Member Info for Kando

Thank you Boohoorockets.

Thank you Boohoorockets.

Marshall Wace will invariably be right and it'll drop lower again, at some point - the current trend line for the higher lows now sits about 51-52p were it to test that again. But having been right before, they never seem to unwind their short positions when they are. They seem very lazy and unreactive to share movements and ostensibly make very little money out of it all. They didn't unwind any of their position when it dropped to 32p and watched it bounce back to 80p, instead, all the while they were increasing; then didn't close any when it dropped again to 42p and watched it climb back to 75p; then watched it drop to 51p, and still didn't close, but again added. So at what point do they decide to make money? Since holding these significant short positions comes with servicing costs, where are they making any material profit out of this? They could have closed their shorts at lows and added back on every bounce, instead they seem to add when low, hold them when lower and, if ever, close them when high - like during the summer bidding frenzy. I think we perhaps give them too much credit. I think they're just blanket perma-bears, trying to play the macro sector-wide, and not paying enough attention to the composite parts therein.

In that example, the short position was in July 2021, the long position disclosure July 2022. They weren't necessarily building a long position while they were short.

Speaking of, Marshall Wace increased their short position again yesterday.

Well, to be fair to boohoorockets, he's always been close. He said two weeks ago it would test 76p again last week, and it tested 50p, so he was very close. He also said last week it'd be over £1 in the coming weeks, so one must assume that could be next week? So 70p Monday, £1 by Friday?

OK, I'll start expecting it, thanks.

Thank goodness for that.

Between Pearls casually doubling THG revenue with his trusty calculator and Boohoorockets' extensive knowledge of share price movements, holders clearly have nothing to worry about anymore.

Time for a new calculator, Pearls.

"At the end of last year, we launched a single chocolate protein drink across 15,500 FamilyMart Co.,Ltd. stores in Japan via a licensing deal."

This is what Moulding's post was about and what you, correct me if I'm wrong, just called for him to issue an RNS for?

An RNS to announce the sale of a chocolate milkshake? Cmon now.

I'm not so sure. I think people bandy the Italians around like some perennial example of a country always on the verge of collapse, but they've been considered such for at least the last 20 years since joining the Euro and have yet to. The reality is, that in this period of uncertainty where all banks are under intense scrutiny, Italian banks have yet to show any material cracks. If they do in the future, it would likely be because of a wider global banking collapse (that is still avoidable) and cross contagion, not any problems unique to Italy or Italian banks. The same conditions that would similarly impact UK banks, but more so, given the larger scale and broader reach of the UK banking sector. It's the UK banks closer to home I'd have more concern about if dominos start falling. Sunak and Bailey having to reiterate how strong and resilient UK banks are is probably enough indication that there's concern in higher places about contagion here. Credit Suisse CEO was saying exactly the same thing about his bank's resilience and liquidity on the Friday before the Sunday they were folded into UBS.

Well, that's still a rumour, not news, and I expect there will be no bids at least until Moulding's veto expires. Why would there be? It's not quite the sword of damocles hanging over them that some seem to think. They can still be wrong and miss the natural recovery of the share price, but I still very much doubt there will be any big short busting RNS. Instead, they will probably have time to unwind it in their own time.

The tide is more likely to have turned once Marshall Wace start reducing their short. They have hitherto maintained and increased a position of significant conviction that there's yet more weakness to exploit, and whatever one might think of them, they haven't been wrong all that many times in their positioning over the duration and depth of this market cycle. I'd of course like for them to be wrong this time, but it's hard to have faith that Moulding and the board won't contrive to disappoint again for Q1 - which I imagine is the source of their conviction, considering how dependable that has become.

"This shares v strong now HH. Tide is turning I think."

Based on what though? Again, call it cynicism, but was the tide also not turning in the 50% rally from 24th of just last month? Or the 150% rally from Oct 22?

Every unexplained rally at this point ought to be treated with the same skepticism as every unexplained fall. It's all meaningless manipulation if there's no news to support it. Various players are pumping these shares, then shorting them back down, repeat ad nauseum. Pump them up, ride them down, week after week. Spontaneous, spineless rallies that get surrendered again so easily are just another symptom of the weakness in this share, not necessarily strength. If it holds a rally this time, it'll be a welcome novelty.

Such an insight, thanks.

Well, if it makes you feel any better 1pencil. I still wouldn't accept 200p. There's more value there than that. I'm just trying to identify the roadblocks to unlocking that value and for much too long now, it has been Matt's miscommunication with the market. How recently he issued and missed that guidance, and how recently he humble bragged about the ongoing dilution of shareholders indicates to me, that while things might have progressed a little in terms of tone from the capital markets day, that there's still a lot of room for improvement. I want it to improve. Ideally I'd want him to get it right, but eventually, shareholders with bigger holdings than mine are going to make sure it is done right.

My assumption and again, call me cynical, was that he'd sold the double digit growth to creditors to help secure terms on the additional finance that was announced around that time. Fitch's October B+ rating lists certain assumptions to justify the rating, one of which being FY22 achieving 12% growth. So he couldn't then admit, within the same month, that growth would in fact likely be a quarter of that. He was caught either misleading creditors, or misleading the market, and he chose the latter. He shouldn't have misled either. That's the problem here. He had those rose-tinted glasses on again and he eroded what little confidence the market had in the company, and once again, the share price got hammered.

"Kando, what happened to you fella? You used to say this was worth 10 pounds a share. 2 quid takeover bids should be rejected out of hand etc etc
Strange to go from so pro to so cynical. I always respected your views a lot"

That's fair. I am much more cynical about the leadership this year. I'll be honest, the massive guidance miss at 60 days notice was really difficult to forgive. I think it more or less was and is unforgivable. I've yet to hear an explanation or excuse as to why it happened or how it was allowed to happen. He really has exhausted all credibility with me, in spite of the confidence I have in the underlying value of the business and brands beneath him.

I still believe it can be worth 10, quite easily, in the 4-5 years I said last year, but it's starting to feel like it could take much longer than that, much longer than it needs to, with an unrestrained (and apparently unadvised) Matt sat front of house, issuing guidance that they're guaranteed to miss, and making promises he seems guaranteed to break. I think he should focus on running the business and pushing for organic growth, in Nutrition especially - which is the real potential engine of the business, and let someone else, without the rose tinted glasses he clearly can't live without, handle the market and communications.