Member Info for Kando

Yes, that'll be the opposite agenda to yours.

There's a worrying amount of hopium still being consumed in this forum. A lot of rose tinted fudging of the finances to make things seem significantly more promising than they are.

All that debt pile, that a couple of years ago was in the distant future, will start maturing in 2025, which is now less than 16 months away. If higher for longer is a thing 16 months out; if THG still hasn't figured out how to turn a profit, then what? Where does the money come from?

Too impatient Tigger.

Oh dear. Well, shucks. I guess we're not to discuss the company on the company stock forum.

Wouldn't want to spread negativity. Positive vibes only ✌️

If you say so. The company finances say that "something special" isn't worth much and won't even be FCF positive until at least 2028, but very possibly, never.

The vast majority of Ingenuity's revenue is from THG's own brands. There clearly isn't much appetite for their offering, regardless of how much name dropping and token partnerships they sign. How much are they doing for L'Oreal? How much do they make off them?

Ingenuity looks dead in the water. If it ever had a moat or commercial appeal, it appears to now be gone. Amazon, Shopify and a dozen others now offer much or all of the full stack offering of Ingenuity. So THG have to do it better, or they have to do it cheaper. I'm not sure either are realistic when competing with better capitalized behemoths. THG can't seem to turn a profit so will never have the revenue to compete. The uptake on Ingenuity is all you need to know. It's not been good. The whales never really came. An almost bankrupt high street retailer in Matalan is not exactly the calibre of whale they'd need to be landing. Ingenuity needs to be wound down, capex slashed, and limited to servicing beauty and nutrition,.

What's not to like... He's nothing if not consistent at delivering profit warnings and missed guidance (when he had the data to know he would miss guidance when he gave it). He's proven himself to be knowingly dishonest, or okay, let's say "overly enthusiastic" with the truth. He says what he hopes for or wants to see, but not what actually is. Add to that the exhausting victim complex he's got going on, he doesn't exactly exude the calm assurance and professionalism befitting a CEO of a billion dollar enterprise. He's too busy raging against the machine and ignoring failings closer to home.

It seemed to ever so slightly drop below the year long lower bounds trend line on the hourly, by about 0.3p, when it dipped to near 88. If that support really has been gone at the first attempt, then there might be further downside risk.

It's an unprofitable growth stock that stopped growing and started shrinking, all while staring down the barrel of inverted yield curves in all its major markets. When the recessions finally start showing up, this is not going to solve this stock's problems; it will accentuate them.

""Have had offers for Nutrition at multiples of today's market cap"

LOL!!!

What a crazy market."

So says a CEO with very limited credibility.

How will this fare when the US opens?

"Well worth listening to the reply to the question on seperation.

Bids for various divisions and specifically the end of last year and this year for Nutrition alone. Did state specifically not for sale but looking at partnerships but specifically state that maybe the time will come in the not too distant future when interests may be better served as a seperate listing."

Aren't these the same old answers to the same old questions. As per, he knows what he has to say to keep the gullible on side. Tease separation, tease premium listing, tease partnerships, tease free cash flow positive. Jam tomorrow and those of infinite faith accept it, from a man with an unflinching record of misleading the market and failing to deliver.

Anyway, it finally just touched that trend line. What it does now will suggest bullish or bearish.

Cong, I post in the hope someone will have a discussion. No-one here has the sort of holdings, buy or sell, to materially tank or inflate the share price. Nobody's trying to push a "FUD agenda". Instead, any discussion of the short term downside risks are met with a host of seemingly insecure folk getting their backs up, as if what is said here has any bearing on the company or price. People like Rock were happy to engage on the technicals, suggesting, for example, that 86 was support, but I didn't really see it and asked for justification, but again, as is usual, it all got shouted down so went no further.

Oxford, if you don't believe in technicals, that's fine. If you don't believe there's ever such a thing as a sell signal, and that there is only one big fundamental based buy signal, that's fine. That's your trainset, but it isn't everyone's.

I'm sorry that I don't care much about FUD merchant agenda. We're here to make money. Shares go down as well as up. Sell on highs, buy on lows. That's more or less the game. Some people here play it, some want to discuss it. Not much point in a forum that's a 24/7 ramp fest - if no one here can countenance a pullback then the discussion is invariably disconnected from the reality of the market 50% of the time, making it useless.

It's possible to be see bullish long term trends while avoiding bearish short term ones. Buy and hold is just one way to do it. You do you.

👋

But there isn't much support beneath 93p. I'd said it could test mid 60s by mid September. Briefly there was an accelerated downtrend that would have seen it test that by today, but it broke back out of that with this bullish rebound, but so far it hasn't broken back above the main trend. Sorry, I'm not meaning to downtalk the company or anyone else's positioning, I just like discussing what the charts are looking like to me.

It really wants to reach out and boop 👉 that trend line at 92.5. Should make it soon. Be interesting what happens after, given asos and boohoo are both busy tanking back whatever gains they made this morning.

I wouldn't say ignore the short term, no. I'd say they're just as valid as the long term trend. Minute and hourly candlesticks tell as much of a story about direction as daily candlesticks. I agree the 6 month trend is positive, but it's travelling within a channel, and within that channel it will test the upper and lower bounds. At the moment, the candlesticks still suggest it would like to test the lows of that channel before moving on to test the highs again. And that seems to align with the general sentiment in the market at the moment, Nvidia froth not withstanding.

It was, for a short lived accelerated downtrend that it quickly broke back out of Tuesday morning. It's since been giving off some bullish signals and subsequently rallied some, back to test the original, much more established trend line. It could be bullish still, or it could be a bull trap. It won't become clear until it's tested that main trend line more.