They just *might* be moving in the right direction this time, that's true, but they also might miss on everything again. The only thing they've proven capable of with consistency is to over-promise and under-deliver. It's great that they've vocalized an intent to start doing the opposite, but that again, could just be another promise they break. When Matt guided to being "broadly FCF neutral" this year, most investors are already trying to work out just how cash flow negative that might mean. The market has priced in a miss on already more modest guidance, hence why short positions are still so elevated - it's just by how much they miss this year, that's the unknown here. It's not going to have been a blow-out quarter either. The macro just isn't there yet to support it. Revenue will be starting to drift down with the winding up of OnDemand, which accounted for 5-6% of group revenue, and margins will not yet have improved given the costs of continued operations while winding them down. It's unlikely the other divisions will have experienced enough growth and margin recovery to offset that hit just yet.

So basically I'd be expecting the kitchen sink update: Things are as bad as they're as likely to get, but jam tomorrow, the difficult decisions have been made, now everything is back on an even keell; bad divisions gone, good divisions making progress. Maybe THG gets back a positive vibe again in the market out of that, but the scale of the miss is going to matter, because that's the scale of the turnaround that needs to occur before THG becomes a viable long term, healthy cash generating business. That's what the market wants to price, but it stands ready to punish any doubt or dishonesty again.

"hTTps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-hut-groups-matthew-moulding-should-give-back-his-830m-bonus-xdr0jnnc3

He did use the funds wisely.
Whether he sold or used them for leverage he used the funds wisely.
He is a billionaire and his shareholders lost 97%"

How do you figure he is a billionaire, when he holds 183m shares in a company trading at 65p each? His holding in THG is worth about £118m. That's an awful lot of leverage if you still think he's a billionaire. Where is the other £880m you think he's worth?

"The 132.5m shares were worth £839m at last night's closing price of 633p. "

It literally says in that artcile, the bonus was in shares. It doesn't say he sold them, or invested elsewhere. There are no director dealing notifications of significant sales.

Upon receiving the bonus of shares he then had a holding of 173,056,196. He currently has a holding of 183,850,547.

That bonus was in shares, and he's been a net buyer of shares since receiving them. His networth is still very much linked to the sp.

At least the shorts materially reduced yesterday, as reported today. First time in a while that they're moving in the right direction.

Still strong conviction on the business, (lately) lower conviction on current management and leadership; even so, just a tad tedious sifting through the wallstreetbets-esque spam from the likes of Boohoorockets on this board. If he could post emojis of rockets and moons he would. Low effort spam shouldn't be applauded, that's all.

No, my average is about 55p. I've thus far only been a buyer for 12 months. I don't have the conviction in the short term to trade or short this, just accumulate on every dip.

Not being funny either, but that sentence included the important context "in 3-5 years". Has it been 3-5 years? Boohoorockets is out here informing us what the share price will be later today, tomorrow and next week, and has done for several months now. Hundreds of new threads to ramp anew. Think there's a subtle but important difference.

Since it seems the fascists in charge are now deleting Boohoorockets' posts, I thought I'd repost a curated selection of his best insights and erudite analysis so that they're not lost for posterity and future investors.

Thg heading for 70p30 Mar 2023 08:54
Up we go
Thg ready to spike north28 Mar 2023 08:33
The month chart tells the story
Thg heading for 70p28 Mar 2023 07:59
A good day ahead
Heading towards 70p27 Mar 2023 16:25
We are heading towards 70p this week
RE: Expect further rises for thg next week24 Mar 2023 16:08
Makes me laugh when anyone shows any positive comments on a company,the small brainers accuse of ramping,70p next week guys
Expect further rises for thg next week24 Mar 2023 15:34
Thg will be up further next week
Thg to test 70p next22 Mar 2023 16:15
Hold for big rewards
Thg to test 70p next22 Mar 2023 16:03
Bouncing quickly
Thg to go 60p+ today22 Mar 2023 08:16
Everyone piling back in
Thg will test 76p again21 Mar 2023 15:36
This is going to bounce as its cheap as chips
Thg be £1 in the coming weeks16 Mar 2023 13:11
Shareprice being manipulated,buy more or hold
RE: Thg be £1 in the coming weeks14 Mar 2023 09:51
Buy for the next rise
Thg be £1 in the coming weeks13 Mar 2023 08:22
Upward momentum could test 76p again
Thg on the rise again10 Mar 2023 13:40
Will test 76p again next week
RE: Thg be £1 in the coming weeks09 Mar 2023 15:42
The market turning bullish,thg be rising again
Thg be £1 in the coming weeks09 Mar 2023 14:53
The market turning bullish up we go soon
The push for £1 is on07 Mar 2023 09:07
Your getting a £1 share for 74p seems a bargain to me
Thg be £1 in the coming weeks06 Mar 2023 10:59
Thg a steal at this price,your getting a £1 share for 70p
Thg be £1 in the coming weeks03 Mar 2023 15:36
Get a £1 share today for 67p bargain
70p getting closer03 Mar 2023 12:46
We are heading for 70p today
Heading for 70p tomorrow02 Mar 2023 14:15
Nice movement today

There are obviously hundreds more, but those should suffice to clue up any new investor as to the merits and demerits of an investment in THG. GLA!

Well, if it had come, even absent an RNS, don't you imagine it would have leaked by now?

"But even poor numbers could see a rerating if we get positive outlook, confirmation of timing on premium listing, detail of ingenuity US listing plans, more info on GS expiry."

Given the creditability issues Moulding has sown, watered and nurtured over the years, all of that will be discounted to nought. He can give whatever outlook he likes but after the last guidance debacle it'll carry no weight at all, same re: golden share, relisting prospects and everything else. It's all been said and reneged on before. Only execution matters now.

Pearls has posted this 3 or 4 times now and I'm sure he'll post it again. He's been corrected before and he'll be corrected again, but he won't let that get in the way of a good ramp. He's indominatable. So what if his trusty calculator has casually doubled revenues for 2023. I for one support his calculator's insane level optimism.

Fantastic news. Thank you Boohoorockets.

The reality is, the only thing that really matters is where Boohoorockets says the share price will go. The rest is just flim flam.

Steve's right though. This share is so easy to dump because it's so easy to pump. Collectively the press, and specifically the Times, have printed much which turned out to be unsubstantiated speculation written as assertion. Until it's confirmed in a share register or by Sparta then it's still just another (possibly baseless) rumour.