Member Info for Kando

Indeed. The current trend lines suggest you might have an opportunity to buy at a good discount by Thursday.

If it falls through that lower bound line though, I'm not sure where it's heading.

And sorry, not sure you'll see 85.2 as any sort of support? What's that based on?

It's the ongoing pullback in global equities that will have the outsized impact on share prices, here and elsewhere. Company fundamentals might be fine and improving, but it doesn't matter very much if the market switches to risk off.

There's a number of things guiding sentiment.

For one, the market is weighing up the Chinese slowdown and unfolding financial turmoil; waiting to see whether this turns out to be China's Lehman Brothers moment. If China begins to struggle, it'll have impacts everywhere.

The higher for longer narrative is finally starting to bed in, with service inflation and wages heading in the wrong direction (wrong for the central banks). All the potential rate cuts that were being pencilled in are now being pencilled out and replaced with more rises or longer pauses. Not great for the consumer or equities, especially now that the consumer is already starting to show the first signs of weakness.

Then there's the settling and deflating of the AI froth that's propped up the S&P and tech. It's not yet proven to deliver the revolutionary productivity increases it promised, so that bubble is rightsizing closer to reality.

Mid 60s is the next key support level, having failed to find any at 93p.

A rally seems optimistic, but a bounce up to ~95p is possible.

"Today's fall is an unexpected buying opportunity for many - I hope those who were waiting on the sidelines are now getting [back] in."

People have been posting since Monday that this was coming. It fell through the 3 month trend line, then yesterday had a failed breakout back above it. All very bearish signals, even ignoring the wider market sentiment.

The next support level is in the 60s. I'm not sure anyone is going to be rushing in yet.

Pearls. It rose over 100% in 3 months, how is a rally overdue? It is the pullback and consolidation that was overdue.

It's not about the company osg. When the tide goes out, the tide goes out, and every boat can get grounded no matter how big, small, good or bad.

Market forces are bigger than any individual company.

It fell right through 93p support. That was the key level if it was going to bounce. Next support is 66-69p (depending on when it meets the rising lower trend line).

We buy a 2.5kg bag of Impact Whey Protein monthly/every 6 weeks or so. They had been drifting down in price in the early part of the year, but Cong is right, lately (and by lately I mean the last two months or so) they have crept back up regardless of discount codes. The £55.19 it currently is, is some £10-11 higher than 6 months ago.

Would be fine with this, if it doesn't result in customer retention losses, but that seems like an uncompetitive direction of travel given that underlying whey prices have and continue to fall through the floor.

Fair enough Oke.

AFAIK ASOS's net assets are 793m.

Boohoo, as you say, 400m

By definition, net asset figures already include the debt.

I'm happy to answer your questions t4g but I think you posed them rhetorically.

I'd just say, a year ago I posted here that the charts looked like it would go to 35p. I'm just saying, today, they look like they might - I'm not saying they will, but they might, go a bit lower this time. Again, based wholly on the charts. Boohoo may well still be good on paper, I'm not disputing that, I'm just trying to read the runes on the market, as I'm sure we all are. I doubt you would categorically rule out Boohoo retesting 32p at this stage, since it looks likely to do. It just might hit that sooner than the bottom in the rest of the market, giving it scope to be dragged down further.

ASOS has 731m in LT debt, 308m in cash. Boohoo has 325m in LT debt, 330m in cash. Given that ASOS actually returned to profitability this quarter, and by revenue, is over double the size of Boohoo. I'd say their relative strength is not dissimilar.

Personally, I adjudge ASOS to be a better company, given that more of Boohoo's demographic is Shein's demographic, which it has a fight to compete against. The fact that Boohoo is trading around a similar market cap to ASOS suggests Boohoo could still be considered somewhat overvalued.

32 is definitely a key support, but the way the market is shaping up for the next few weeks, this could overshoot again (it dipped as low as 30p last September). It's possible if 32 falls, there might be opportunity at 25-26. Boohoo has yet to suffer the same peak to trough % fall as ASOS has, seemingly without much reason, given how much they otherwise track each other. 25p would bring that discount closer to ASOS and other peers.

What it does at 93p is key to how this pullback plays out.

Ouch, based on 1 post this morning on Boohoo? 🙈

I don't short. Always long THG; my highest conviction position. Just sharing what the charts look like, the trend lines for the short term.

"fairly volatile" is a bit of an understatement ^^

Bit of a failed breakout there.

Wait for 32p?

Probably, but there are people who panic at 10% movements, worried that it means something fundamental about the company. Not everything is a cause for concern, that's all. Sometimes it's just normal price movements and consolidation - and sometimes the charts can give a heads up when that's happening.

Make of this what you will, but the arbitrary lines I have drawn on my chart have this testing 93p by Tuesday next week. It ought to find strong support there if it did, but if the pullback continues beyond that, it wouldn't find too much until reuniting with the ~68p trend line, by early-mid September.

This morning it bounced down off the underside of a new descending trend line at 101 that started 2 weeks ago, so far confirming that trend, so unless it can break above that the short term forecast is a bit rubbish.

That's all in the context of the wider market looking a bit downward trending, at least for the next few weeks. Just to gird yourself somewhat against what could be a few red days in the pipeline.

True, it's all been very good lately. It's been in this uptrend, albeit a very erratic one, since October last year, bouncing around in an upward sloping channel, so the long term trajectory certainly looks good.

It did concern me yesterday that it fell through the most recent 2-3 month trend line though. Below that is support at 93p, which is where it also intersects a much longer term trend line around 92.5.

Below that there's not much. There's a lower bound trend line that's been retested 4 times in the last 10 months which currently lies around 66p; which would be another higher low after the last month testing higher highs. After such a strong 100% rise since May, the way the price action has looked over the last week and a half feels like some form of pull back and consolidation period is here, I'm just not sure what that will look like, which makes me nervous.

That's just my reading of the charts though, does anyone have a more optimistic short term forecast? :?